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Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

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Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#51

Post by rottencupcakes »

rplnt wrote: post #37
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening.

August 2004:

AAPL $16

Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh)

Now:

AAPL $447

Google $576/share

447/16 ~= 27.94

85*27.94 ~= 2374.90

So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. Their value went down a massive amount in six years.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#52

Post by CyrusL »

arturnt wrote: post #38
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

When Google went IPO their valuation hovered around 30B, compare that to Facebooks 3 times that, now nearing 90-100B in the private markets. Companies are staying the private markets a lot longer so by the time they hit the public market they are already overvalued/valued appropriately. I doubt Facebook will see exponential growth initially until they have healthier profit numbers. Unless a lot of amateur investors b…

It doesn't even require a lot of amateur investors to drive it up beyond reason, just the belief that there will be a lot of amateur investors. Who cares if I paid a stupid price if I can sell to them at a stupider price? Some people call this the "Greater Fool Theory."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#53

Post by samstave »

draggnar wrote: post #41
samstave wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My (sure to be wrong) Facebook predictions: * The Facebook Phone * The Facebook Netbook * Major user datamining product sales to global governments * Acquiring binge (gaming, education (I think they will go for Khan Academy) * video hosting * Their own voip platform Facebook still has a lot of room to innovate, not that they would necessarily be successful in each iteration. But I would say that the number one thing…

if only zynga was so smart to make fun learning games instead of hamster cages

Heh - you'll have to wait for someone else to make a fun learning game - then Zynga can copy it.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#54

Post by mkr-hn »

RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

Remember: Google was a search engine, and Amazon was a book store. Facebook doesn't have to stay a social network, and there are plenty of things they can do with their resources. There's a lot you can do once you have a global network of users assembled.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#55

Post by gravitronic »

rplnt wrote: post #37
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

It may be interesting to compare growth VS gold.. but is it standard to compare against the price of gold?

I know nothing of valuation, but by that logic the price of gold would never be worth more.. than.. the price of gold?

I thought you'd value the gain in the market currency, aka dollars. No?

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#56

Post by rplnt »

rottencupcakes wrote: post #51
rplnt wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: AAPL $16 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: AAPL $447 Google $576/share 447/16 ~= 27.94 85*27.94 ~= 2374.90 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. Their value went down a massive amount in six years.

Now, this is stupid.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#57

Post by freehunter »

samstave wrote: post #33
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

My (sure to be wrong) Facebook predictions: * The Facebook Phone * The Facebook Netbook * Major user datamining product sales to global governments * Acquiring binge (gaming, education (I think they will go for Khan Academy) * video hosting * Their own voip platform Facebook still has a lot of room to innovate, not that they would necessarily be successful in each iteration. But I would say that the number one thing…

The Facebook Phone actually is planned.

http://allthingsd.com/20111121/the-facebook-phone-its-finall...

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#58

Post by byrneseyeview »

RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

Google was underpriced at the IPO; there's no indication that stocks should be systematically underpriced to the same extent.

Since Google went public, investors have learned a lot more about how these business models work, and how quickly they can build durable competitive advantages.

If "Can it go up 5X" were the threshold for going public, investors would price this in, so the actual threshold would drop.

The bull case for Facebook is basically that it's by far the cheapest platform for spreading memes--whether those memes are shared infographics, political slogans, or, say, the existence of Gap's latest sale. Plus, FB owns identity in a way few other sites can match--even Google only owns identity around the ages (they know what you want but don't yet have; Facebook knows more about who you are). Through credits, FB essentially owns a piece of any successful business built on its platform; if it were a country, $100bn would not be an excessive valuation to put on the net present value of its future taxes collected, less collection costs.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#59

Post by rplnt »

CyrusL wrote: post #47
rplnt wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

It's weird that you critiqued his analysis by using gold, which makes no sense for comparison. You might have strong feelings about unbacked paper money, but that doesn't make comparing with gold a sound financial model. August 2004: Orange Juice Concentrate Futures $61 Google $85/share Now: Orange Juice Concentrate Futures $211 Google $576/share 211/61 ~= 3.45 85*4.27 ~= 293.25

You just can't compare to one currency and say it costs 5 times more. What I tried to say was that USD's value changed over the years. Apparently no one understood and everyone is trying to be funny. Sad.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#60

Post by jrockway »

rplnt wrote: post #37
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

> Wall Street made a mistake with Google, since now their shares now are worth 5 times as much as they were at the opening. August 2004: Gold $405 Google $85/share (thought it was $100/share, huh) Now: Gold $1735 Google $576/share 1735/405 ~= 4.27 85*4.27 ~= 364 So no, Google's shares are not worth 5 times more. They value went up some 50% in six years, which is great but nothing scary.

It's also possible that gold is not a good indicator of value. (Go to the store and try buying something with gold.)
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