WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases • Hacker News Board

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#101

Post by jcranberry » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:22 PM UTC

tootie wrote: post #61

causi wrote: post #26

I'm not skilled enough in the biomedical background to evaluate the various genetics-based articles written for or against natural-origin and lab-origin hypotheses. As a layman, however, I find the degree to which the Chinese government has stomped all over foreign-led investigations into the origin of SARS-Cov-2 to be highly, highly suspicious.

The best writeup I've seen is actually this twitter thread from the WNYC science reporter, Nsikan Akpan (himself a phd in biology). The gist being that while lab leak is still possible, it's very unlikely and it's also likely we'll never find a smoking gun for any hypothesis. https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724

The New Yorker had an article in the discussion and interviewed two scientists, Stanford microbiologist David Relman and UNC virologist Ralph Baric, who signed the letter to WHO which was published in Science magazine.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-sudden-...

The two scientists seemed to think that although a lab leak origin is possible the natural origin story is more likely.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#102

Post by 908B64B197 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:23 PM UTC

vimy wrote: post #94

908B64B197 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> by refugees Was it confirmed these men were legitimate refugees? > I only later realized that German media and those subreddits' mods had all worked to suppress news of the attacks until they could no longer be ignored. Why would they do that?

Yes, it was confirmed. It’s to protect the narrative that immigration is good for Europe. Just like every time there is a religious terror knife attack they claim it’s someone with mental problems.

I meant economic migrants and not true refugees, as defined by international laws. Like this

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/africa/fake-refugees-kenya-in...

https://abcnews.go.com/International/fake-syrian-passports-w...

https://news.yahoo.com/migrants-using-fake-syrian-passports-...

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#103

Post by iammisc » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:24 PM UTC

8note wrote: post #22

nextos wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found it sad to see how a very plausible theory (other countries have had leaks in the past) was silenced and censored. As a starter, we need a deep and careful investigation to make sure this doesn't happen ever again either in China or elsewhere.

It got tied to another theory, that the virus was engineered.

Who claimed that?

Even the most prominent proponent of the lab leak theory, Donald Trump, said several times early on that he wasn't sure if it was intentional or an accident. In fact, he was pretty clear he thought it was accidental, and only mentioned it being intentional as a possibility, but that was an afterthought.

Source, since everyone likes to put words in his mouth:

https://apnews.com/article/understanding-the-outbreak-intell... (dated April 30, 2020).

So who exactly said that it was engineered for certain?

EDIT: the downvotes indicate that the belief that some believe the virus to be engineered is dogmatic in nature, rather than based on facts. If this were such a common belief, surely someone can identify its main proponent.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#104

Post by shakezula » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:28 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #63

causi wrote: post #26

I'm not skilled enough in the biomedical background to evaluate the various genetics-based articles written for or against natural-origin and lab-origin hypotheses. As a layman, however, I find the degree to which the Chinese government has stomped all over foreign-led investigations into the origin of SARS-Cov-2 to be highly, highly suspicious.

To be honest the only way we will ever know is if the chinese would share the genomes of the viruses they stored in their lab, but who would trust them to do that? The express drive-by the WHO did in china served absolutely no purpose. I am ready to bet that all samples have been destroyed and the staff briefed (warned). I would even suspect the samples have not even been analysed by the Chinese themselves as it is b…

The Chinese didn't do anything that we wouldn't have done. In fact, they took better steps than we did, as far as the pandemic is concerned.

Of course the dude had concerns, anyone with half a brain would explore all of the possible origins and theories. But the lab leak theory is just that - one theory that could explain the situation at hand.

The problem is that too many people have put far too much stock in the lab leak theory to the point that it's being treated as the most likely source of origin, but that's just not what the evidence says.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#105

Post by iammisc » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:28 PM UTC

uses wrote: post #73

908B64B197 wrote: post #12

Remember when the previous administration suggested looking into the Lab Leak theory and was laughed at? Remember how you would get banned from Facebook for suggesting that the lab leak theory was a possibility? Then major social networks and the medias reversed their positions. What changed in the meantime, other than the president?

> Remember when the previous administration suggested looking into the Lab Leak theory and was laughed at? The previous administration was completely nuts and would do and say all kinds of random things. The problems with communication and trust were too many to know where to start. Besides that, the context was totally different. A president trying to "wage a trade war" on China, stir up nationalist sentiment, distr…

The previous administration was broadly right on many important topics regarding the pandemic, that the media was wrong on.

1. Vaccines would be available by the election (they were off by two days, likely because of optics of releasing a vaccine right before). 2. The lab leak theory being worthy of investigation 3. School lockdowns are damaging (now broad agreement) 4. New York did not need 40k ventilators and Andrew Cuomo covered up nursing home deaths (later an aide admitted to it) 5. Shutting down travel was wrong before it was right. If you recall, after trump's state of the union, in which he mentioned covid, Nancy Pelosi went into the streets of china town and insisted people ignore his fear mongering.

Shall I go on?

> A president trying to "wage a trade war" on China

A trade war which he campaigned on, was voted into office for, and for which he has the legal authority. You are complaining that trump doesn't agree with you, not that he did something legally wrong.

> we learned more, we're still learning more

Yes, they learned that they were wrong on many things and trump was right.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#106

Post by cm2187 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:30 PM UTC

shakezula wrote: post #104

cm2187 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest the only way we will ever know is if the chinese would share the genomes of the viruses they stored in their lab, but who would trust them to do that? The express drive-by the WHO did in china served absolutely no purpose. I am ready to bet that all samples have been destroyed and the staff briefed (warned). I would even suspect the samples have not even been analysed by the Chinese themselves as it is b…

The Chinese didn't do anything that we wouldn't have done. In fact, they took better steps than we did, as far as the pandemic is concerned. Of course the dude had concerns, anyone with half a brain would explore all of the possible origins and theories. But the lab leak theory is just that - one theory that could explain the situation at hand. The problem is that too many people have put far too much stock in the la…

I'd like to think we don't put doctors in jail when they raise the alarm on a new virus.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#107

Post by mike00632 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:30 PM UTC

siva7 wrote: post #71

tootie wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best writeup I've seen is actually this twitter thread from the WNYC science reporter, Nsikan Akpan (himself a phd in biology). The gist being that while lab leak is still possible, it's very unlikely and it's also likely we'll never find a smoking gun for any hypothesis. https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724

Again, this writeup is more about the bioengineering hypothesis while embarak states another theory. in it‘s current state the term lab leak has almost become meaningless

That's the problem with these conspiracy theories, though, right? They are unfalsifiable by design. A scientific hypothesis would be testable. For example, "Did the COVID-19 virus come from a lab?" would be falsifiable if the COVID-19 virus didn't share the base genetic sequence of typical viruses tested in a lab. Lo and behold, the COVID-19 virus doesn't have the genetic signature of viruses in labs. Therefore the conspiracy theory is more convoluted to include vastly more participants in a complex web of motives resulting in a theory that is less falsifiable and plays into every possible prejudice a laymen could have about geopolitics, money, race and national governments.

We've seen lab leaks and this is supposedly different because it's not disclosed and numerous other reasons making it hard to prove. We know about lab made viruses which this is supposedly different because it somehow looks like a virus of zoonotic origin. We've seen the Chinese government cover up embarrassing situations but this is different because there was heavy involvement from American researchers and American public educational institutions and they are in on the cover up too for some reason. We've seen the US government dislose previously classified information but this is different because all of the government officials who say they saw classified information about a lab leak (and were in a position to declassify said information) did not accompany their accusations with gathered intelligence. At some point we should recognize that these necessary mental gymnastics put the theory well into crank territory.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#108

Post by JPKab » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:30 PM UTC

jcranberry wrote: post #101

tootie wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best writeup I've seen is actually this twitter thread from the WNYC science reporter, Nsikan Akpan (himself a phd in biology). The gist being that while lab leak is still possible, it's very unlikely and it's also likely we'll never find a smoking gun for any hypothesis. https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724

The New Yorker had an article in the discussion and interviewed two scientists, Stanford microbiologist David Relman and UNC virologist Ralph Baric, who signed the letter to WHO which was published in Science magazine. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-sudden-... The two scientists seemed to think that although a lab leak origin is possible the natural origin story is more likely.

Again, there is no identifiable difference between a virus harvested from guano in a cave that later leaks from a lab sample and the same virus if transmitted to a human.

Nobody is saying this virus was engineered in this thread.

It appears to me to be a deliberate psychological trick of lumping people who claim the virus leaked from a lab (by far the most probable cause) with people who say the virus was an engineered bioweapon (insane, nonsensical crazy talk). The entire virology community is dependent on government funding, and they have massive conflicts of interest. I work with academics all day every day, and far too many gradually turn into mealy-mouthed bureaucrats, doing and saying whatever it takes to chase their next juicy grant, abusing and exploiting graduate students all along the way.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#109

Post by shakezula » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:31 PM UTC

rflrob wrote: post #76

causi wrote: post #26

I'm not skilled enough in the biomedical background to evaluate the various genetics-based articles written for or against natural-origin and lab-origin hypotheses. As a layman, however, I find the degree to which the Chinese government has stomped all over foreign-led investigations into the origin of SARS-Cov-2 to be highly, highly suspicious.

> I find the degree to which the Chinese government has stomped all over foreign-led investigations into the origin of SARS-Cov-2 to be highly, highly suspicious. I don't find it suspicious at all, precisely because I don't trust the Chinese government. In my estimation of the CPC, the following probabilities are all roughly equal (and close to 1): * P(suppress investigation | natural origin) * P(suppress investigati…

This is exactly what's so frustrating about the media treating the gain-of-function research they were doing as the "smoking gun" is so disingenuous. We were doing all of the same types of research, even cooperating with their government on some of it in our own labs IN CHINA, and then all of a sudden we turn around and blame them? Come on, people, you're playing right into what the propaganda says happened. They're not doing anything the U.S. government wouldn't do if the likely point of origin had been somewhere in Atlanta.

Re: WHO inquiry chief 'had concerns' about lab close to first Covid cases

#110

Post by stvswn » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 8:31 PM UTC

tootie wrote: post #61

causi wrote: post #26

I'm not skilled enough in the biomedical background to evaluate the various genetics-based articles written for or against natural-origin and lab-origin hypotheses. As a layman, however, I find the degree to which the Chinese government has stomped all over foreign-led investigations into the origin of SARS-Cov-2 to be highly, highly suspicious.

The best writeup I've seen is actually this twitter thread from the WNYC science reporter, Nsikan Akpan (himself a phd in biology). The gist being that while lab leak is still possible, it's very unlikely and it's also likely we'll never find a smoking gun for any hypothesis. https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724

The thread's entire premise is that lab leakers are only speculating while there is in fact direct evidence of natural origins.

What direct evidence of natural origins is he referring to? Kristian Andersen's argument in his oft-cited paper seems to be that the spike proteins are effective at infecting humans in a novel way, and that if he were engineering an infections coronavirus he would have designed it differently, therefore it's unlikely that it was bioengineered. Beyond that, they tend to point out that "there is no evidence" of a lab leak -- ignoring many pieces of evidence along the way, even if they are circumstantial, including the workers at the WIV contracting a dangerous disease w/ COVID-like symptoms in Fall 2019, the sudden disappearance of the WIV genome sequence database before the first publicly known cases, and the suspicious renaming of the RaTG13 virus sample (the closest known to COVID-19 genetically) in WIV literature. I feel perpetually gaslit but some of these scientists. The argument seems to go as follows: it is most reasonable to suspect a zoonotic transfer, even without direct evidence, because a community of scientists with clear conflicts of interest tell us so -- but we are supposed to dismiss the circumstantial evidence of a lab leak because the only satisfactory evidence would be if a smoking gun were found in the WIV records (and everyone knows that they won't be). The idea that it has natural origins stems from recent experience with SARS and MERS, but of course that doesn't mean much of anything at all -- those experience inform both theories. One should also consider the 1977 flu pandemic which was confirmed to have been related to a live vaccine trial done by the Chinese military -- information which was suppressed at the time by the WHO for fear of losing cooperation with China and Russia.

Origins aside, it is not disupted that the NIH through the NIAID and EcoHealth alliance were funding research into coronaviruses that was being done at the WIV, and that the data related to that research used to be readily available but now is suppressed by the Chinese government, exactly at the same time that we are experiencing a pandemic that the research was hoping to forestall. Isn't that alone troubling? Are the scientists in this community expressing any trouble with that fact, or are we meant to believe that we are conspiratorial nuts if we bring up China's behavior in any context?