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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#101

Post by dcposch »

Chris2048 wrote: post #48
otherme123 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.

> if accompanied with guarantees of no further aggressions Which Russia cannot provide since they already promised not to invade.

After how this one went, it seems very unlikely they'd try again unless Ukraine was somehow disarmed first.

(Disarmament was one of the Russian asks during yesterday's negotiations. It was rejected ofc.)

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#102

Post by mattmanser »

awb wrote: post #78
imwillofficial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

Were these reported by mainstream / reputable sources? I only saw them on social media. But I did see a source that radiation did rise around Chernobyl, probably due to dust getting kicked up by vehicles and foot traffic.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/ukraine-soldie...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/zaporizhzhia-n...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#103

Post by imwillofficial »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #73
imwillofficial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

The nuclear reactor was shelled. I saw it live. Doubt it had anything to do with radiation though.

It was not shelled, there was a small firefight involving a training building outside the reactor complex. Shelling means artillery. No artillery was involved.

You did not “see the reactor get shelled live.”

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#104

Post by otherme123 »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #57

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

There was a saying in falling Germany in 1944: "each day our victories are closer to Germany than the previous day".

You can follow the bombings, for example: if Kyiv is being shelled (and reported in Russian media), it's not under Russian control. If the shelling last for days, the city is holding.

If some city was being shelled, but there are no more news about it, but the news are a nearby and further city is being shelled, the first city is probably under Russian control.

Following that kind of info, it seems the Russian invasion is crawling, and not running as intended. Russia is not doing much better (but not as bad as "reported" in Reddit, for instance).

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#105

Post by tada131 »

usaphp wrote: post #56
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US. I like to imagine that Russia will have a much more difficult time in Ukraine where they are almost universally despised.

> The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US Russians also think that most Ukrainians support Russia, it doesn't mean it's true. Same with believes that most Iraqis supported US.

Most Ukrainians are forced to support Russia because the way how Zelensky "defends" Ukraine by freeing prisoners and giving advice to fight with Molotov cocktails.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#106

Post by jcadam »

k__ wrote: post #91
wackro wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>call Putin's nuclear bluff. And what do you think would be the outcome?

Someone in power in Russia would see the issue and "remove" him. The replacement could then spin it as being a good replacement and play by the rules of the west.

When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#107

Post by rdiddly »

krastanov wrote: post #86
imwillofficial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

I think you are conflating media and social media. If any of these stories were picked by something like NYT, it would be "here are some examples of local stories going around to strengthen the morale", never as "truth". Actually, even reddit comments were generally "I know the Ghost is made up, it would be silly to believe it, but gosh, it is a good story". Moreover, the radiation in Chernobil did rise (measurably,…

The question was about propaganda, which happens on both social media and traditional media.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#108

Post by q1w2 »

nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

They are also getting fresh soldiers.

I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1].

I've also been on Telegram channels helping American vets organize, fund their flights to Poland, equip, and then drive them to the Ukrainian border.

These are highly motivated well equipped men - many are veterans. Assuming these data points are accurate, then Russia's odds of victory are going down by the day as more western men and supplies enter Ukraine each day than Russian men and supplies.

[1] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/west-sends-mercenaries-to-fi...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#110

Post by twblalock »

xxpor wrote: post #74
twblalock wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total co…

>Kyiv cannot hold out forever. I agree with that, but if it takes going Full Grozny or Idlib on them, what's the point, other than saving face?

Saving face matters a lot for dictators, who often lose power if they embarrass their countries. For Putin this is now a matter of personal survival. He will do whatever it takes to avoid an outcome that makes him look weak to the Russian public -- he clearly doesn't care what the rest of the world thinks of him at this point.
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