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Do climate models predict extreme weather?

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Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#101

Post by Retric »

sanxiyn wrote: post #73
labster wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a climatologist by education and a dabbler in politics, I think you are radically misjudging the ability of most people to have rational discussions about unwelcome statistics. If you say severe weather will increase by 20% due to climate change, people will hear that there’s an 80% chance weather will stay the same. And they say I’m just being alarmist. When I say that this storm may have been enhanced by climate…

I think you are the problem. Don't lie. Ever.

Lies of omission are unavoidable when talking to a general audience about any deep scientific or technical issue.

A physicist actually explaining Magnetism takes years. If a PHD gives you a short answer their simply lying to you. For example, no ferromagnetic materials aren’t simply all atoms arranged in a specific fashion that’s a monumental simplification.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#102

Post by chasd00 »

nabla9 wrote: post #14
pmjones wrote: post #10

Models say only what the modeler tells them to say.

That's not true. Climate models model and simulate physical and chemical condition on Earth. Modellers don't know what they say beforehand. Offhandedly portraying scientists and researchers as dishonest and conspirators in every opportunity possible seems the default here.

Upthread there’s a climatologist openly admitting to lying to make their point seem more dire. The whole field has a credibility problem. I don’t blame laypeople for their skepticism.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#103

Post by godelski »

sanxiyn wrote: post #70
godelski wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is verifiably false. We can look at the predictions (inference) from older models and check how accurate they were at predicting the future. No back testing required. Those models have been very accurate. Current models have only improved and reduced error. We can test the accuracy, you have to be honest about it. https://www.science.org/content/article/even-50-year-old-cli...

Your point that we can check prediction against reality is well taken, but honestly I think we got lucky. Knowing what we know, 50-year-old model shouldn't have been accurate. It didn't model aerosol, which we now know to be important. It's just that errors happened to cancel out.

I think you're looking to have an answer and seeking to justify that answer. There's not just one model. There's dozens of competing ones. So we have to draw one of two concussions.

If climate is only model able by chance, we got lucky a lot of times. Someone should be buying a lot of lottery tickets because the science community is way luckier than the expected value. That dozens of independent research teams were about to exactly cancel out errors in precisely the right way (but different from one another) to have good predictive power. Certainty too lucky for a purely random process. So what's the bound? Clearly this process is repeatable.

The models are accurate and science can deal with probabilities. Or rather that scientists (experts) know what they're doing.

The odds on the first conclusion are too high. The second is easier to justify. I think it's easier to justify that you're not as informed on the subject and that there's nuance you're missing that the experts know (I'm confident they know more than me).

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#104

Post by Breazy »

Retric wrote: post #101
sanxiyn wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are the problem. Don't lie. Ever.

Lies of omission are unavoidable when talking to a general audience about any deep scientific or technical issue. A physicist actually explaining Magnetism takes years. If a PHD gives you a short answer their simply lying to you. For example, no ferromagnetic materials aren’t simply all atoms arranged in a specific fashion that’s a monumental simplification.

An omission really only becomes a lie of omission if somebody would feel deceived upon learning of the omission. Nobody would reasonably feel deceived by your omission of the 0.000000001% cosmic ray hypothesis.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#105

Post by leetcrew »

d--b wrote: post #91

The point is that warning about extreme weather events is the only narrative that got people to consider global warming a problem at all. A 2 degree change in average temperature doesn’t change how people live. A heat wave does. Now I don’t know if it’s actually true or not but it feels like the frequency of extreme weather event has increased. It’s difficult to say because that’s something our grandparents already s…

> I personally have been criticized by friends for saying that we don’t know what the impact of climate change is on the weather. I don’t care anymore. It’s all about narrative. That one works, let’s not poke holes in it. It only benefits people running polluting industries.

I get it. it's exhausting and usually pointless to make these sorts of arguments. I think it's fine to give up after a while, at least with certain people. every single issue can't be our hill to die on.

but this goes further than acceptance; we shouldn't go so far as to embrace obviously wrong narratives, however effective they may be in the moment. it really damages the trust we have in each other, which is already in short supply.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#106

Post by yongjik »

FWIW, I think it's quickly becoming an academic question. Last year had an extreme heat wave in Canada (worst in record) and a cold wave in Texas. Sure, last year might have been a freak year, but the thing with unmitigated climate change is that a "freak year" quickly becomes a "normal year" which then becomes a thing of the past.

For example, see the graph in [1], and imagine we only have data up to 1999. The year 1998 sticks out like a sore thumb - it was a freak hot year. Except that it became the new normal temperature in the 2000s, and then the most recent six or seven years have handily beat it. It will be an unusually cool year if it happened now.

We are transitioning into a world where "worst since weather records began" is a regular phrase at evening news. When a town burns down, will its residents even care if the particular fire was linked to climate change or not?

[1] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#107

Post by throttlebody »

labster wrote: post #61
contravariant wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why in these discussions it's usually better to talk about specific statistics like 'the chance of a wildfire has gone up by 20%', or perhaps more clearly 'the average time between extreme floods has gone down from once every 100 years to once every 60' (which I find communicates the point a bit more clearly). That said personally I think that should be as far as the discussion goes, talking about a specific e…

As a climatologist by education and a dabbler in politics, I think you are radically misjudging the ability of most people to have rational discussions about unwelcome statistics. If you say severe weather will increase by 20% due to climate change, people will hear that there’s an 80% chance weather will stay the same. And they say I’m just being alarmist. When I say that this storm may have been enhanced by climate…

On BBC.com there was an article which quoted 5 scientists about climate change and one said that 40 years ago we had an extreme weather event every 3 months, in 2021 it was every 19 days and that we will run out of the capacity to pay for it. I can't find the article atm, but its a pretty good way to visualize it.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#108

Post by leetcrew »

Breazy wrote: post #97
enkid wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give a specific example of what you are talking about? What noble lies were being told about COVID? I heard a lot of "we don't knows, but here is the best bet" which were not lies, but all of the lies I heard absolutely were not noble in that they were not for the public's best interest, but rather for the best interest of the individual saying them.

"Stop wearing masks, they don't work."

No post body was provided.

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#109

Post by taxyz23 »

labster wrote: post #61
contravariant wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why in these discussions it's usually better to talk about specific statistics like 'the chance of a wildfire has gone up by 20%', or perhaps more clearly 'the average time between extreme floods has gone down from once every 100 years to once every 60' (which I find communicates the point a bit more clearly). That said personally I think that should be as far as the discussion goes, talking about a specific e…

As a climatologist by education and a dabbler in politics, I think you are radically misjudging the ability of most people to have rational discussions about unwelcome statistics. If you say severe weather will increase by 20% due to climate change, people will hear that there’s an 80% chance weather will stay the same. And they say I’m just being alarmist. When I say that this storm may have been enhanced by climate…

A propagandist by his own resume. Doesn't do the cause much good. http://www.brentlaabs.com/about

Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?

#110

Post by slibhb »

d--b wrote: post #91

The point is that warning about extreme weather events is the only narrative that got people to consider global warming a problem at all. A 2 degree change in average temperature doesn’t change how people live. A heat wave does. Now I don’t know if it’s actually true or not but it feels like the frequency of extreme weather event has increased. It’s difficult to say because that’s something our grandparents already s…

Narrative might win you an election or two but climate change is a long term issue with long term consequences. In the long term, telling the truth is the correct strategy.
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