Assuming he’s right, what do I do about it? Buy gold? Buy BTC? Buy foreign equities?
Yeah same here. I figure just hope for the best.
The US government is inviting inflation
11–20 of 118 posts
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#12Eh. Commercial real estate is still down from a year ago.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#13After following Peter Schiff for over a decade, and him being thoroughly wrong about inflation after 2008, I can't help but think "this time is different". Before 2020 all money printing went to banks, which increased the wealth of the 1% and increased asset prices, but it didn't create inflation. But now, we have actual helicopter money. And this time I believe Peter when he says, once you start with stimulus cheque…
A powerful argument against UBI.
So, bailing out the rich is good, feeding the poor causes an inflation crash.
What a world we live in.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#14We heard the same thing after the post 2008 stimulus too.
It seems some of the very obvious predictions aren't so easy anymore.
I understand where folks are coming from generally with these predictions, and I don't necessarily disagree with a lot of their ideas..... but the outcomes just don't seem to follow.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#15After following Peter Schiff for over a decade, and him being thoroughly wrong about inflation after 2008, I can't help but think "this time is different". Before 2020 all money printing went to banks, which increased the wealth of the 1% and increased asset prices, but it didn't create inflation. But now, we have actual helicopter money. And this time I believe Peter when he says, once you start with stimulus cheque…
I listened to what Schiff had to say in 2008, but the same talking point of how he was right became tiring quick. Eventually years later I realized he basically always has the same forecast of impending doom, that just happened to be correct once. So he's a bit of a broken clock is correct twice a day person.
He is peddling gold, doom scares are good for his business
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#1620% of all dollars were created in 2020. The only thing preventing that from translating into the broader price level is that money velocity collapsed due to the Covid shutdowns. Instead most of that has channeled into financial and property asset prices.
Once velocity increases, as is the plan if you assume 2021 is the year we "recover" from Covid restrictions, the Fed will have a choice between inflation and deflating the money supply (eg by selling a huge portion of their accumulated financial assets). The latter implies a rise in interest rates that harms economic recovery and government borrowing costs, potentially reducing available fiscal stimulus.
I would like to read an analysis of how they plan on veeeery carefully extricating themselves from this situation but as far as I can tell the strategy is to wing it.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#17Assuming he’s right, what do I do about it? Buy gold? Buy BTC? Buy foreign equities?
Voting up because this is the question we should be exploring. If you believe the thesis that inflation is here or due soon (I do) then what?
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#18After following Peter Schiff for over a decade, and him being thoroughly wrong about inflation after 2008, I can't help but think "this time is different". Before 2020 all money printing went to banks, which increased the wealth of the 1% and increased asset prices, but it didn't create inflation. But now, we have actual helicopter money. And this time I believe Peter when he says, once you start with stimulus cheque…
I highly recommend analysis by Lyn Alden. She looks at the situation with an engineer's approach without pushing any political agenda. She looks at several options and provides the justification that "this time is different"; also lists other potential scenarios that could happen and things to look for to determine which one is developing.
https://www.lynalden.com/money-printing/ is a recent public article. She has a couple of more recent updates in her premium research section, but the main thesis stayed the same.
EDIT: Her more recent public article on the subject: https://www.lynalden.com/february-2021-newsletter/
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#19Don't forget Weimar Germany was under the thumb of the truly punitive economic features of the Treaty of Versailles. French PM Clemenceau insisted on punishing Germany for starting WW1. The Marshall Plan after WW2 was a largely successful effort to avoid repeating that, for the west anyway.
John Maynard Keynes more-or-less predicted the Weimar meltdown in his 1920 book The Economic Consequences of the Peace. https://www.worldcat.org/title/economic-consequences-of-the-... Still worth reading.
Since Weimar the western world has developed various negative-feedback loops (using the lingo of control theory) to interrupt hyperinflation. Some of that comes from Keynes's own work. Those loops are big and clunky, but so far they work. The US Federal Reserve manages many of those loops, and has the dual mission of keeping inflation low and employment high.
It might be a good idea to learn more about all this before investing your kids' college money according to this hyperinflation fear.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#20Assuming he’s right, what do I do about it? Buy gold? Buy BTC? Buy foreign equities?
Guns.