Earlier quoted context omitted.
Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared
Amazon was kind of similar Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three downvotes as of now. I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities.…
Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
101–110 of 225 posts
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#102Wikipedia has a chart of past deliveries, for comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries Looks like Model 3 is up about 10% from the previous quarter, which is not like 2018Q2-to-Q3 which nearly doubled, but is still a significant bump up.
Gigafactory 3 in China comes online this month. Manufacturing lines are already validated. I’d expect an increased step up in quarterly deliveries going forward. Also, no more Fremont->China ocean shipping delay. This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year. This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.
Tesla has never been able to bring a production line online without a year or so of significant problems.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
TSLAQ is actually quite happy with this number, with the stock down 5% AH. The multiple on this stock has it pegged to be an extreme growth company, but 5% annualized delivery growth with shrinking ASPs is decidedly not a "growth" number. TSLAQ is wrong that it's a fraud and/or insolvent. But they're absolutely right that its valuation is absurd and needs to eventually come down to meet reality.
That annualized delivery growth figure does not take into account that the Fremont factory is pegged, they have another factory coming online this quarter, and have 4 unreleased vehicles in the pipeline—-more than doubling their lineup—-one of which (Model Y crossover) is in the hottest segment.
The Fremont factory was supposed to deliver 10K cars a week.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
Demand mix is a huge problem though. Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit. Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.
I'm sorry for being pedantic here - but your final sentence does not necessarily follow from the previous. Lowering ARPUs and tightening gross margin % are an issue - yes. But the single most important factor here is gross margin in absolute terms. If sales volume increases to offset decreasing ARPUs, this doesn't make 'Tesla's fiscal position simply unsustainable'.
Sales volumes are not offsetting decreasing ARPUs though.
That's the problem. And you only have to look at Tesla's profit numbers to see this.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#105That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.
Demand mix is a huge problem though. Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit. Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.
Last 4 quarters of free cash flow, seems quite sustainable:
June 30, 2019 590.40M
March 31, 2019 -944.80M
Dec. 31, 2018 880.66M
Sept. 30, 2018 831.52MRe: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
Amazon was kind of similar Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three downvotes as of now. I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities.…
Not every loss making company is an Amazon in the making :) Tesla is likely coming to the end of the period where they have a relatively unique portfolio of products. We're starting to see the traditional car makers come up with competitive vehicles. Whilst Tesla may ride this out fine, it's likely to have an impact on things like margins, going forward.
Is there an electric car that is a true competitor to the Model S?
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#107Forecasters had expected 99,000, so below targets. Tesla has said they are targeting 400,000 for the year, so Q4 will need to be quite something.
Which forecasters? Morgan Stanley put out a note just this morning predicting 91,000 deliveries: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/morgan-stanley-predicts... One of the most prominent TSLA shorts was predicting 82,000: https://mobile.twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/1167484390366... Full-year guidance is 360,000 - 400,000. They should have no problem hitting the lower end at this point.
Spiegel is remarkably and consistently wrong about everything related to TSLA, yet always full of sound and fury about it. From the aspect of a relatively neutral observer (me, although I like Tesla) he's a remarkable character study. I often read his Twitter in a state of bemused horror.
He runs his "long-shirt macro hedge fund" out of his 1 bedroom upper east side apartment but probably manages (significantly) less than 10MM USD, although he stopped releasing figures. I'm fascinated by how someone ends up like him. The absolute insistence in his own ability despite all reasonable evidence to the contrary is something to behold.
I have to acknowledge the possibility that his public personality is at least to some extent a performance, perhaps designed to raise his profile among potential investors. But he's so consistently and thoroughly repulsive (see his pinned Twitter non-apology for a since-deleted "joke" involving Epstein, Greta Thunberg, and child rape) among others that I don't think it's all performative.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla has a major headstart and noone is near them or gaining on them. It's actually simpler. The attack campaigns negatively influence the stock.
Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.
Where’s the charging network? Why do you not mention 100-150 miles less range when comparing the Taycan to the S and X?
“The maximum range for the Taycan is listed as just 450 km (279 miles) on the WLTP test cycle. The Audi is rated at 255 miles on WLTP and 204 on the U.S, EPA cycle. When the Taycan gets its EPA certification, it will likely have a range of around 220 miles.” - Forbes
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can the Taycan compete on price, speed, range, and charging network? AFAIK it loses in all of those categories.
Can a Tesla compete on brand, design, interior fit, build quality, support, charging speed, repeatability, handing ? AFAIK it loses in all of these categories.
I thought Tesla superchargers have faster charging speed? They have 150kW charging, is Porsche doing something better?
OP said Taycan is the new Model S, I think that your comment vs. mine highlights that this isn't true -- Taycan customers are not the same as Tesla customers. Tesla customers get a good bang for their buck -- speed, range, charging network at a cheap price. Porsche customers get brand, design, & build quality.
Someone who values what Porsche has to offer probably was never interested in a Tesla.
Meanwhile a Model 3 Performance -- the same speed as the Taycan -- costs $90,000 less.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla has a major headstart and noone is near them or gaining on them. It's actually simpler. The attack campaigns negatively influence the stock.
Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.
The Taycan is more expensive and has 100 less miles range than the S.
The VW ID.3 is ugly, and it's long range version is 100 less miles than the Model 3 long range version.
Neither have Tesla's charging network either.
Range and charging is the most important thing about an ELECTRIC car. 100 miles is a big gap, and every car coming out has that gap.