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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#101

Post by [deleted] »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #58
jcfrei wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

[deleted]

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#102

Post by mhh__ »

xxs wrote: post #47
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

Obviously the EU is not a country legally but one of the things that makes this invasion into a spectacular geopolitical backfire is that Putin's war in Ukraine seems to have suddenly made the "EU" kick into life over defense.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#103

Post by mellavora »

api wrote: post #73
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

Advantage of a democracy (nitpick: nominally democratic republic) is that it offers a bloodless way to replace the government.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#104

Post by dmos62 »

xxs wrote: post #47
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

Kaliningrad is of strategic importance for holding the Suwalki corridor, a.k.a. NATO's most vulnerable choke point. It doesn't matter whether it's poor or not.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#105

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

api wrote: post #73
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

The American public believes that Saddam had WMD and was collaborating with bin Laden. In that bubble two of those wars were a success.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#106

Post by tokai »

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #86
_ph_ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Afghanistan was bad, but they were almost forgiven internationally, especially as one could pretend "that was the Sovjet Union". But with the invasion of the Ukraine, that is all washed away, Russia is as ugly as the old SU.

So far, the only major power who hasn't (yet) invaded Afghanistan is China. And I don't recall anyone invading it legally .

The Tang Dynasty held the territory we now call Afghanistan. But thats ~1500 years in the past so I don't know if it counts.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#107

Post by env123 »

It's just a declaration of core claim, it's not like Japan will actually do something about it at this point. When Japan is finally free from the shackles of western hegemony and able to build up militarily like it used to, then it might do something about it. Remember, geopolitics is about perception of power and "alliances", nothing to do with morality or freedom

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#108

Post by thematrixturtle »

rwmj wrote: post #49
_0w8t wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it looks like Japanese government just reminded about the position they always had that southern Kurils were occupied by Russia illegally. But the timing of the reminder is interesting.

I didn't realise it was such a big thing until I visited a festival in Hokkaido a few years back and there was a very large and busy stall soliciting signatures for a petition over the Kurils and with lots of photographs and maps. It seemed slightly delusional (but mostly harmless) to me at the time, but now - who knows?

It's pretty delusional even in Japan, nobody seriously expects Russia to return them. Early in the post-Soviet era there were some serious-ish proposals about Russia handing them back in exchange for massive financial aid, but ever since Putin took the reins it's been obvious that this is just not going to happen.

I don't think even the Japanese government wants them back at this point, Hokkaido (the nearest big island) is already rapidly depopulating and having to administer a bunch of semi-frozen islands with random Russian pensioners and no resources aside from fish would be a logistical nightmare and permanent drain on the treasury.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#109

Post by s1artibartfast »

belter wrote: post #48
Freak_NL wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When asking the question “what is the value of those islands/rocks-in-the-sea?” the answer is always 'EEZ boundaries'. I.e., having extra bits of land in the middle of the sea enlarges your exclusive economic zone where you can exploit resources in the ocean and below the ocean bed (oil) significantly. Which is why so many disputes exist over really boring bits of rock jutting out of the water.

EEZ boundaries are huge. Up to 200 miles from your coast.

Yeah. A 1 square meter rock can grant 125,000 km2 of EEZ. Hence island disputes.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#110

Post by thombat »

xxs wrote: post #47
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

"Germans effectively left" makes it sound almost voluntary:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evacuation_of_East_Prussia#K%C...

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