DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
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DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
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Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#2Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#3Nothing they are doing is good for business. All will suffer. Think the Military Industrial Complex can't run when agencies, the military and our allies won't be able to buy our munitions/platforms? Nope, and private business won't need it unless they can offload on to local governments at less than cost, and cities will be broke without federal funds backing them up.
Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#4Nothing they are doing is good for business. All will suffer. Think the Military Industrial Complex can't run when agencies, the military and our allies won't be able to buy our munitions/platforms? Nope, and private business won't need it unless they can offload on to local governments at less than cost, and cities will be broke without federal funds backing them up.
Most of the bombs/munitions the US drops is from the perspective of the American worker the equivalent of digging holes in the desert.
The way to have more goods and services is to make more goods and services. Releasing people from digging holes allows us to create more wealth.
Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#5Nothing they are doing is good for business. All will suffer. Think the Military Industrial Complex can't run when agencies, the military and our allies won't be able to buy our munitions/platforms? Nope, and private business won't need it unless they can offload on to local governments at less than cost, and cities will be broke without federal funds backing them up.
It's pretty clear the obvious objective is to cripple the economy and buy up the losers for pennies on the dollar then also use government money as the carrot to compel surviving companies and local governments to adopt policies that are favorable to administration insiders.
The new game is how much dick can you suck so someone in power smiles upon you.
Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#6I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation.
I know... I'm asking for too much... this is usually proprietary stuff, so people are reluctant to share. But I want to live in a world where sensible people can compare models of what might happen. We don't have to necessarily agree on the assumptions or results. But we could at least be open about why we predict various outcomes. That would be better foundation that how we do things now, which is really embarrassing for a world with our capabilities.
Eventually, I want to live in a world where we have sensible discussions about our predictions and about which outcomes are more and less favorable.
P.S. If you are building a product or startup doing this, let me know. Or let everyone know. I built a product in this general area many years ago, but I didn't find product-market fit. Anyhow, I just want modeling tools like this to exist; I don't care who makes them.
P.P.S. I'm very intentionally not bringing in my political philosophy nor level of personal concern here. To be open, I am personally affected, as are many of my friends, but I want to find some kind of common ground that doesn't make this about my particular take on the overall situation.
Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#7I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…
I mean there’s some fed ones. Two are
- GDPNow if you want shorter term: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
- DSGE if you want longer term: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/dsge#/overview
Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#8I'm looking for predictive economic models out in the open. I want to see the underlying assumptions and experiment. I'm not even picky about the kind of model: it could be a relatively simple linear regression model, a systems dynamics model, a complex simulation, or anything in-between. I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation. I know... I'm asking f…
> I just want models to a focal point of discussion rather than some poorly-explained textual interpretation.
Do we have any economic models which managed to predict any non-obvious, relevant things?
Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
#9Nothing they are doing is good for business. All will suffer. Think the Military Industrial Complex can't run when agencies, the military and our allies won't be able to buy our munitions/platforms? Nope, and private business won't need it unless they can offload on to local governments at less than cost, and cities will be broke without federal funds backing them up.
It depends on "good for who" and over what time scale.
My dominant model is this: the core of the Trump administration is most interested in remaining in power and building connections. So they do whatever works to garner favor. They are relatively unaware or unafraid of the gathering storm of legal pushback. I think they figure they can get away with a lot before it catches up to them, politically or legally. This includes taking actions that they know are illegal.
Bluntly, with their own admission, they are bringing a chainsaw to the status quo. Why? Probably because this builds power: others are beholden to them to build it back. I don't think there is much of a shared sense of "doing what is best" for the country. I view them as opportunists, hoping to ride Trump's popularity.
Around them is a coalition with a range of interests. Some are genuine believers that DOGE will bring greater long-term economic growth (i.e. GDP). Some are so ideological that no real-world scenario would prompt them to change their policy prescriptions. Some of the coalition actively wants to reduce separation of church and state. Some are willing to curtail freedom of the press.
It is a dangerous coalition because each part seems willing to let the other parts get what they want. They seem to fail to understand the importance of the rule of law and economic stability.
I wonder how many know that Silicon Valley wouldn't exist without government research. Have they studied history? I can't claim to peer into their brains. I am curious as to what various people on the inside think they are accomplishing.
It sure seems like a risky bet to ally with Trump; any allies better be ready to contort themselves to his various mercurial whims. Which parts of the coalition can get what they want and come out the other side in good shape? It seems to me they are burning the candle at both ends.
Up until now, I've been reluctantly tolerant (far from happy) with a manageable level of government inefficiency, military-industrial backscratching, political pork sharing, and insufferably inane politics -- because, put together, this seems to a relatively stable way of maintaining some semblance of a representative democracy, healthy economy, a strong entrepreneurial sector, strong national defense, and math/science research. But the current direction is far worse. I don't think economic chaos, massive privatization, blatant corruption, likely Constitutional crises, meddling with the free press, using government for political retribution of (institutions, universities, individuals), loss of confidence in SCOTUS, etc... is doing to lead the US in promising directions. A significant number of people and business are going to leave. We're losing national prestige. It is a net loss to America and the world. But a net gain to Trump and his circle, at least in the short-run.
Re: DOGE's government cuts may hurt business, companies warn investors
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