China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas • Hacker News Board

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#101

Post by linkregister » Thu, Jul 18, 2019, 9:39 PM UTC

RidingPegasus wrote: post #86

linkregister wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed has been talking about U6 since before Yellen took the chair. The Fed's entire dovish stance on interest rates was publicly predicated on low labor force participation being unaccounted-for slack. The unemployment rate vs labor force participation has been a part of Presidential debates since 2012, and also figured in the 2010 Congressional elections. If you want to know more about how U.S. government debt is…

> if a bit dry That's part of the problem. Journalists avoid a deep dive into the nitty gritty that might muddy the narrative. Of course economists discuss this and are more aware of it than any other group. But how stats are presented (marketed?) on the outside should be of concern to anyone caring about their own democratic system where this stuff sways millions of votes. > seems like a whataboutism argument It's t…

> whataboutism

Fair enough, it's a term that is only accurate if the arguer is employing deception. You were not. You genuinely didn't know about labor participation being a large part of the public discourse for the past 9 years.

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#102

Post by Fjolsvith » Thu, Jul 18, 2019, 10:37 PM UTC

RidingPegasus wrote: post #48

Fjolsvith wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Newer research says it could be half the 6.3%. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/bpea_20... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/c...

Thanks, which page or figure on the Brookings pdf should I be looking at?

Try page 1:

"China’s national accounts are based on data collected by local governments. However, since local governments are rewarded for meeting growth and investment targets, they have an incentive to skew local statistics. China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) adjusts the data provided by local governments to calculate GDP at the national level. The adjustments made by the NBS average 5% of GDP since the mid-2000s. On the production side, the discrepancy between local and aggregate GDP is entirely driven by the gap between local and national estimates of industrial output. On the expenditure side, the gap is in investment. Local statistics increasingly misrepresent the true numbers after 2008, but there was no corresponding change in the adjustment made by the NBS. Using publicly available data, we provide revised estimates of local and national GDP by re-estimating output of industrial, construction, wholesale and retail firms using data on value-added taxes. We also use several local economic indicators that are less likely to be manipulated by local governments to estimate local and aggregate GDP. The estimates also suggest that the adjustments by the NBS were insufficient after 2008. Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDP growth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in 2016 is 7 percentage points lower."

Re: China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas

#103

Post by tepidandroid » Thu, Jul 18, 2019, 11:39 PM UTC

deehouie wrote: post #65

tepidandroid wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And The Economist. Can’t forget The Economist’s constant and sustained death knelling over China’s economy over the years. I just file all these away along with the other 8447372 similar articles predicting the imminent collapse of China.

Can you pls post some links. I'm a die-hard collector of these articles.

They are mentally filed away, so I don't have them off-hand sorry :)

But it was largely due to their lack of credibility on China that I had to unsubscribe. Open up any Economist article on China and you'll quickly see what I mean.