Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes • Hacker News Board

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#101

Post by maccard » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:25 AM UTC

xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: post #29

Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

This does not, by the way, imply that the machines are working correctly and human drivers are the problem. These cars are rear-ended more often than human drivers, which suggests they stop more suddenly or at times humans don't expect. Slamming on the brakes is a flaw. Even if every car on the road had the ability to respond instantly to the car ahead, being forced to brake hard still risks loss of control especiall…

> This does not, by the way, imply that the machines are working correctly and human drivers are the problem. These cars are rear-ended more often than human drivers, which suggests they stop more suddenly or at times humans don't expect.

I had a look and couldn't find an answer; does their increased rear-ending frequency result in a decrease in head-on collisions? Is waymo getting rear ended to avoid being t-boned (or a head on collision with someone else)?

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#102

Post by glogla » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:39 AM UTC

freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

spike021 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

The safety record of human drivers is very different between different countries. There are places where drunk driving is the norm and there are places where it almost never happens, et cetera. So there is definitely something going on there.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#103

Post by johannes1234321 » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:41 AM UTC

upbeat_general wrote: post #36

rwcarlsen wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solving the automated driving problem will require these systems to behave in ways that regular human drivers consider acceptable - at least for a transition period of time where both live on the road together. Sudden hard breaking in situations that humans see absolutely no need for it is an unacceptable behavior for human drivers to have. Just because it's not your fault doesn't mean you can't do things to prevent…

I’m speculating here but it’s possible that the waymo vehicle being rear ended is an optimal outcome here. If the waymo vehicle would have otherwise collided with a car in the intersection it would probably be a much worse crash than a rear end with a low/moderate relative velocity.

It could be that the Way no car stops earlier or stronger than a human driver.

For instance the driver behind them might see "ah cross traffic coming, but the guy before me tries to go through anyways" and suddenly the Way no stops.

It is true that laws typically state (i don't know the applicable californian law, but assume) that the driver in the back has to drive in a way that they could always safely stop, but that's not how most people drive, while one drives with expectations on the car ahead.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#104

Post by pas » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:53 AM UTC

derekp7 wrote: post #26

spike021 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

Unfortunately, current cars have to be controlled by humans, and the human brain has certain characteristics (selected for by evolution) that makes it near impossible for it to be able to react to 100% of the driving situations. There are built-in efficiency circuits (similar to CPU branch prediction) that takes immediate action based on what it typically sees. So if 99.9999% of the time, when a car in front starts t…

... but isn't rush hour traffic basically that? Car in front of you starts to move forward then sometimes suddenly stops. People usually have experience with this, though it's a whole other category compared to entering a seemingly empty intersection as the second car and the first car slams the brakes because it turns out the intersection wasn't empty.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#105

Post by pas » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:57 AM UTC

T-hawk wrote: post #50

spike021 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

That last point isn't a "you could argue" or "most cases", it's literally the law. Rear-ending is always the rear car's fault and it's always their responsibility to leave enough space and time to react and stop safely. If the lead car braked when there was no reason or danger, that driver might also be cited for recklessness or some such, but a rear-end collision is always an error by the rear driver.

No, it's more complicated than that. If someone cuts in front of you and you end up rear-ending them, it's not your fault. See all the fucking break-check idiots. (And the videos when someone does it to a car, which then turns out to be a cop.)

That said, yes, in theory you have to be alert, as the car in front of you can at any moment do something unexpected. (Eg. the driver falls asleep and crashes into the barrier.)

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#106

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 11:16 AM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

[deleted]

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#107

Post by imtringued » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 11:25 AM UTC

bumbada wrote: post #76

They can use it to start fixing the roads, not the cars. Just look at the cross intersection they use as an example, typical of the US. The ROAD is the death trap there. People are crossing each other at high speed, this is the BUG, and should be fixed. The proper solution is putting there a roundabout, and you will have instantly less fatal accidents. The US was the first to use roundabouts, but those early designs…

I wonder who the insane engineer is that thought a 8 lane cross intersection is a good idea.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#108

Post by igorkraw » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 11:27 AM UTC

Laarlf wrote: post #94

bumbada wrote: post #76

They can use it to start fixing the roads, not the cars. Just look at the cross intersection they use as an example, typical of the US. The ROAD is the death trap there. People are crossing each other at high speed, this is the BUG, and should be fixed. The proper solution is putting there a roundabout, and you will have instantly less fatal accidents. The US was the first to use roundabouts, but those early designs…

I live in Germany. We have some roundabouts. And let me tell you: they rarely work better than red lights. Traffic flow requires more than roundabouts. They require proper planning, green waves, proper sizing and still different lanes for roundabouts. Don’t forget about semis either. Just throwing roundabouts somewhere won’t solve anything. I’ve seen that often enough. That will just create more traffic jams.

The literature says differently, and is also aware of your opinion.

https://www.safetylit.org/citations/index.php?fuseaction=cit...

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#109

Post by throwaway0a5e » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 11:30 AM UTC

pas wrote: post #104

derekp7 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, current cars have to be controlled by humans, and the human brain has certain characteristics (selected for by evolution) that makes it near impossible for it to be able to react to 100% of the driving situations. There are built-in efficiency circuits (similar to CPU branch prediction) that takes immediate action based on what it typically sees. So if 99.9999% of the time, when a car in front starts t…

... but isn't rush hour traffic basically that? Car in front of you starts to move forward then sometimes suddenly stops. People usually have experience with this, though it's a whole other category compared to entering a seemingly empty intersection as the second car and the first car slams the brakes because it turns out the intersection wasn't empty.

> but isn't rush hour traffic basically that? Car in front of you starts to move forward then sometimes suddenly stops

It may be sudden but it's also predictable. The participants know that the car in front of them will stop, possibly quickly and are prepared.

A car (human or AI piloted) stepping on the brakes in the middle of a green light because a pedestrian anticipating the car's departure from the intersection began to step off the curb is far less predictable and arguably violated established traffic behavioral norms.

Predictable traffic is safe traffic.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#110

Post by shalmanese » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 11:32 AM UTC

CobrastanJorji wrote: post #65

spike021 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

Please tell me more about this "proper education of being observant." Do you believe such a thing exists? Does it reliably make people consistently observant? Would it work on me? I would pay a lot of money for such a thing.

Yes, there are defensive driving courses offered at most racing schools and they're generally a prerequisite for taking more advanced racing courses but are also pitched as a terminal course for people who simply want to improve their daily driving skills. They'll take you through some of the basic theory of safer driving and then take you out onto the track to practice some basic defensive maneuvers.

People who take the course generally say that it has real, long term effects on their driving as it provides them a mental framework for how to evaluate traffic from a fundamentally defensive perspective and they find themselves practicing the same skills decades after they've taken the courses.

I'm not aware of any long term, longitudinal studies on whether defensive driving courses decrease raw accident rates but any study would be tricky to do since people who self select for defensive driving courses are likely to have any number of confounds that would make observational studies less than clear.