The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
1–10 of 465 posts
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#2Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#3Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
Probably schools and universities being closed.
I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too.
So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the virus burns through the young, unvaccinated population.
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#4Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#5Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
Lots of people either being vaccinated or infected seems like it would play a big role.
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#6Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.
There are many coincidences and spurious correlations in the world. It's informative to propose a falsifiable mechanism behind a correlation which can be tested independently.
I could reframe your hypothesis in a falsifiable way such as "perhaps ending lockdowns in the UK caused individuals to spend more time outdoors or in open air restaurants rather than smaller closed doors activities such as dinner parties", or "perhaps ending lockdowns in the UK caused people to spend more time in other locations rather than large shared ventilation apartment complexes".
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#7[deleted]
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#8Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
Probably schools and universities being closed. I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too. So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the…
Not sure it's quite this simple; look at the overall case by specimen and age demographics graphs on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=natio... (England only, because the data for rUK isn't available).
Note the peak is around a week _prior_ the end of the school term in England (23 July), and this is true across basically all age groups.
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#9Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
Probably schools and universities being closed. I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too. So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the…
But if it rose earlier and fell earlier, the simplest explanation is simply that the course of the disease was... earlier there, isn't it?
Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
#10Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?
Choose your own adventure, coronavirus edition.
You have coronavirus symptoms. During the middle of a surge in cases, the government has announced that all coronavirus restrictions have ended and everybody can go back to normal. The vast majority of older and vulnerable people have been fully vaccinated.
Do you:
A: get a test and risk having to isolate
B: not get a test and live your life like normal as the government said you should