Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How • Hacker News Board

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#101

Post by DanBC » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 8:01 PM UTC

jk700 wrote: post #55

DanBC wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Show me the science. We have lots of RCTs on mask wearing (mostly in healthcare professionals) and they struggle to find a benefit. People should wear masks, masks may help, but it's unhelpful when people misrepresent the strength of the evidence.

> We have lots of RCTs on mask wearing (mostly in healthcare professionals) and they struggle to find a benefit. This is false. If you look around and read actual studies, not demand other people to do it for you and not cherry pick garbage studies, you'll find even real life "experiments" of healthcare workers in the US during COVID-19 not wearing masks with rapidly rising number of COVID-19 cases then mandated to w…

I've read the actual studies. They don't show benefits.

> not demand other people to do it for you and not cherry pick garbage studies,

The reason I ask you to provide the studies you think are persuasive is so we avoid the tedious discussion about cherry picking. I cannot cherry pick articles that you supply.

If you want my link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Lancet is a reputable high impact publication. The paper is peer reviewed.

> Transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of 1 m or more, compared with a distance of less than 1 m (n=10 736, pooled adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·18, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·38; risk difference [RD] −10·2%, 95% CI −11·5 to −7·5; moderate certainty); protection was increased as distance was lengthened (change in relative risk [RR] 2·02 per m; pinteraction=0·041; moderate certainty). Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection (n=2647; aOR 0·15, 95% CI 0·07 to 0·34, RD −14·3%, −15·9 to −10·7; low certainty), with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks; pinteraction=0·090; posterior probability >95%, low certainty).

For masking they find only "low certainty" evidence, and that's with N95s or 12 to 16 layers of cotton. (Most people are wearing 3 to 4 layers).

Low certainty comes from GRADE and means "The true effect might be markedly different from the estimated effect" -- masks may be markedly more, or markedly less, effective than they found.

> What you won't find though is studies supporting the assertion that sick person wearing a mask protects others, not the wearer. Those are the studies that show little to no benefit and always did actually. You protect others with a mask by not catching the virus yourself, it's a second order effect.

Oh-ho, so here we see a clearly shifted goalpost. Everyone else in this thread is saying that the science is obvious and that you wear a mask to prevent your infection from spreading to other people. So, does the science support "source control" or not?

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#102

Post by DanBC » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 8:05 PM UTC

Accacin wrote: post #51

DanBC wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Show me the science. We have lots of RCTs on mask wearing (mostly in healthcare professionals) and they struggle to find a benefit. People should wear masks, masks may help, but it's unhelpful when people misrepresent the strength of the evidence.

There's a few links in this thread, maybe you should read them. > but it's unhelpful when people misrepresent the strength of the evidence What exactly are your credentials, and why should I trust you?

I'm not asking you to trust my credentials, which is why I'm asking for links to the science.

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#103

Post by DanBC » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 8:06 PM UTC

freen wrote: post #42

mrob wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Anything that in any way reduces the flow of virus particles by definition reduces the spreading of the virus. It does not. It's possible for a filter to break some droplets into smaller droplets that linger in the air for longer. Evidence suggests that masks are still a net benefit, but this is by scientific study, not "by definition".

I haven’t seen any research that indicates this. Would you mind sharing your source? Thanks!

Here's one that shows masks lose effectiveness over time: https://www.ijic.info/article/view/10788

They're using I think single layer of cotton, and 2ply or 3ply disposable paper masks. These are very low quality masks, and if masks work people probably shouldn't be wearing these.

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#104

Post by gnusty_gnurc » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 8:13 PM UTC

klyrs wrote: post #80

dx87 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Surgeon General said back in March that wearing masks increases the chance of spreading covid because people aren't trained on how to use them correctly and it gives them a false sense of security. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/health/surgeon-general-corona...

Yes, that was a concern back in March. Back in March, when we had very little understanding of transmission and when hospitals were facing dire mask shortages. What has the surgeon general said since then? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-surgeon-general-jer... Are people on HN actually too stupid to learn how to properly wear a mask in 8 months time? I don't believe that. I think that each of us is smart eno…

You can characterize what you’re saying to simply: “just comply, citizen”

That attitude is precisely what’s wrong with this situation. An elite who’s prescribing technocrat-informed decisions instead of offering balanced and neutral scientific conclusions. Meanwhile you can point to a long line of completely wrong technocratic advice during the pandemic.

Always make sure you’re able to say “I might be completely wrong.”

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#105

Post by kyriakos » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 8:25 PM UTC

davak wrote: post #59

I'm a critical care doc and directly involved with COVID administrative policies for my health system organization. I have recently told friends and family to start buying and wearing medical masks. Our experience is that medical masks are very protective in protecting the wearer from catching the disease. Hospitals have plenty of masks now. A cloth mask prevents spread away from the wearer, but a medical mask protec…

What exactly is a medical mask? Is it the same thing as the cheap blue surgical masks?

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#106

Post by gjm11 » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 8:56 PM UTC

DanBC wrote: post #101

jk700 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We have lots of RCTs on mask wearing (mostly in healthcare professionals) and they struggle to find a benefit. This is false. If you look around and read actual studies, not demand other people to do it for you and not cherry pick garbage studies, you'll find even real life "experiments" of healthcare workers in the US during COVID-19 not wearing masks with rapidly rising number of COVID-19 cases then mandated to w…

I've read the actual studies. They don't show benefits. > not demand other people to do it for you and not cherry pick garbage studies, The reason I ask you to provide the studies you think are persuasive is so we avoid the tedious discussion about cherry picking. I cannot cherry pick articles that you supply. If you want my link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... Lancet is a reputable h…

It seems outrageously wrong to me to summarize that Lancet article by saying "We have lots of RCTs on mask wearing (mostly in healthcare professionals) and they struggle to find a benefit." or "I've read the actual studies. They don't show benefits".

The Lancet article looks at dozens of studies of the relationship between mask-wearing and infection with coronaviruses. (Some SARS, some MERS, some COVID-19.) Those studies fall, without exception, into the three following categories.

1. A few saw no cases of infection with or without masks, and therefore tell us nothing about whether masks help and how much.

2. One saw no cases of infection with masks and just two without masks (in a fairly small sample). It somehow manages to report a relative risk of 1.03 for wearing masks (!), which I can only assume is the result of some statistical adjustment that doesn't quite make sense in this case. (The real conclusion from this one is: "This study doesn't provide enough data to draw any conclusions.")

3. In every single one of the others, wearing a mask was associated with lower probability of infection. Some of the studies weren't powerful enough for the difference to be (on its own) statistically significant, but all of them pointed in the same direction and the underpowered ones had relative risk point-estimates similar to those of the not-underpowered ones.

Sure, they report this as "low certainty" because, e.g., none of these studies was a proper randomized controlled trial. Sure, we would do well to get more data. But I see no possible way to characterize what it says in the ways you have.

They don't "struggle to find a benefit". They readily find a very considerable benefit. They don't "not show benefits". They absolutely do show benefits. There are issues: we don't have e.g. nice big RCTs where someone has somehow contrived to have two otherwise identical large populations of the general public make different mask-wearing choices, and that means that there is inevitably some uncertainty in applying the results to the question of what benefit there is from getting the public to wear masks. But it 's pure grade-A bullshit to say that the studies "don't show benefits".

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#107

Post by Kaze404 » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 8:57 PM UTC

9HZZRfNlpR wrote: post #89

Kaze404 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are sociological studies any less scientifical? Is the human behavior something not worth studying?

Because it's not science. Spain has been wearing masks for months now, 99% of people comply and it gets only worse and worse. Both of our statements are anecdotes.

It literally is science in any possible definition you can come up for the word. Your anecdotes don't really matter.

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#108

Post by spacing » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 9:13 PM UTC

URfejk wrote: post #35

More stuff on masks: A visual demonstration why masks don't work: https://videopress.com/v/4egEyh2b We did not identify any experimental volunteer studies that investigated whether surgical masks or N95 respirators could protect against infection: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-inf... Face mask use in health care workers has not been demonstrated to provide benefit in terms of cold symptoms…

That video is the dumbest thing I have ever seen. It doesn't make any sense. Vape Smoke isn't a fair comparision to droplets and aerosolized particles, masks didn't have a good seal at all, in of the them he was still holding the bottom of the mask open LOL.

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#109

Post by klyrs » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 9:17 PM UTC

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #104

klyrs wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that was a concern back in March. Back in March, when we had very little understanding of transmission and when hospitals were facing dire mask shortages. What has the surgeon general said since then? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-surgeon-general-jer... Are people on HN actually too stupid to learn how to properly wear a mask in 8 months time? I don't believe that. I think that each of us is smart eno…

You can characterize what you’re saying to simply: “just comply, citizen” That attitude is precisely what’s wrong with this situation. An elite who’s prescribing technocrat-informed decisions instead of offering balanced and neutral scientific conclusions. Meanwhile you can point to a long line of completely wrong technocratic advice during the pandemic. Always make sure you’re able to say “I might be completely wron…

Yes, you can point at a long line of mistakes. Wiser minds focus on possible solutions, when they exist, and mitigations when they don't. Masks are shown to be effective mitigations. You're being asked to understand the evidence at hand, and make a best effort to participate in the mitigation. Not to comply on blind faith.

And sure, I accept that I, and other scientists, make mistakes. To err is human. What about you?

Re: Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How

#110

Post by thu2111 » Sat, Oct 31, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

Accacin wrote: post #46

DanBC wrote: post #18

The headline says "masks work", then the article redefines masks to exclude the things that many people are wearing, and then adds further criteria that rules out most other people. It then fails to take into account research that shows that cotton masks become saturated with exhaled moisture and perspiration, and that stops their filtering properties. It also fails to take into account reductions in social distancin…

I'm pretty fed up of people acting so incredibly arrogant. Unless you can show evidence that wearing a mask is dangerous, and makes things worse, then just wear a mask. Stop trying to find reasons to prove everyone wrong. Some data someone else in the thread posted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24952278

Normally, you'd expect people demanding awkward and massive social change to show evidence that it works and isn't dangerous. You should not invert this by demanding people prove things don't work and aren't dangerous; that way lies madness.

But at any rate, we can see for ourselves how great an impact those mask mandates had:

https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/

https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/france-masks-ca...

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-ma...

Mask mandates don't seem to be associated with any impact on the graphs of positive test results, anywhere. If they don't work then they should not be used for all kinds of reasons, dangerousness is by no means the only factor that should determine decisions. Consider also cost, impact on the environment, choking hazards, comfort, psychological distress created by the appearance of fear and so on.

But as some of the writing on this acknowledges, masks long ago became purely political, so we should expect people to keep arguing from different assumptions and not agreeing.