What Will Happen in the 2020s • Hacker News Board

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#101

Post by rvz » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:21 PM UTC

Some of the points made here I agree with, probably slightly more accurate that the other warped predictions I’ve seen so far.

However, I question that predictions /2 and /6 seem to be wildly far-fetched that it’s as if the author based his predictions from a damaged magic mirror.

/2) While the tech is there for automation, Several safety and regulatory requirements the AI technology is not transparent enough to completely replace workers. This will take more years to only end up being a complimentary tool for its users.

/6) doesn’t sound very realistic to achieve in this decade. The research is experimental or starting to emerge but not mature yet for be available to all yet and will not be in this decade. Probably the next or very late 2020s.

I’m surprised to see that mainstream AR not being mentioned nor the further regulation of tech being detailed more in this article.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#102

Post by csomar » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

> The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one.

I don't think so. WWII was a war between two fronts. Climate change affects countries very differently. The ones not affected much will unlikely contribute. My guess is that everyone to his own in this one.

> experiments to reallocate wealth and income more equitably will produce a new generation of world leaders who ride this wave to popularity.

I don't think it'll be more than experiments. Capital is very sensitive to being grabbed by government for the benefit of the "people". My guess is that we'll see countries that try to have their industries collapse; while other countries letting that capital flow to them.

> China will emerge as the world’s dominant global superpower

China is doomed to fail in the long run. Not sure if it's going to happen in the next decade or later, though. But it'd be all good and hopefully democracy is established.

> Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies, led by China who moves first and benefits the most from this move.

This was already tried and failed. Crypto-currencies have no meaning without the decentralized factor. Governments will never be able to establish their crypto due to the fact that they want to control the underlying.

> Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized finance technologies

Kinda related to the point above. Countries with low taxes are going to boom further as western countries are tightening their fiscal game.

> A decentralized internet will emerge, led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc.

I, very, believe this one and hope it happens in the next decade.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#103

Post by npo9 » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #63

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…

Beaming in might be popular for some use cases, however physical presence will still be the gold standard. VR/AR will always represent a big drop in information density compared to reality. In human conversation even a 75ms lag would be noticeable compared to real-time. I highly doubt looking at a vr projections eyes can match the same intensity as looking at a real person’s. Also, VR completely removes items such as touch and smell.

How much data does a human 6 feet away from you project to you? How much of that data enters your conscious? How much enters your subconscious? With Moore’s law dying we can’t hope to match that amount of information, much less accurately record and transport it in real time. Lossy capture and output mechanisms will still be present in a decade.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#104

Post by graycat » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

trentnix wrote: post #25

lettergram wrote: post #13

I kind of doubt most of these. My prediction: 1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. 2. we will have further centralization of the internet 3. Solar will only account for 10k Gw 4. Agree that nuclear will make a massive resurgence 5. Gas will still be the dominate power source for mobile transportation, but less so. Thi…

I'd bet the farm, all the farms, that your list turns out more correct than the one at the link. The item on your list I have the biggest issue with is 10. We'll still be catching plenty of fish in the wild (but some places that fish are plentiful today won't be that way) in another 10 years.

Blank.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#105

Post by burfog » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:27 PM UTC

yes_man wrote: post #97

chukye wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice discussion folks.. BUT, there is an argument that never makes sense to me "the nature ecosystem could never sustain current amounts of meat consumption", so how can nature sustain amounts of PLANT consumption IF we all change it to plant-based diets? This does not make sense since for 1 piece of meat we need to eat dozen of different plants; plants as food have a huge impact in nature too.

The animals eat a lot more plants for a pound of meat they gain than humans would need if we only ate the plants. We are in the first day of this year and already over 120 million animals have been killed in the US for food. Approximations on amount of animals killed each year for food in the USA vary, but it is in tens of billions. Can you imagine the strain natural ecosystem would need to sustain to support tens of…

Humans are not ruminants. We can not survive on hay. We can survive on the high-nutrition parts of plants, but creating these parts is resource-intensive. In some cases the whole plant is simply difficult to grow (pests, fertilizer, etc.) and in other cases we don't get very much food from each plant.

There is a whole lot of tree attached to a cashew.

Goats and sheep are happy to eat the weeds on a rocky hill, and cattle do almost as well.

Other food animals are happy to eat disgusting waste. Pigs, chickens, and catfish are especially willing.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#106

Post by DrAwdeOccarim » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:29 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #61

neonate wrote: post #45

https://web.archive.org/web/20200101163454/https://avc.com/2...

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Totally agree and signed up for monthly recurring $10.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#107

Post by nopinsight » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:38 PM UTC

brobinson wrote: post #84

andrepd wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>China will fall >Saudi will have a violent revolution Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction. The ways in which modern states can maintain power and suppress their people is overwhelming. China can and has built perhaps the most oppressive totalitarian state ever to have existed. Saudi is diversifying its absurd wealth to resist downturns in oil, and the "first w…

The PRC's working population peaks somewhere between right now and the next 5 years. By 2050, over 1/3 of their population is over 65 years old. They've been under replenishment birth rates for a long time. Their population pyramid is really, truly scary. Their highly leveraged economy will not survive at "6%" growth over the next decade. It is not clear that they will escape the Middle Income Trap [1]. They are stru…

Given their focus on technology and modernization and massive investment in R&D and STEM education, it is likely that China will grow further still. China’s R&D investment is now at the top of the world about on par with the US. There are also a very high number of capable engineers in China as suggested by PISA results.

A key difference with middle income countries that only earn export income as manufacturing base is that there are quite a few Chinese companies that possess its own technology and brands. DJI, Oppo, Xiaomi are some examples. Many of these brands are not well known in the US but have become increasingly competitive with global brands, at least in some respect, in Asia and perhaps elsewhere.

It might make sense to compare them to Korean brands a while back, with an additional advantage of massive domestic market.

Their forward-looking focus on major industries of tomorrow like AI, EV, and biotech does not hurt either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21868570

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21692002

Since there are many areas in China that could be further developed, the service sector will also likely grow.

My point is that the US ought not get complacent and believe in wishful thinking that competition from China will simply go away in time.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#108

Post by NeedMoreTea » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #54

throwlaplace wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. >6. Saudi Arabia will have a violent revolution why do people make these kinds of predictions. they're so uninformed it's beyond the pale. china and SA are two of the most authoritarian and simultaneously well-funded (effective and efficient) governments on the planets -- we're no…

Many were alive when the Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain fell. That makes such large upheavals believable. The weakness of authoritarian regimes is that by their nature dissention is hidden. Those in charge aren't really aware of how far they're overshooting until it's too late to release some of the pressure. I don't understand Chinese culture or their current situation enough to say whether or not they're in dang…

Not to me. Soviet Union's fall was a very unique set of events, some unique to the time and sweep of history, some just plain unique. It was a combination of the right leaders, Chernobyl, fallout from WW2 divisions such as the Baltic States Molotov Pact protests, and Solidarity and Lech Walesa in Poland, then the right chain of events over a decade.

Many of those Soviet Republics were very reluctant participants, forcibly occupied with underlying resentment going back centuries in a couple of cases, to WW2 in others.

There seem very few parallels with Saudi or China.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#109

Post by politelemon » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:42 PM UTC

I would take a pessimistic view on #8:

> Mass surveillance by governments and corporations will become normal and expected this decade and people will increasingly turn to new products and services to protect themselves from surveillance. The biggest consumer technology successes of this decade will be in the area of privacy.

I'd take this a step further and fear that not only will it become the norm, even making use of privacy tech and devices will be viewed with suspicion or may even serve as barriers towards getting access to various societal instruments.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#110

Post by runarberg » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 6:43 PM UTC

graycat wrote: post #104

trentnix wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd bet the farm, all the farms, that your list turns out more correct than the one at the link. The item on your list I have the biggest issue with is 10. We'll still be catching plenty of fish in the wild (but some places that fish are plentiful today won't be that way) in another 10 years.

Blank.

Even if over fishing is under control there is still an issue with climate change and everything that comes with it, including ocean acidification, ocean current disruptions, migrations of pervasive alien species, collapse of important local populations (due to the above).

So even if over fishing is not a threat any more, our ocean food source is still at huge risk.