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Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

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Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#11

Post by lmz »

corimaith wrote: post #9
roenxi wrote: post #2

Will this attempt work out commercially? Maybe, maybe not. But more interesting here is the strategic situation beyond the currently understood tech. The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. There is a strategic need here to break the remaining Euro…

>The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. Sorry but this sounds more like propaganda. China also sees supply chains "as a vector to attack power centres in Asia", that's applicable to anyone and anywhere. I'm not sure why Asia is a singled out here,…

> They've already tried sanctioning Korea and Japan over petty issues like Fukushima water waste.

Well China wasn't the only one with concerns, but probably the only one with the balls to sanction: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/world/asia/korea-japan-fu... - and why shouldn't they?

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#13

Post by alephnerd »

cherryteastain wrote: post #7

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't t…

> Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door

Canon and Nikon don't need to be bleeding edge. Majority of the chip fabrication market is 20nm, 28nm, and 40nm along with analog chips (60nm+).

The sub-20nm chips will become more common as more and more fabs get turned on and EUV eventually gets commoditized, but the RoI isn't there yet for most electronics aside from high margins consumer electronics like GPUs, high end cellphones, etc.

> Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources

Both the Chinese (SMIC) and the Japanese (OIST) attempts don't have great yield rates (the OIST project above is barely 50% of ASML's and SMIC's is reported to be similar).

Both will crack it eventually, but the order book for ASML's High NA EUV (3nm and below) is entirely Intel, Samsung, and the American fabs for TSMC for the next 3-4 years so by the time a competitor is ASML comparable, a significant subset of high end US and SK fabs will have transitioned to 3nm.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#14

Post by zenapollo »

roenxi wrote: post #2

Will this attempt work out commercially? Maybe, maybe not. But more interesting here is the strategic situation beyond the currently understood tech. The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. There is a strategic need here to break the remaining Euro…

Fickle? It’s been Russia and China for like 100 years. I’m no expert but it might be due to crushing political oppression and aggressive empire building. Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan are all chip manufacturing power houses, and the only one not happy to see China blockaded is China. Though I’m sure they’re working on hacking into and stealing these new designs as we speak.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#15

Post by adrian_b »

mangecoeur wrote: post #5

They mention validation in software which suggests a hardware implementation is a way off with a lot of practical issues that might crop up on the way. So best of luck to them but i wouldn’t expect to see hit the market for quite a while - saying they are “on the edge of euv chip making” is very optimistic.

By far the easiest path for this technology to be used in practice would be to license it to ASML.

The older and cheaper models of the ASML EUV sources would be good enough for this system that needs a much smaller power for the EUV sources.

The European partners of ASML are the only companies that could manufacture at this time the optical system.

Nevertheless, it is likely that the patent owners would prefer to license it to Nikon, to create competition for ASML.

Nikon should be able to make the optical system, but this could need a few years of development, unless Nikon already has a secret internal research project for making EUV mirrors.

The most difficult problem remains the EUV source, even if a much simpler source than the current sources is good enough.

It seems very unlikely that ASML would be willing to sell EUV sources separately to Nikon, providing components for competing systems.

The only deal that seems possible would be if ASML accepted to sell some of their older models of EUV sources to Nikon, in exchange for receiving licenses for this new improved kind of EUV optical system, which will then be incorporated in all new EUV systems, regardless if they are made by ASML or Nikon.

This would reduce the dependence on ASML and its partners, but ASML would still completely control the market of EUV sources, even if not also the market of complete lithography systems, like it does now.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#16

Post by epoxia »

bradleyjg wrote: post #4
ksec wrote: post #3

A few points in terms of context. 1. The original paper in Japanese claim to use only 4 mirrors to achieve the same results. Although this story only mentions >the EUV equipment’s optical system is greatly simplified 1. Japan isn't new to lithography. Both Canon and Nikon are in the market as well and eventually gave on EUV research and focuses on DUV. 2. Power consumption is reduced by a factor of ten is extremely i…

with 30%+ of the raw cost of chip manufacturing goes to energy usage alone Is the marginal cost of production at all relevant compared to the upfront capital outlay?

You can get a loan to spread out payments, reducing operating costs would be similar to reducing those payments. It also impacts viability and resale in second hand markets.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#17

Post by Animats »

cherryteastain wrote: post #7

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't t…

It's interesting that the author's picture is with a linear accelerator. It's quite possible to use a linear accelerator to generate EUV to etch chips. It's been done as a test at SLAC.[1] But that approach was more expensive than AMSL's, since it needed a mile-long accelerator.

There was a startup in Fremont, Lyncean Technologies, that had a 10 watt EUV source based on a small synchrotron.[2][3] They supposedly got to 10 watts. But that was too weak for EUV semiconductor work. They struggled for years to find a market, and went bankrupt in 2022. Here's the video of the equipment auction.[4] If, with this new optical system, only 20 watts are needed, that technology is worth reviving.

Something YC might be interested in.

An accelerator source is much cleaner than the laser tin-zapping thing AMSL uses. It's amazing that works as a commercial product.

[1] https://euvlsymposium.lbl.gov/pdf/2014/39af88b9d637418d86614...

[2] https://web.archive.org/web/20220119174924/https://lynceante...

[3] https://www.euvlitho.com/2017/P17.pdf

[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5eGyeNgCSY

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#18

Post by adrian_b »

alephnerd wrote: post #12

The actual paper [0] The yield rate is unimpressive (100 wafers/hr) compared to existing ASML EUV lithography machines (170-200/hr) or even DUV lithography (300/hr). [0] - https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.11717

The yield rate by itself is not very relevant.

It also matters which are the energy and materials consumption, the occupied floor area and the acquisition and maintenance prices associated with that yield.

When all those are small enough, it may be worthwhile to replace a big and expensive fast machine with many smaller and cheaper slow machines.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#19

Post by alephnerd »

adrian_b wrote: post #18
alephnerd wrote: post #12

The actual paper [0] The yield rate is unimpressive (100 wafers/hr) compared to existing ASML EUV lithography machines (170-200/hr) or even DUV lithography (300/hr). [0] - https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.11717

The yield rate by itself is not very relevant. It also matters which are the energy and materials consumption, the occupied floor area and the acquisition and maintenance prices associated with that yield. When all those are small enough, it may be worthwhile to replace a big and expensive fast machine with many smaller and cheaper slow machines.

Fair point!

That said, 10% reduction in power is decent along with the reduction in mirrors, but it would still take some effort for an attempt like this to be cost competitive compared to licensing from ASML.

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