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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#101
post #63
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the "charging network" a thing that shouldn't be vendor locked? Imagine if every petrol pump was tied to specific makes of cars? Any current vendor lock-in of charging is surely at risk at being legislated away, by insisting that EV charging is done through a standard port like refueling petrol/diesel vehicles. If governments were serious about electric vehicles as a way of improving air quality they would legi…

Tesla payed a lot of money (billions) to build the super charger network. Money no government or other company seems to want to spend. Legislating away vendor lock-in would just cause companies to be even more averse to capital investment in recharging infrastructure.

I'm pretty sure gas station networks weren't built with public money. And other companies are investing in charger networks: https://ionity.eu/ or https://www.electrifyamerica.com/index

At least in the EU I'm 99% sure that the EU will mandate (if it hasn't already) a standard charging interface. Don't know about the US, it's a bit like the Wild West in this regard...

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see one good reason: the rest of the auto industry is playing catch up with Tesla. Nobody else afaik is even able to do over the air updates (reliable updates, that is). They have a charging network, the competition basically doesn't and can't seem to get their act together, and that's not even really a technological issue.

they do "over the air" updates? Of the software that powers the vehicle? Isn't that an _exceptionally_ dangerous vector?

It's very dangerous, but it used to be considered extremely dangerous to update anything in production until the likes of Google started doing it nearly two decades ago. The secret sauce is to use DevOps: automated testing and so on. But it's a culture the auto industry does not have. They can't do it for the same reason most banks for example can't do it (yet), and it's taking them years to get there.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see one good reason: the rest of the auto industry is playing catch up with Tesla. Nobody else afaik is even able to do over the air updates (reliable updates, that is). They have a charging network, the competition basically doesn't and can't seem to get their act together, and that's not even really a technological issue.

they do "over the air" updates? Of the software that powers the vehicle? Isn't that an _exceptionally_ dangerous vector?

Not if done correctly and you take security seriously. Most auto manufacturers outsource software development and engineering.

Tesla also offer pretty good bounties every year on PWN2OWN:

https://www.zdnet.com/article/tesla-car-hacked-at-pwn2own-co...

https://www.thezdi.com/blog/2020/1/8/pwn2own-returns-to-vanc...

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#104
post #53

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

> no one else has even come close to matching the 2012 Model S

Model S will always be a tiny market. How close are competitors to Model 3?

What happens when Tesla employees burn out on Tesla corp and go working for competitors?

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#105
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

Some of us are not buying TSLA today because we like where the company is today. We buying because they like where the company may be in 5 years.

This is the goal of every passive investor in any company..

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#106

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

This is Tesla not WeWorks. We often see companies having high valuation and this same sort of comment plays out. Implying that they have to deliver more cars than Volkswagen is also implying that their cars are equivalent. They are not. Tesla is the future, we saw this with Netflix. Folks couldn't understand it or believe it till blockbuster went broke.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing Tesla doesn’t have is the lock in that Apple has. If you are using iPhoto, iWatch and iMessage, switching to another manufacturer is hugely disruptive. I totally agree that Tesla’s software chops are light years ahead.

The important thing Tesla doesn't have that Apple does have is a 70% gross margin.

Where'd you get that number from? The sources I can find say Apple's gross margin is a bit under 40%. (Tesla's by comparison hovers around 20%.)

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#108

I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#109
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market cap is expected value of the sum of all discounted future earnings. So to be worth $100B, they have to earn that amount in future money eventually . Not within the next few years.

What's your discount rate for Tesla? Now, taking that into account (profits past a certain time period are essentially discounted to 0), over what period of time should they realistically collect that money for the valuation to make sense?

It is not specific to Tesla.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Present_value

If we assume a 3% inflation rate, 2030s earnings need to be discounted by 34%. 2040s earnings by 56%. And 2040s earnings by 71%.

As you can see, even 2040 earnings still have a substantial impact on today's value.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing Tesla doesn’t have is the lock in that Apple has. If you are using iPhoto, iWatch and iMessage, switching to another manufacturer is hugely disruptive. I totally agree that Tesla’s software chops are light years ahead.

The important thing Tesla doesn't have that Apple does have is a 70% gross margin.

Don't know if everyone sees it this way, but imo this makes the brand attraction stronger.
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