11–20 of 120 posts
Doing a Nuclear test is one thing, mounting it on a rocket and sending it far away is another.
I think they decided to stop this before it gets ugly.
And nobody cares because there is no oil or other goods to harvest in North Korea.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The unfortunate reality is that a "threat" of war, or even a war itself, is what it might take for real changes to take place in the country. That sucks for the people in the short run, but might change the game for their future.
Threatening a nuclear strike is pretty serious stuff - I hope the North Koreans are sensible enough not to fuel up any rockets in the near future... I also wonder if there is a back channel somewhere where they tell the Chinese, who would then presumably tell the US, that they really are just posturing and there is no real threat.
The more serious threat is the artillery pointed at Soeul...
I've been wondering all day how this will end, and especially if anything will happen on/before the 11th of March when North Korea will apparently cancel cease-fire if the South don't stop doing drills.
Wow. More juvenile posturing, or the beginning of the end for North Korea? Depends on whether anyone takes them seriously. And with a growing nuclear capability, they can't be taken not-seriously. This is suicide for them.
I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.
It is probably also worth noting that every single western nuclear power reserves the right to first use of nuclear weapons. In fact, the only countries who have ever adopted a no first use policy are the USSR/Russia (for 2 decades, but not any more), India (this is apparently more ambiguous now) and China (who continue to hold to it).
Wikipedia briefly mentions a North Korean pledge to the same effect, but I think this latest news shows that we should probably not take that too seriously.
Wow. More juvenile posturing, or the beginning of the end for North Korea? Depends on whether anyone takes them seriously. And with a growing nuclear capability, they can't be taken not-seriously. This is suicide for them.
I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.
There's an interesting segment in this psychology lecture about irrationality that seems related:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5IrSEIPdwk#t=44m36s
There is some advantage to being irrational, to having a temper.
Because if you have a temper and you're known to be irrational, people
are forced, by dint of your irrationality, to treat you better. Who am
I going to take from? The person who's extremely reasonable or the
person who has a hair-trigger temper? Well, I'm going to pick on a
reasonable person because the unreasonable person might do unreasonable
things. And this is faintly paradoxical, but often to be irrational, or
at least to have a reputation for mild irrationality, gives you an
edge.I've been wondering all day how this will end, and especially if anything will happen on/before the 11th of March when North Korea will apparently cancel cease-fire if the South don't stop doing drills.
It's just another layer of threat. Nothing substantial will happen in NK, they know the can only lose. My best guess is that it's all propaganda aimed at the people in NK to secure the future of the elite.
I think the relevant players (I mean, not the UN and their 'strong-worded letters') have decided it's time to call the bluff Doing a Nuclear test is one thing, mounting it on a rocket and sending it far away is another. I think they decided to stop this before it gets ugly.
North Korea should scare everyone. NK's only ally, China, has clearly stood alongside everyone else in the fricking world and proposed sanctions. That is like USA cutting off Isreal's aid - its huge.
(Although they may have given them the damn bombs in the first place)
No one is going to lob nuclear bombs back, but right now, any freighter leaving Pyongyang is going to be searched very very throughly. And I would move out of Seoul for a few days.