The plans to reopen the economy are scary • Hacker News Board

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#101

Post by mymythisisthis » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:26 PM UTC

jmt_ wrote: post #77

mymythisisthis wrote: post #66

Lots of business are converting to delivery. I think this is good. The warehouse style of store, prevalent since the 1960s is an outdated model. Schools are moving more courses online. Another major upgrade. The restaurant experience hasn't been rewarding for a long time. People should learn to cook at home. Experiment with fancier cuts of organic meat. Movie theaters have been terrible for decades. Sticky floors, to…

But isn't there something to be said about the kind of human experiences each of the "outdated" industries you mentioned provide? Namely schools, stores, going to movie theaters with friends, etc. People like seeing and being around other people. Some really, really don't, but most do. Moving the majority of activities indoors forever will have a negative impact on the psyche of the most people. I agree that what mos…

What I see happening. People are indoors and pursing something that they are really interested in. Maybe knitting, trumpet playing, etc. They are connected with new people online who share the same interests as them. In a few months people will be connecting in person with these people. Modernity will do what modernity always does...connect people who have distinct, unique, interests together. As a society I think that we've outgrown the idea of just going to a movie theater and hanging out with friends. I think that the older model society will re-emerge...fraternities, social clubs, members only places, hackerspaces. Let's say you get passionate about a hobby right now, lets say playing an instrument. You'll want to find a safe space to meet. Maybe a few people will pitch in some cash and just rent a space to turn into a private hangout club. With the coming recession space will become cheaper.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#102

Post by siscia » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:28 PM UTC

sveng wrote: post #94

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

It’s going to take a while to unpack your comment. Until then, while you mention Ro, you might not know that some recent reports show it approaching 6 in some areas, not 2.x as thought by some over a month ago. With an Ro of 2.5 and a mean infection duration of 5 days, each person can cause infection of up to 244 cases in a month. Also, since testing is not widely and reliably available in most countries, there is no…

Sorry I wasn't clear.

Personally I am myself in the stricter form of quarantine I can do.

However, the argument I brought forward will start to raise stronger and stronger. And if we don't discuss about it, and if we don't do it fast, it will be problematic for everybody.

I personally don't even mind that much the lockdown, but I am not the only youngest around...

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#103

Post by sosborn » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:29 PM UTC

siscia wrote: post #71

sosborn wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people will die not just from the virus, but from inadequate medical care caused by overloaded hospitals. It’s a shit situation for young adults, but sometimes life isn’t fair.

Sure, but younger have less need of medical care in general. Moreover, lock down all the elders and the ICU won't be so busy...

> Sure, but younger have less need of medical care in general.

True, but that doesn't mean a whole lot of young people wouldn't needlessly die.

You seem really committed to turning this into a generational thing.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#104

Post by abfan1127 » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:30 PM UTC

DanielBMarkham wrote: post #60

As somebody who has been tracking and interested in this story since late January, the one thing I can without qualifications is that whatever seems true now will change in a few weeks' time. In general the outlook has gotten better as the data got better and we were able to compare notes, although there have been some setbacks, too. I don't think we'll ever, ever get back to "normal" as this is the pandemic we've be…

what do you mean "nobody has ever lived through this?" We've had huge pandemics in the past: the plague, Spanish Flu, measles, polio, smallpox. I agree we should be cautious about reading long-term plans.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#105

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:30 PM UTC

gnulinux wrote: post #100

siscia wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but younger have less need of medical care in general. Moreover, lock down all the elders and the ICU won't be so busy...

How do you lock down elders? Do you expect cops to look at people's IDs and check if they're 65+? This is ridiculous, the only practical way is to close places where people are inclined to gather such as bars/restaurants etc.

If we can ban people under 21 from bars we can ban people over 65. I'm not sure we should, but it's not a logistical impossibility.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#106

Post by lisper » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

> But should I really throw away on year of my life?

You don't have to throw it away. There are plenty of productive ways to spend your time.

Yes, social isolation is burdensome. But it's damn sight better than being dead.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#107

Post by vonmoltke » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

davidw wrote: post #87

frockington1 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

States shouldn't need federal guidance and should prefer not to receive it. Without federal oversight, states and municipalities can tailor policy to their own area

Having some states do the right things and others not doing so is kind of like having a pool with a peeing section.

The same is true for nations. Any argument for forcing the states to be subordinate to the federal government is also an argument for forcing the federal government, and all other national governments, to be subordinate to a single supra-national entity.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#108

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

gnulinux wrote: post #95

siscia wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe we both agree that locking down 20/30 years old people who still have to study, to meet people, to make experience, to find lovers and to find themselves is very different that lock down 70/80 years old people right? Then there is no doubts that the virus hit hardest the elders. Again, what I am saying is that younger people are hit by the lockdown much more than the elders while being the less concerned ab…

I'm 22 y.o. I simply do not understand this logic. Not being able to "find lovers" doesn't seem comparable to others dying. Yes, you will not be able to go to a bar and pick up girls/boys until things get better. These are not normal times, young people cannot act as if nothing is happening.

The argument here is about what should happen when things do get better. Many people are arguing that you shouldn't be allowed to go to a bar even then, because if you're allowed to have fun things might get worse again.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#109

Post by DanielBMarkham » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:33 PM UTC

abfan1127 wrote: post #104

DanielBMarkham wrote: post #60

As somebody who has been tracking and interested in this story since late January, the one thing I can without qualifications is that whatever seems true now will change in a few weeks' time. In general the outlook has gotten better as the data got better and we were able to compare notes, although there have been some setbacks, too. I don't think we'll ever, ever get back to "normal" as this is the pandemic we've be…

what do you mean "nobody has ever lived through this?" We've had huge pandemics in the past: the plague, Spanish Flu, measles, polio, smallpox. I agree we should be cautious about reading long-term plans.

I meant nobody alive today. I guess now we could argue about smallpox, measles, and the like, but I am working from the general definition of the last pandemic being the Spanish Flu.

I have added the two missing words to my original post for clarification. Thank you.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#110

Post by catalogia » Fri, Apr 10, 2020, 6:33 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #49

siscia wrote: post #40

For how much I understand the need to lower the curve and reduce the R0 of the infection, I start to see also another argument. We are basically pausing the life of younger people, indefinitely, to protect the elders. Again, since the quarantine started in my area I exist twice to buy groceries and that's all. So I understand the need and the importance of it. But should I really throw away on year of my life? Should…

This issue was addressed by the original UK policy that they about-faced on. Why? Because although it does not tend to kill young people, it does tend to put them in the hospital, and we cannot handle that many people in the hospital at once.

> it does tend to put them in the hospital,

Well no. It does sometimes, but it tends to not.