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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#101

Post by varispeed »

geeky4qwerty wrote: post #72
onemanstartup wrote: post #49

3 days to Blitzkrieg? - Fake.

This one was definitely a red flag for me regarding authenticity. It seems far more like a slow surge offensive, siege technically. Look at US in Iraq, shock and awe was more akin to "blitzkrieg" and even that campaign took 3 weeks to secure Baghdad.

I'd say one theory I have to back this up is that Germany was briefed by Russia about the imminent invasion and Germans were asked to stall sanctions until Sunday (3rd or 4th day of invasion) as it will be over by then. When it became clear that invasion is not going to plan, Germany changed their stance 180 degree. Unfortunately I cannot give source for that, but you can follow official German briefings from when the invasion started until Sunday to see the behaviour matches.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#103

Post by [deleted] »

quantum_mcts wrote: post #53
belter wrote: post #41

Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake. The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituat…

1. The original text in Russian is much more chaotic - translator imposed his own structure on it and tweaked clumsy phrasing all over the place. 2. They say that the latest Putin's video is green screened

[deleted]

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#104

Post by greggsy »

fareesh wrote: post #55

Given the recent track record for lies coming out of both Ukraine and Russia, it's probably best to treat everything as propaganda unless proven otherwise in some meaningful way.

> best to treat everything as propaganda unless proven otherwise

This comment is always near the top of any HN or Reddit post, and while it’s not wrong, it’s almost a cliche at this point.

There is clear misinformation being pumped out, but there is room to discuss should why it might be misinformation, and to understand why someone might have spent time carefully producing it.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#106

Post by NicoJuicy »

trhway wrote: post #25

>The Blitzkrieg failed. It's entirely impossible to complete the job at this point. If in the first 3 days Zelensky and some holders of power were captured, all key buildings in Kiev were taken, and the order to surrender was given, then yes. Resistance would be minimal. that is their main miscalculation. The FSB in Russia these days are fat lazy pigs who can only racket business and screw the lives of basically defe…

Don't forget that the Russians practically trained Ukraine for 8 years and they got additional training/arms from the west in the meantime.

Russia was getting much less efficient in Ukraine and the situation was pretty dire ( water was cut off)

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#107

Post by forum_ghost »

junon wrote: post #37
eterevsky wrote: post #24

It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

when was the last time bellingcat published anything that was not in favour of the western spin? Perhaps the houthi drone strike, but even then you could view it as downplaying houthi's capabilities.

The claimed "fact" that bellingcat somehow has FSB contacts that are willing to verify material seems like even bigger stretch.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#108

Post by glogla »

eterevsky wrote: post #24

It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).

Whether fake or not, it is definitely adding some perspectives I didn't see up until now. For example, I have not considered the possibility of Kadyrov position not being very stable if he loses (or already lost) his soldiers in something that was supposed to be short and glorious war.

Same with how does Russia keep their Syria effort supplied when their logistics in Ukraine are already stretched.

So this is definitely written by some analyst, but who knows if from FSB.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#109

Post by esperent »

greggsy wrote: post #104
fareesh wrote: post #55

Given the recent track record for lies coming out of both Ukraine and Russia, it's probably best to treat everything as propaganda unless proven otherwise in some meaningful way.

> best to treat everything as propaganda unless proven otherwise This comment is always near the top of any HN or Reddit post, and while it’s not wrong, it’s almost a cliche at this point. There is clear misinformation being pumped out, but there is room to discuss should why it might be misinformation, and to understand why someone might have spent time carefully producing it.

I think it's good that's it's always near the top. There should be a sticky added to the top of every political post here. Something like:

> Reminder: there's a war going on and one of the main weapons in modern warfare is propaganda. The propaganda will come from both sides and also from third parties. Be mindful that any political articles may be intended to manipulate you.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#110

Post by throwaway290 »

itsailor wrote: post #34
jacquesm wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well thank you for that incredibly useful contribution. No, not all information in this note is fake, that is complete nonsense, so now, if you don't mind, please point out exactly which bits you believe are fake and why?

There are no references to verified facts in the note. This is just a private opinion. If one person came up with something, it does not mean that everyone thinks so.

The fact that there was no order of mobilization or sending dissidents to the frontlines is verifiable, for example (people were expecting this to hit on March 4th).
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