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Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

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Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#101
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because not everything is dollars and cents in the end to everyone? Some people value the autonomy a small business gives you along with the work life balance.

You don't take VC money if you want to build a lifestyle business.

Not prioritizing growth at all costs != lifestyle business

Nor does not taking VC money mean you're a lifestyle business

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why dont they? Or are there 2 people willing to take the place of every person leaving?

The Bay Area is experiencing population growth due to birth and foreign immigration despite net domestic outmigration.

I had dinner with a co-founder of Hotmail who has spent years buying up lots of real estate in the Bay Area. They commented that less than 4% of property in San Francisco is owned by someone born in the city.

Don’t know how to fact check that but it would be fascinating if true.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#103

> I still expect a significant % of the $10B+ startups will get created here, so it makes sense for investors to still focus here. But I bet a lot of the ~$100M startups will happen elsewhere. > There are still some things—e.g great startup executive talent, particular kinds of engineering talent—that are much harder to find outside the bay area. This is spot on and it becomes a real bottle neck if you want to scale…

Why doesn’t your employees move out of Bay Area with you? Assuming if you keep offering same comp, this would cut down mortgage expenses to half and even gain much better housing in better school areas. It should be no brainer to move out if comp remains same. So you can come in to shop for talent, have them work remotely until they are ready. No need to open expensive offices in Bay Area.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#104
post #97
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Bay Area has less than 1/30th the US population and yet the majority of US unicorns and decacorns have hailed from here. It's wildly disproportionate.

Is this attributable to the quality of the startups or the easy access to capital?

I’d say it’s the people — combination of mindset and talent. Self-selecting group traveling to a place where only the strong can survive and the exceptional can thrive.

Most of the people I work with day to day are not just brilliant, but extremely driven as well. That was never true in the other places I’ve lived. The were lots of brilliant lazy people, and lots of super driven, less naturally gifted people.

In the Bay Area you kinda have to be both and have your eye on some bigger future, or there’s no point in being here.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#105
post #10

I see a bright future for products and services focused on remote team management

I think so too. The gold standard of productivity communication - slack, doesn't have voice clips, whatsapp doesn't have searching in voice clips, etc. none of the messengers have screen sharing except for fb messenger. Would be nice to see something that isnt very expensive and had the needed features.

Slack has great screen sharing.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#106
post #97
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Bay Area has less than 1/30th the US population and yet the majority of US unicorns and decacorns have hailed from here. It's wildly disproportionate.

Is this attributable to the quality of the startups or the easy access to capital?

Easy access to capital, easy access to large numbers of potential employees (many of whom have prior experience working for tech startups), and access to early-adopter customers / users.

Whether you'd consider that "quality of startup" or not is up to you. When it comes to hyper growth success, there are multiple structural factors that really make it easier to scale in the Bay Area, despite the 2-3x multiplier in cost per employee.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#107

> I still expect a significant % of the $10B+ startups will get created here, so it makes sense for investors to still focus here. But I bet a lot of the ~$100M startups will happen elsewhere. > There are still some things—e.g great startup executive talent, particular kinds of engineering talent—that are much harder to find outside the bay area. This is spot on and it becomes a real bottle neck if you want to scale…

Why doesn’t your employees move out of Bay Area with you? Assuming if you keep offering same comp, this would cut down mortgage expenses to half and even gain much better housing in better school areas. It should be no brainer to move out if comp remains same. So you can come in to shop for talent, have them work remotely until they are ready. No need to open expensive offices in Bay Area.

Not everyone is willing to move. If you're looking for very specialized engineers you might end up with only a single potential hire who is unwilling to uproot his/her family.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#108
post #73

Last paragraph: > This is particularly true in Silicon Valley, where a recent think tank report estimates that 17 percent of workers in “highly technical occupations” are native Californians, with 40 percent hailing from India or China and 29 percent from other non-U.S. countries. And I thought Toronto was multicultural (~51% born outside of Canada)! I wonder what is the rate regardless of occupation? Edit to answer…

San Francisco != Silicon Valley.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#109

I suspect the VC industry itself will be disrupted at some point (the irony of the VC industry is that the biz model has remained basically the same for 50 years when everything else has changed). It will become incrementally easier to raise money from non-traditional sources at better terms as "accredited investor" laws are relaxed e.g. through a Security Token Offering.

I'm not sure I see the general public wanting to invest in startups, the success rate is just too low.

What if YC or 500startups were allowed to go public and people can buy their stock? Returns on YC model far exceeds S&P. I think pg has created an incredible framework which can be further evolved in open markets. I can absolutely see S&P index dominated by company-aggregators as opposed to individual companies. That seems to be the natural evolution.

Re: Sam Altman: Bay Area is no longer the obvious place for startups

#110
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> by dealing with all kinds of things that shouldn’t matter. Can you give some examples?

The line below that seems like a hint: > We’ve run into serious talent recruiting issues when we reached this stage

Yes, but he said things that "shouldn't matter". Recruiting clearly matters.
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