Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the NYT article on Italy today, frontline medics were saying that clinical symptoms were anecdotally more reliable than the tests because there are too many false negatives. Not sure whose tests they're using but I've heard similar things about US PCR tests. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/...
Yep! CT scans and clinician's experience is more reliable than any tests for COVID-19 diagnostics (which should only serving as a definitive confirmation). This also why I believe human doctors are still unbeatable by AI
Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
101–110 of 123 posts
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the NYT article on Italy today, frontline medics were saying that clinical symptoms were anecdotally more reliable than the tests because there are too many false negatives. Not sure whose tests they're using but I've heard similar things about US PCR tests. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/...
Yep! CT scans and clinician's experience is more reliable than any tests for COVID-19 diagnostics (which should only serving as a definitive confirmation). This also why I believe human doctors are still unbeatable by AI
Because you hypothesize that they can rapidly learn new, not very distinctive patterns without much data?
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
I suspect it's because this virus is optimized to enter cells that line the lungs/respiratory tract, then also sheds back that same way. Meanwhile, cells in, and along, the bloodstream aren't infected – and are most-trafficked by the body's immune response, including virus-destroying antibodies. (Why are rodents more prevalent in the walls/crawlspaces of a dwelling, rather than the hallways?)
But the lungs are full of blood, that's how we breath. So it's spreading mucosally or through connective tissue?
Research has shown (1) the distribution of ACE2 protein, the functional receptor for SARS-Cov and SARS-Cov-2 (2), to include various human organs (oral and nasal mucosa, nasopharynx, lung, stomach, small intestine, colon, skin, lymph nodes, thymus, bone marrow, spleen, liver, kidney, and brain) along with arterial and venous endothelial cells and arterial smooth muscle cells in all organs studied. And ACE2 mRNA has been found in virtually all organs. So there is definitely the potential for cells in the circulatory system binding viruses.
What may be significant here is the concentration of ACE2 protein in cell membranes. One Chinese analysis of a group of 170 Covid-19 fatalities(3) found half of the cases suffered from hypertension. ACE inhibitors are a class of medication prescribed for lowering blood pressure and according to models they increase the concentration of ACE2 protein in lower respiratory tract cells. Given that fatality results from respiratory distress originating in the lower respiratory tract and that not all cases progress to the lower respiratory tract it seems possible that the spread of the virus within the body may be related to concentration of ACE2 protein in cells. The disease progression would also support mucosal transport of the virus within individuals the same as between them.
(1) Tissue distribution of ACE2 protein, the functional receptor for SARS coronavirus. A first step in understanding SARS pathogenesis. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15141377 (2) Structure, Function, and Antigenicity of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Glycoprotein https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742... (3) Controversial Study Links COVID-19 Severity to ACEIs and ARBs (Newsweek, March 24, 2020)
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the NYT article on Italy today, frontline medics were saying that clinical symptoms were anecdotally more reliable than the tests because there are too many false negatives. Not sure whose tests they're using but I've heard similar things about US PCR tests. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/...
Yep! CT scans and clinician's experience is more reliable than any tests for COVID-19 diagnostics (which should only serving as a definitive confirmation). This also why I believe human doctors are still unbeatable by AI
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#105Favorite line from the article: "In terms of those who retested positive, the official party line is that they have not been proven to be infectious. That is not the same as saying they are not infectious," one of the Wuhan doctors who tested positive twice told NPR [...] "If they really are not infectious," the doctor said, "then there would be no need to take them back to the hospitals again." So why are the asympt…
Probably the same reason for mandatory 14 day quarantine for inbound travelers, China has the capacity to ere on the side of caution and enforce it.
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#106Literally false positive and false negatives. In other words, if you test millions of people, there will be more people tested positive who DON'T have the disease vs. those who test positive and HAVE the disease.
What I don't know and what the article doesn't seem to mention is if the false positive rates are known yet and if we have more or less than the expected number of 'reinfected'.
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#107Literally false positive and false negatives. In other words, if you test millions of people, there will be more people tested positive who DON'T have the disease vs. those who test positive and HAVE the disease.
If you know the false positive and false negative rates, then you can predict how many in a sample size of millions will end up falsely identified in this way. What I don't know and what the article doesn't seem to mention is if the false positive rates are known yet and if we have more or less than the expected number of 'reinfected'.
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
If China did in fact ship emergency medical supplies to Italy, that's a gesture worth recognizing and praising. "Carrying water" is a weird way of characterizing that recognition. China also deserves criticism; its initial response was dysfunctional in some ways (albeit somewhat different ways than the United States dysfunctional response). Fortunately, as you say, it's been blasted in some discussion. But recognitio…
I've never seen the mainstream media question the veracity of the statistics about Covid that came out of China until the evidence is too obvious to ignore. There is plenty of proof that they regularly manipulate their statistics such as GDP. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-g... https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/ etc Why should any respectable journalist quote their stat…
I don't see it frequently in writing, but the majority of TV and podcast reporting from news sites has the disclaimer. And there's enough China bad articles out there that I feel like this is implicitly assumed.
Either way, no one trusts Chinese stats, including the Chinese public themselves, and the Chinese government most of all. The ability to collect accurate statistics when there's so many different development levels country-wide simply isn't there. For example, China doesn't use GDP internally, they use LKI, LiKeQiang Index which aggregates a value from measurable indicators like freight cargo volume, electric consumption, bank loans. There's also TSF, Total Social Financing. They can still be gamed, but physically (running empty trains), but much harder to fake via submitting fake excel sheets to central government. Chinese GDP is basically a back of the napkin estimate to appease foreign investors, it's also used to set growth targets instead of reflecting it. Most of the mainstream western reporting on Chinese GDP does not understand this. It's well understood among China watchers. The most comprehensive study on Chinese GDP so far, by CSIS, suggested China was under reporting their GDP.
As for stacked urns in Wuhan, the city is still under quarantine so urns would not be picked up. Also necessary to account for other sources of death. The article quotes 56K cremations in Q4 2019, so a few thousands urns especially as restock doesn't seem atypical. Like LKI, it's an useful oblique indicator, but should be considered in other context. If there's mass death, enough to measurably affect hysterical people in quarantine, it would be on Chinese social media which would leak to China watchers. There's many expats and Chinese people with VPNs, things that affect the public on a mass scale inevitably leaps over the firewall, it's not opaque like politburo politics. People need to stop looking at Chinese numbers and instead extrapolate from oblique indicators. When expats in China talk about things returning to normal, when Chinese diaspora aren't mourning about sick or dead family members en-mass, then you can assume that reflects ground reality.
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think China is mostly telling the truth. Firstly, exports are hard to lie about. Order something from alibaba yourself, or here’s some graphs: https://www.plex.com/blogs/china-potential-model-for-post-co... Secondly, Trump would break that news if it were fact. Hiding 10’s of thousands of deaths and 100’s of thousands of very ill is extremely difficult in the modern world when relatives live overseas. Thirdly, I be…
> Thirdly, I believe that China can effectively enforce social barriers, restricting the spread of Covid19. It seems reasonable to believe they can control it, even though freer countries struggle. This part is huge. When apartment complexes are already surrounded by walls with a couple gates, it's easier to control flow of people in and out. The infrastructure already in place (yes I know, hardy har har, chinese bui…
Re: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
#110Don't believe anything that comes out of China
this kind of lazy thinking is probably no small contributor to the rest of the wider world squandering its 2 month advantage over this virus. I don't disagree with you that there are many suspicious acts surrounding China and this pandemic, but a blanket statement like that is nevertheless unconstructive.
Let me be very concise with this next statement: WAKE THE FUCK UP.
The entire world economy is fucked right now because the Chinese lied their little asses off to save face.