The US government is inviting inflation
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The US government is inviting inflation
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Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#2After following Peter Schiff for over a decade, and him being thoroughly wrong about inflation after 2008, I can't help but think "this time is different".
Before 2020 all money printing went to banks, which increased the wealth of the 1% and increased asset prices, but it didn't create inflation. But now, we have actual helicopter money. And this time I believe Peter when he says, once you start with stimulus cheques, you can't stop. This will go on and on. And it will create inflation.
I also think the fact that everyone is locked up right now has mitigated the effect a bit. But once everyone suddenly starts spending after a year and a half of lockups, suddenly there won't be enough product to go around.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#3After following Peter Schiff for over a decade, and him being thoroughly wrong about inflation after 2008, I can't help but think "this time is different". Before 2020 all money printing went to banks, which increased the wealth of the 1% and increased asset prices, but it didn't create inflation. But now, we have actual helicopter money. And this time I believe Peter when he says, once you start with stimulus cheque…
A powerful argument against UBI.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#4While I"m sympathetic to his worries, I can't help but wonder if Michael Burry is actually just a one hit wonder. Granted, I'm not even a one hit wonder so he's still one up on me. But still. I'm not sure his conclusions should be taken any more seriously than anyone else.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#5Assuming he’s right, what do I do about it? Buy gold? Buy BTC? Buy foreign equities?
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#6While I"m sympathetic to his worries, I can't help but wonder if Michael Burry is actually just a one hit wonder. Granted, I'm not even a one hit wonder so he's still one up on me. But still. I'm not sure his conclusions should be taken any more seriously than anyone else.
He bought GME in 2019, and made a couple hundred million during the frenzy.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-in...
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#7Inflation is already happening, that is why housing and equities are so high.
It isn’t happening equally amongst the basket of commodities that one can purchase, but it is happening in aggregate.
This is actually a feature of our currency system. If inflation didn’t happen, everyone would hold back spending until the next year; this is what caused the great depression.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#8After following Peter Schiff for over a decade, and him being thoroughly wrong about inflation after 2008, I can't help but think "this time is different". Before 2020 all money printing went to banks, which increased the wealth of the 1% and increased asset prices, but it didn't create inflation. But now, we have actual helicopter money. And this time I believe Peter when he says, once you start with stimulus cheque…
> But once everyone suddenly starts spending after a year and a half of lockups, suddenly there won't be enough product to go around.
People in need are already spending it to survive or to pay up debts they had to take on due to dysfunctional / non-existing social security networks. And even when the lockups eventually expire, many won't immediately splurge - because the next lockdown is only one mutation away.
For what it's worth I'd guess most of the helicopter money ends up at banks eventually by mortgage payments and student loan repayments.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#9While I"m sympathetic to his worries, I can't help but wonder if Michael Burry is actually just a one hit wonder. Granted, I'm not even a one hit wonder so he's still one up on me. But still. I'm not sure his conclusions should be taken any more seriously than anyone else.
He's at a minimum a two hit wonder so far:
1. Predicted housing bubble crash and shorted it
2. Publicly took a large stake in Gamestop over a year ago, putting something like 20-30% of his portfolio in it.
Re: The US government is inviting inflation
#10After following Peter Schiff for over a decade, and him being thoroughly wrong about inflation after 2008, I can't help but think "this time is different". Before 2020 all money printing went to banks, which increased the wealth of the 1% and increased asset prices, but it didn't create inflation. But now, we have actual helicopter money. And this time I believe Peter when he says, once you start with stimulus cheque…
I listened to what Schiff had to say in 2008, but the same talking point of how he was right became tiring quick. Eventually years later I realized he basically always has the same forecast of impending doom, that just happened to be correct once. So he's a bit of a broken clock is correct twice a day person.