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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#101

Post by bob1029 »

caditinpiscinam wrote: post #70

How is it that Tesla (and other companies developing self-driving capabilities) are allowed to deploy their products in the real world? We make people take a test to get a drivers license -- why don't we have requirements for self-driving systems? We require that cars pass routine mechanical inspections -- why isn't the software controlling these cars regulated?

This is the point that bothers me the most. Everyone is so fixated on the things they can see and talk about (i.e. regulate). The complex mountain of software running on these cars is the entire bucket of liability.

How do you mandate software quality? I don't think testing alone is enough if you seriously care about safety. Any test can be gamed as tesla has aptly demonstrated so far.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#102

Post by cgriswald »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #72
sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is one thing to note that humans regularly break the law. It is another thing to task people with programing a robot to break that law. I'm very sure that many people break the speed limit regularly. But I would never expect to get away with programing a car to break that limit. No sane person would ever tell an employee or customer that rolling stops are OK, not in writing. And 5.6mph isn't rolling. That's beyond…

I fully support the noble notions and idealistic ideas. But let's make it real, and let's ask a question about the real world: Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? If so, those cars will inherently be a danger to life and limb. I don't care about any self-righteous driver who indicates houghtily " I drive speed limit on…

> Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways?

In the vast majority of states this would also be illegal. If Tesla decides it safe, they should be able to just rewrite the rules, though, right?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#103

Post by dahfizz »

shihab wrote: post #54
dahfizz wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies saying "trust us, we have the data to prove it" while keeping that data secret should be ignored. While true, I do not think this is a great heuristic. How would the average person know whether the "data" is available? Most people don't even know what "data" really is. They have never heard of CSVs or SQL. We need a better signal for consumers to know what they can and can't trust.

An average person doesn't need to directly access the data. As long as journalists or researchers can, an avg person could rely on their analysis/opinion instead.

I would certainly not rely on journalists' to actually have a look at the data, let alone to have the technical skills to analyze and report on it. As it is, reporters don't bother mentioning / linking to the data, or mentioning the lack of publicly available data.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#104

Post by nja »

JoshTko wrote: post #77
nja wrote: post #44

I was just watching this video of a Tesla trying and miserably failing to drive itself through the streets of Boston: https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1488555256162172928 A number of these near-crashes seem to be pretty odd errors (a couple of times it just decided to drive on the wrong side of the street?) -- albeit ones that one _could_ see drivers unfamiliar with the area making. If a human driver started dri…

To be fair Boston city roads are like horse carriage routes that were converted to streets and will probably one of the last places FSD optimizes for.

Interestingly, the routes in that video are in one of the few parts of Boston with a street grid (Southie: https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1488555262655045637 ) -- so I wonder how much _worse_ it is on the cowpath roads elsewhere...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#105

Post by hangonhn »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #49
sandworm101 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

I mean... I am "Tesla Hater" in that I don't like the direction they're proceeding in; but every human being I ever met in real actual life does rolling stops under some conditions. Last time I can confidently state that "I never rolled through a stop at very slow speed" is when I was 17, and only NOW do I realize how much of an annoying bum I was :P. So if a car does a rolling stop through a stop sign when there are…

I wonder if that might be a function of how roads near you are designed. I live in the Bay Area and there are definitely certain roads and intersections where I don't feel safe not coming to a full stop and looking both ways. It might be because of hills or that the other direction has no stop sign, etc. Maybe where you live roads have better visibility but at least in my experience in my part of the Bay Area, I often find myself needing to be very careful at some stop signs and has consequently been doing complete stops.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#106

Post by toomuchtodo »

LeoPanthera wrote: post #89
irthomasthomas wrote: post #62

How is this still front page? Somebody sleeping? In case you missed them, there have been 5 tesla stories nuked from the front page today: 'Self driving' Tesla fails miserably on the streets of South Boston 30 points 22 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30173566 Tesla Australia admits its sales figures were wrong 39 points 14 comments https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30176635 Tesla drivers report a su…

There are valid criticisms of Tesla, this normalized data story is probably one of them, but the fans and anti-fans of Tesla are so equally rabid that it is nearly impossible to have a rational conversation about it. Expressing a view in either direction results in an instant pile-on of trolls and flames.

There are valid criticisms, and there is being...overly enthusiastic.

https://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=camjohnson26

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#107

Post by heavyset_go »

obmelvin wrote: post #84
djanogo wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can't be just any "average driver", they should be compared against "average driver" who just bought $40-50K NEW car.

If you are speaking about the safety features in a new car, then I won't disagree. However, if you are implying that those with a nice new car are somehow better drivers, more attentive drivers, or care more about their car then I would highly disagree. As someone who purchased a new car last year, and does greatly care about it, I'm routinely shocked by people and their clear disregard for their own vehicle. Reckles…

Look at the accident and fatality rates for drivers of luxury cars. They are much, much lower than the same rates for less expensive cars. In fact, if you break it down by vehicle model, there are several models with 0 fatalities at all.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#108

Post by rhino369 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #20
jacquesm wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. That's because it's marketing, not science.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

The Silicon Valley Stop is the new Hollywood Stop, huh.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#109

Post by spywaregorilla »

endisneigh wrote: post #10

Are there stats that even show that any self driving system is safer than the median driver? Basically accidents involve two people. Said accidents have responsibility divided between both individuals. A hypothetically perfect driver could still be involved in fatal accidents by virtue of the other driver. The worse drivers obviously will cause these accidents. The questions are three fold: 1. Are self driving vehicl…

The median driver is a difficult thing to study. 77% of people have experienced an accident, but I think fewer than 50% of people have been at fault for one. That's not to say they wouldn't be at fault if they drove more, but the median has a clean record. Hard to know who to exclude.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#110

Post by [deleted] »

aspenmayer wrote: post #88
NikolaNovak wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fully support the noble notions and idealistic ideas. But let's make it real, and let's ask a question about the real world: Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? If so, those cars will inherently be a danger to life and limb. I don't care about any self-righteous driver who indicates houghtily " I drive speed limit on…

> Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? It’s already against road rules to stay in the passing lane when cars behind wish to pass, regardless of the speed limit, or if you’re already driving at it. If cars behind desire to overtake, give way. This is already codified. No need to blame the cars or the self-driving tech. I…

[deleted]
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