Looks fake. I can't imagine an FSB official caring about world hunger, especially as the prime concern.
Even if the FSB are universally psychopaths (which they aren’t), global famine is a destabilizing force that can be leveraged.
Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#52It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).
As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…
Your points could just as well reaffirm the theory that this is coordinated disinfo, could they not?
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#53Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake. The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituat…
1. The original text in Russian is much more chaotic - translator imposed his own structure on it and tweaked clumsy phrasing all over the place.
2. They say that the latest Putin's video is green screened
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#54It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).
As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…
> This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB
I've only seen this being vouched by one guy on Twitter (Christo Grozev), or maybe I'm missing something? It seems very authentic, just very weird that an FSB guy would publicly post something like this.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#55Given the recent track record for lies coming out of both Ukraine and Russia, it's probably best to treat everything as propaganda unless proven otherwise in some meaningful way.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#56'Meteorites' is a mis-translation for artillery or missiles I assume.
No, literally "meteorite" in original text. It is used as an example of a completely implausible event.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#57'Meteorites' is a mis-translation for artillery or missiles I assume.
I see the word "метеорита" in the original source, which is indeed meteorite (+ declension). I do not think it could be mistranslated as artillery or missile, although I am not a native Russian speaker (I had to learn Russian at school for 3 or 4 years and I have forgotten most of it, it was a long time ago). I think the writer was going for a metaphor, a made up example of being tasked with preparing for something considered so improbable that the preparation was de-prioritized.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#58It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).
As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…
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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#59A "whistleblower" should reveal some secret facts. Here we have a collectiol of opinions, even if by an FSB worker.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Wheat prices are through the roof right now [1], it's only going to get worse. So short-term impact pretty much guaranteed. Longer term, much of the euro zone agriculture is very dependent on fertilizers that are either produced using Russian natural gas or directly bought from there. Cost of growing food, if the situation d…
> Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. I dont think the US and Europe really care about that, they will send some token supplies but its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving.
The only way to guarantee sustained Ukrainian grain production is for the Russians to withdraw or for Ukrainians to surrender. I don't think the Ukrainians are obliged to surrender to stop people in other countries from starving. This is on Russia.