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Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

nytimes.com

101–110 of 129 posts

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#101
post #3

Entire Indonesia is falling apart. Economic development is terribly slow over long term and their main export industries (oil, mining, coal and palm oil - [1]) do not seem to have a future due to underinvestment and drying demand. Quite sad.. Such a beautiful, diverse country and nice people. [1] https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/idn/#Exports

Economic development is not so bad at the moment - about 5% per annum gdp growth, per capita about 3.5%.

They are not very organised with their city planning and development though - nearby low lying Singapore has reclaimed loads of land at the same time Jakarta has been sinking. Nyt article on that one https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/magazine/how-singapore-is...

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See the starting point below. It will take you five minutes to do the calculations. Then you make up your mind if "politically correct" is an appropriate label.

Starting point? I though they were "simple calculations" that you had already easily performed and completely finished correctly, that anyone else should easily be able to do, which proved your point beyond a doubt. Why are you changing the goalposts? Take the five minutes and finish your own homework yourself instead of telling me to do it for you. "Politically Correct" describes the Trump Administration's political…

The starting point is the figures given so for those who cannot or are not able to look up the figures for themselves can do the calculations. It appears that some people are incapable of doing even the easiest of searches for freely available information.

IT is obvious that you are thinking that when someone supplies you with the starting point and then encourages you to take the next step that you consider that they are unable to do so themselves.

"Politically correct" is no less a label to be applied to any of the political arena's (such as the Trump administration or the failed attempt by the Clinton Team) than it is to be applied to many areas in Science, Medicine and other supposedly logical disciplines. When dogma takes over and fights against systematic investigation of a subject then "political correctness" is on the march.

If you fail to see this happening, mayhaps, you should do a systematic study of history with regards to science and technology. People are people and all of us have biases. It takes work to not allow those biases to get in the road of systematic investigation.

If the Emperor's New Clothes are unseen then one has the opportunity to say such. In this particular case, the Emperor's New Clothes are the 1 to 10 metre ocean level rise scenarios.

You have the opportunity to call me any thing you like. I don't agree with Mr Trump. The US had a choice between two disagreeable teams, Trump who is an Isolationist and Clinton who is a Globalist. Neither was going to be useful to the future of the US.

The "burden of proof" lies with the anthropogenic climate change (ACC) community. Answering simple questions like "where the energy processes are" in a forthright manner instead of the essentially sensationalist manner that has been their habit for decades, would go a long way to be credible.

If someone says to you that it is storming outside, do you just believe them or do you actually look outside and do your own investigation? I have given you the base information and if you cannot be proactive enough to spend five minutes doing your calculations then what expectation should I have of you actually spending five minutes looking at any detailed figures I give you?

Since you bring up evolution, no I don't believe in the evolutionary theory (or theories) being promulgated. My reason is because I spent a lot of time reading the experimental evidence that was done and noting that the conclusions derived by those experimenters was different to the evidence that they found. Since, at that time, I was a believer in evolution, this made no sense to me and challenged me to look at it further. My considered opinion is that evolution as promulgated is dogma and has no basis in reality. I consider the various theories of evolution and the attendant alternatives in intelligent design to be philosophical and religious in nature and not science.

It is unfortunate that all sorts of people engage in the sexual harassment and sexual domination of others. This is inappropriate at any time, no matter whether it is a man doing it to a woman or to another man or a woman doing it to a man or another woman. The interesting thing is that some of those victims will be liars and others will be deeply hurt victims. The question is determining the truth of the matter.

However, that is a social matter that is not relevant to the discussion of whether or not climate science is full of dogma. Bringing up such is simply saying that you are so caught up in your dogma that you cannot afford to listen and discuss with someone else an idea that is opposed to your world view and that you are willing to attack the man instead of the statement.

I have robust discussions with various people and those of us who partake are expected to defend our stand points, with the expectation that those disagreeing will also actively contribute.

The emperor is naked and it is time for people to stand and say so.

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To make things real simple for those who can't use a search engine, try the following earth surface area: 510072000 sq km ocean surface area: 361132000 sq km latent heat of melting (ice to water): 334 kJ/kg From these you can calculate the amount (volume) of land based ice required for whatever ocean level rise you need and the amount of energy required to melt said ice. Note that since only a portion of energy will…

Surface area? Don't you need volume to compute the thermal expansion of the ocean? And you also need the volume of land ice to compute how much might melt... if you want to convince people, you need to do more than just provide four statistics and walk away, you need to show how you use those to compute the level of expansion. Which you haven't done, and I'm 99% sure you can't with just those four numbers.

Surface area by height (1 to 10 metres) is volume. Of course, if one doesn't know that specific idea then one might be stuck. The volume of land ice can be assumed to be sufficient by the scenarios given. As far as ice expansion is concerned, not really relevant for a first approximation for the energy required as it is relatively small.

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have provided this information in detail in the past and those who have challenged me to do so haven't even bothered to check it or respond. The information is freely available in all sort of resources. The bits you need are the surface area of the earth and the surface area of the oceans, the volume of land based ice required to melt to fill the appropriate surface area to whatever level you require (in my case 1…

Now that your rant has ended, have you ever considered the possibility that there are other reasons you're an anathema and nobody takes you seriously, other than a well organized worldwide conspiracy against you? That would be the scientific thing to do. First it was 5 minutes. Now it's 20 minutes. Why do you keep missing your own deadlines and changing the goalposts more often than you post any citations to scientif…

Now I get it why there was a comment on another thread about a cross thread commenting war with you. This is funny.

But let's say, that 20 minutes if you look up the information yourself and you are slow about it, 5 minutes if given the starting point. Of course if you cannot use a calculation device other than pencil/pen and paper (or blackboard and chalk) then it might take you longer.

I have the calculations sitting in spreadsheet on my machine and I have emails to various people with those calculations, but as you are unable to spend 5 minutes doing, I can't expect you to spend 5 minutes reading.

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#106
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The tagline for the article: > "...And it has to deal with mounting threats from climate change." Paragraphs 4,5,6: One local climate researcher, Irvan Pulungan, an adviser to the city’s governor, fears that temperatures may rise several degrees Fahrenheit, and the sea level as much as three feet in the region, over the coming century. That, alone, spells potential disaster for this teeming metropolis. But global war…

It was probably written, added, or altered by an editor, not the reporter.

Will someone who is looking for a objective reason to not trust the WSJ on the environment care why it is wrong/alarmist? This is perfect for confirmation bias.

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#107

So the city is sinking many inches, even feet per year(due to excessive ground water withdrawals). With all the problems the city has, how does climate change(an average sea level rise of a few millimeters per year) even wind up on the reporters radar? I'm no denier, but it aggravates me when someone tries to force a connection to global warming/climate change.

I'm no $whatever, but anything after the word "but" in this sentence structure usually contradicts the first clause of the sentence. https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/I%27m_not_prejudiced,_but%2e%2...

But it doesn't in this case. It aggravates me as well, the indisputable facts are more than convincing on their own, but when someone starts stretching the truth, I get very suspicious and critical.

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#108
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>will affect every coastal city in the world, not just Jakarta. 1) No duh. Who was that statement for? Nobody is debating that GW is terrible. But we're not talking about global warming. 2) You're doing exactly what he's talking about. Shoehorning in global warming where it's not needed. You can discuss murder rates of a single city without shoehorning in murder rates of the "highest murder rate city in the world" ev…

While I agree with the sentiment that spurious connections should be avoided, I'm not really sure how to make sense of your examples. They seem to apply to a different type of article. This one is about Jakarta, which is anologous to the murder capital for costal problems. That said, while a spurious connection need not be drawn I. The article, it is relevant to compare and Co Trasylol the rate of change with global…

> That said, while a spurious connection need not be drawn I. The article, it is relevant to compare and Co Trasylol the rate of change with global sea level rise

Isn't that the very argument though, that the article wasn't just making reference to global warming endangering Jakarta, but was leading the article with saying Jakarta was primarily in trouble because of global warming, when the biggest immediate issue is sinking due to use of groundwater?

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To make things real simple for those who can't use a search engine, try the following earth surface area: 510072000 sq km ocean surface area: 361132000 sq km latent heat of melting (ice to water): 334 kJ/kg From these you can calculate the amount (volume) of land based ice required for whatever ocean level rise you need and the amount of energy required to melt said ice. Note that since only a portion of energy will…

Shripadk, mean sea level is actually irrelevant as far as these calculation are concerned. Really irrelevant. The climate scientists throw around their 1 to 10 metre or more scenarios and so all we need concern ourselves with is the gross minimum volume of ice required to melt. Since the planet is an oblate sphere with a non-uniform land distribution and we have a large moon orbiting the planet, any prediction of wha…

How is mean sea level irrelevant? Global warming directly affects the mean sea level. You don't need to go around measuring surface area/volume of ocean,ice and land and what not! All you need is to calculate the mean sea level and compare it with historical data.

And your theory on tidal effects of the moon falls flat because mean sea level takes all those factors into consideration! How? The name itself suggests that it's a "mean" over all variations in the sea levels due to tidal or inundation effects. Unless the gravitational pull of the moon dramatically increased or the moon got closer to the Earth your theory makes some sense. But the effects are pretty uniform. So mean sea level is the only meaningful statistic here. It's real and measurable. Everything else is bogus claims by climate change deniers!

Re: Jakarta Is Sinking So Fast, It Could End Up Underwater

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These simple calculations and the data needed for them would be a great thing for you to provide to support your claims.

To make things real simple for those who can't use a search engine, try the following earth surface area: 510072000 sq km ocean surface area: 361132000 sq km latent heat of melting (ice to water): 334 kJ/kg From these you can calculate the amount (volume) of land based ice required for whatever ocean level rise you need and the amount of energy required to melt said ice. Note that since only a portion of energy will…

  from sympy.physics.units import *
  import sympy
  pi = float(sympy.pi)

  earth_surface_area = 510072000 * kilometer**2

  ocean_surface_area = 361132000 * kilometer**2

  latent_heat_of_melting = 334 *(kilo*joule)/kilogram

  volume_for_1_meter_rise = (1*meter) * ocean_surface_area

  # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_(data_page)
  density_of_water_at_0_deg_celsius = 0.9998395 * gram / centimeter**3

  mass_of_ice = density_of_water_at_0_deg_celsius * volume_for_1_meter_rise

  energy_for_melting = latent_heat_of_melting*mass_of_ice

  convert_to(energy_for_melting, joule) # 1.20598728796876e+23*joule
Is that a lot? Compare to the amount of energy received from the sun.

  # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight#Total_solar_irradiance_(TSI)_and_spectral_solar_irradiance_(SSI)_upon_Earth
  solar_irradiance = 1.361 * (kilo*watt)/(meter**2)

  # https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
  earth_radius = 6371 * kilometer

  earth_cross_section = pi * earth_radius**2

  total_solar_irradiance = solar_irradiance * earth_cross_section

  time_for_melting = energy_for_melting / total_solar_irradiance
  
  convert_to(time_for_melting, years) # 0.0220203816289806*tropical_year
What is your fudge factor for how much of that energy gets dumped into melting ice? 1000? 10000? Even then you get quite a few centimeters on the scale of decades or centuries.
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