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DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

washingtonpost.com

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Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#11

Post by carlgreene »

xpe wrote: post #6

I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…

I think my concern here would be people weighting their ideas/opinions far too much on mathematical models that may, or may not represent the complex economic reality.

We already see this with people arguing with near 100% confidence of X happening because of Y and Z…in a vacuum.

I want to see something similar to what you’re asking, don’t get me wrong. But the underbelly of that is a broken clock being right twice a day and far too much weight and decision making being put into some model that doesn’t actually reflect reality

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#12

Post by whatever1 »

trescenzi wrote: post #7
xpe wrote: post #6

I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…

I mean there’s some fed ones. Two are - GDPNow if you want shorter term: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow - DSGE if you want longer term: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/dsge#/overview

Eia also publishes their models.

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#13

Post by mindcrime »

xpe wrote: post #6

I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…

I don't have any insights on specific models that are "out there", but I'll share one tidbit you might find of interest if you're not already familiar with it. Douglas Hubbard's "Applied Information Economics"[1] is a methodology that could probably be applied to doing what you're asking for. Is it the only such methodology? Almost certainly not. Is it the best? I really don't know, as I think the scope of what you're looking at goes a little beyond what Doug originally intended for AIE. But it could potentially still be applied there, I think.

[1]: https://hubbardresearch.com/about/applied-information-econom...

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#14

Post by jongjong »

Well of course they're going to hurt zombie companies, that's the whole point. That's literally why everyone voted for Elon Musk's DOGE.

Every company is another company's competitor and it's not fair that some companies have to compete against other companies whose profit margins are padded by taxpayer dollars... To some degree it's like being forced to subsidize one's own competitor.

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#15

Post by xyst »

xpe wrote: post #6

I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…

> predictive economic models

Not possible with this neoclassical economy we live in. It’s an ongoing grift that has been ongoing for _decades_ which has allowed for irrational thinking to prevail, for wealth and success to be focused into a select group, and for multibillion dollar corporations to be bailed out when their own decisions drive the company to the ground. Privatize the profits, socialize the losses.

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#16

Post by no_wizard »

voidfunc wrote: post #5
downrightmike wrote: post #3

Nothing they are doing is good for business. All will suffer. Think the Military Industrial Complex can't run when agencies, the military and our allies won't be able to buy our munitions/platforms? Nope, and private business won't need it unless they can offload on to local governments at less than cost, and cities will be broke without federal funds backing them up.

It's pretty clear the obvious objective is to cripple the economy and buy up the losers for pennies on the dollar then also use government money as the carrot to compel surviving companies and local governments to adopt policies that are favorable to administration insiders. The new game is how much dick can you suck so someone in power smiles upon you.

This is my assessment as well. Yes, all companies feel pain, but some can survivor years of pain compared to competitors, and couple that with price increases due to tariffs.

Then in 18-24 months when everyone has resigned themselves to the price increases and the politically connected buy up struggling businesses the tariffs come off.

At which point, the cost to the business is lowered but the price increases will more or less stay, and those that have consolidated power will be in prime position to remain dominate for some time, likely decades.

It’s a giant market manipulation experiment disguised as many other actions but will ultimately culminate in consolidations of power

Step II is going to be regulatory capture. I expect to start seeing this by summer or fall

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#17

Post by xpe »

carlgreene wrote: post #11
xpe wrote: post #6

I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…

I think my concern here would be people weighting their ideas/opinions far too much on mathematical models that may, or may not represent the complex economic reality. We already see this with people arguing with near 100% confidence of X happening because of Y and Z…in a vacuum. I want to see something similar to what you’re asking, don’t get me wrong. But the underbelly of that is a broken clock being right twice a…

The solution to a bad model is more models :). I'm joking but serious. "All models are wrong, but some are useful."

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#19

Post by xpe »

xyst wrote: post #15
xpe wrote: post #6

I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…

> predictive economic models Not possible with this neoclassical economy we live in. It’s an ongoing grift that has been ongoing for _decades_ which has allowed for irrational thinking to prevail, for wealth and success to be focused into a select group, and for multibillion dollar corporations to be bailed out when their own decisions drive the company to the ground. Privatize the profits, socialize the losses.

I get your point of view. But I'm intentionally trying to focus on prediction.

There are ways to track ownership of entities and relationships. There are ways to quantify how contracts are awarded, the results, and the impacts. These are complex models, but they can give insight into the dynamics.

Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors

#20

Post by exe34 »

jongjong wrote: post #14

Well of course they're going to hurt zombie companies, that's the whole point. That's literally why everyone voted for Elon Musk's DOGE. Every company is another company's competitor and it's not fair that some companies have to compete against other companies whose profit margins are padded by taxpayer dollars... To some degree it's like being forced to subsidize one's own competitor.

so space x and Tesla are going to part with enough shares to pay back all the money they got from the public (and the growth that said money funded)?
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