Do climate models predict extreme weather?
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Do climate models predict extreme weather?
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Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#2Basically she's saying the current models would be poor tools to use for deciding what to do about climate change and moreover the media is too simplistic and confident when they make extreme weather attribution. But that is nothing new --hence Gell-Mann amnesia effect.
>"And that is what I think is the biggest problem. The way that extreme event attributions are presented in the media conveys a false sense of accuracy. The probabilities that they quote could be orders of magnitude too small. The current climate models just aren’t good enough to give accurate estimates."
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#3Another great video and article from Sabine. So it seems like yes they do, and they can give us useful indicative estimates like lower bounds for the increased likelihood of extreme events, but there are still huge unknowns.
Honestly I’m amazed we can get the estimates we do, given that this particular field of analysis is so young. I’m not as pessimistic about the usefulness of this data though. Knowing that these events are becoming much more likely and having an understanding of why is useful work. There are always unknowns, and now there are fewer of them. That’s good.
Take the estimate that bush fires in Australia are now at least twice as likely than they were. Sure it would be better to know if they are twice, three times or 10x as likely, but knowing they are at least twice as likely and why that is the case is still useful data.
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#4I don't really understand the conflict that seems to exist between the title of the article ("Do Climate Models predict Extreme Weather? ") and the body of the article, which argues that event attribution can't be done with much accuracy.
So ... "Do Climate Models predict Extreme Weather? ": yes, yes they do.
But .... "how much impact does climate change have on extreme weather?": hard to say with much accuracy, but the factor isn't negative!
How useful is it to note that the factor might 2 or 200 or 2 million?
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#5One of the things about "extreme weather attribution" that makes me uncomfortable is the asymmetry of it. To be clear: I'm in no way an expert (or even educated) in the area.
To give an example. Let's say there's a 1% chance every year that there will be a catastrophic wildfire in some particular area. Now let's say climate change increases a chance of drought in that area. Then we get a wildfire one year and the attribution is (say) "20% due to climate change" -- which I guess means there is now a 1.2% annual chance of a catastrophic fire.
But what if climate change causes more rain in the area? And, for the sake of argument, that causes the change of catastrophic fire to go down to say 0.8%. Then, in a given year, there is no fire. No one is going to bother doing an attribution study to say, "Climate change is 20% responsible for the fact that we didn't have a fire this year."
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#6tldr; No
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#7I believe in climate change, but if you look into how the climate change computer models are written, it really makes me feel like it is contrived. Here's the problem with climate change modeling, you are modeling a complex chaotic system, you just cannot do it accurately. You have to be honest about it.
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#8One of the things about "extreme weather attribution" that makes me uncomfortable is the asymmetry of it. To be clear: I'm in no way an expert (or even educated) in the area. To give an example. Let's say there's a 1% chance every year that there will be a catastrophic wildfire in some particular area. Now let's say climate change increases a chance of drought in that area. Then we get a wildfire one year and the att…
Extreme weather can occur in both directions. A year with more rain may be less prone to fire but more prone to flooding. It also does not take natural disaster to notice extremes. People who have lived in the same area awhile will know if there is an unusually wet, dry, hot, or cold year.
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#9Basically she's saying the current models would be poor tools to use for deciding what to do about climate change and moreover the media is too simplistic and confident when they make extreme weather attribution. But that is nothing new --hence Gell-Mann amnesia effect. >"And that is what I think is the biggest problem. The way that extreme event attributions are presented in the media conveys a false sense of accura…
I think Sabine's point is more limited than "current models would be poor tools to use for deciding what to do about climate change", and more like "current models would be poor tools for extreme weather attribution".
Of course, if your threshold for action on climate change is strong extreme weather attribution, then ok. But I think it's reasonable to also have lower or different thresholds for planning nad action.
I do feel queasy about the current phrasing of extreme weather attribution, especially as portrayed in the media.
Re: Do climate models predict extreme weather?
#10Models say only what the modeler tells them to say.