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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#11

Post by 3dbrows »

JetSetWilly wrote: post #3
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Probably schools and universities being closed. I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too. So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the…

The staggered school return times you mention could be one factor (as could better weather resulting in outdoor socialising instead of indoor). The effect when schools return (~2 weeks from now in Scotland) might be muted however as hundreds of thousands more vaccinations will have been done in the parent-age population. In Scotland, for example, over 90% of adults have received the first dose, and 72% the second (implying that ~18% are in the waiting period for the 2nd). Perhaps we should expect to see a spike in cases in children, but not so much among their parents.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#12

Post by shawabawa3 »

jjgreen wrote: post #4
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

The drop actually started before freedom day. There's usually about a 2 week period between "cause" and "effect" in terms of cases anyway.

It's much more likely to have peaked because of Euro finals on 11th July and school holidays starting on 15th July

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#13

Post by monooso »

The ONS regularly tests a random selection of people. Their results typically trail the daily infection numbers by two weeks.

Notably, the most recent ONS samples demonstrated a sharp rise in cases. The suggestion is that cases are actually surging, but most are now either asymptomatic or at least very mild, and thus not reported.

I guess we'll find out shortly whether that's the case.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#14

Post by jjgreen »

lumost wrote: post #6
jjgreen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

There are many coincidences and spurious correlations in the world. It's informative to propose a falsifiable mechanism behind a correlation which can be tested independently. I could reframe your hypothesis in a falsifiable way such as "perhaps ending lockdowns in the UK caused individuals to spend more time outdoors or in open air restaurants rather than smaller closed doors activities such as dinner parties", or "…

I make no hypothesis, simply note the order in which things happened (in England at least) as requested by the parent.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#15

Post by mixedmath »

I read this and think it's well written. I see it's published in The Intelligencer, which is apparently an offshoot of NYMagazine. I'm not particularly familiar with either, but I hadn't realized that news-type things would be discussed in them.

Does anyone here have anything to say about their quality or their relevance to people who don't live in NY?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#16

Post by GuB-42 »

jjgreen wrote: post #4
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

It has to be a coincidence. It happened almost the exact day, maybe even a little earlier.

It should take about a week to start seeing the effect of a change in policy. From incubation time to testing to results. Usually, we count two weeks to be sure.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#17

Post by shawabawa3 »

gsnedders wrote: post #8
JetSetWilly wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably schools and universities being closed. I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too. So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the…

Not sure it's quite this simple; look at the overall case by specimen and age demographics graphs on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=natio... (England only, because the data for rUK isn't available). Note the peak is around a week _prior_ the end of the school term in England (23 July), and this is true across basically all age groups.

The Euro finals were on 11th July and for a lot of schools the holidays started on the 15th July

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#18

Post by thinkingemote »

GuB-42 wrote: post #16
jjgreen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

It has to be a coincidence. It happened almost the exact day, maybe even a little earlier. It should take about a week to start seeing the effect of a change in policy. From incubation time to testing to results. Usually, we count two weeks to be sure.

The day restrictions were lifted was itself postponed from the previous month. Modelling was used to predict the day.

It could be coincidence but this date was planned and intentional.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#19

Post by drcongo »

gsnedders wrote: post #8
JetSetWilly wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably schools and universities being closed. I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too. So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the…

Not sure it's quite this simple; look at the overall case by specimen and age demographics graphs on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=natio... (England only, because the data for rUK isn't available). Note the peak is around a week _prior_ the end of the school term in England (23 July), and this is true across basically all age groups.

Most of England's private schools broke up one week prior to the state schools.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#20

Post by 0xTJ »

This gives me hope for Canada, where I am, won't face too many issues even as we slowly start to tick up from the bottom since major reopening happened, allowing indoor dining etc.

In the last week, we've passed the UK in number of fully vaccinated people, but that's going to be slowing down as we start running of people who got their first dose during the big surge in shots here. Unfortunately, at 64% of the total population getting a first dose, the steep straight line in first doses suddenly curved to a much shallower straight line, to a rate similar to the current UK and US ones.

I find the Our World In Data Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) data (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) very interesting.

It doesn't help that Alberta, our country's Texas, has decided to fully open everything and get rid of their requirements. Starting 2 weeks from now, you won't even have to self-isolate if you test positive for COVID-19.

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