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New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

bbc.com

11–20 of 280 posts

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#11
post #6
post #2

Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?

Yes variants occur all the time but they don't tend to become dominant. This variant went from 30% of all infections in November to 60% three weeks later. In order for a given variant to supplant all the others and become dominant it must have some characteristics that make it more transmissible. That is why they are particularly worried about this variant.

Could it still be that this variant is as infectious as others, but just happens to be the dominant one in the regions where the virus circulates the most, for reasons that have nothing to do with the genetics of the virus?

London and the South East are some of the densest populated areas in the UK, and one could expect exponential growth of infections there while other less populated areas could manage to keep their Rt around or bellow zero. If this strain was more prevalent in these regions, you would also see it taking a larger share of the infections nationwide.

However, the precautionary principle has been the keystone of good handling in the pandemic, so they are right to apply precautionary measures before it's too late. We will learn more about this strain in the next few weeks.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#12
post #2

Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?

As far as I understand, that is what happened with previous concerns about mutated strains. In the end they turned out to be no different than the wildtype, and greate distribution was simply because those strains were present in populations that caused more spreading.

There is not enough data right now to be sure whether this new strain is more infectious or not, but from what I read there are a few more reasons to be concerned this time compared to the previous times when mutated strains were reported.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#13
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes variants occur all the time but they don't tend to become dominant. This variant went from 30% of all infections in November to 60% three weeks later. In order for a given variant to supplant all the others and become dominant it must have some characteristics that make it more transmissible. That is why they are particularly worried about this variant.

Could it still be that this variant is as infectious as others, but just happens to be the dominant one in the regions where the virus circulates the most, for reasons that have nothing to do with the genetics of the virus? London and the South East are some of the densest populated areas in the UK, and one could expect exponential growth of infections there while other less populated areas could manage to keep their…

[deleted]

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#14
post #2

Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?

AFAIK, this strand is different because of the number of mutations. See figure 2 here https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisati...

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#15
post #3

There's so many questions that this raises. - Is it more infectious or just bypasses current immunities? - Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? - Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing? - Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october... seems like it's probably everywhere by now

It seems the answer is that we don't know if it's spread yet. To quote the ECDC's briefing, "However, most EU/EEA countries sequence much smaller proportions of virus isolates than the UK, so ongoing circulation of this variant outside of the UK cannot be excluded". https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/SAR...

Basically, the UK is just better set up to detect variants like this than a lot of other countries. The other possibility is that even if this variant hasn't spread yet, there are other variants out there with similar properties that just haven't been detected due to the lack of widespread RNA sequencing. South Africa apparently has one that's similar but unrelated.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#16
Ewan Birney (deputy directory of EMBL European Molecular Biology Laboratory)'s Twitter is a really good source of first class scientific information on this.

You need to scroll back about 2 days to get the latest info (and he refers to the Twitter accounts of others in the field who can give more information).

His Twitter profile is @ https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/

(Ewan is awesome - he is also (co)director of EMBL-EBI European Bioinformatics Institute, and I had the honour (as a Computer Scientist) of working there for nine years)

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#18
There's been a certain amount of public arguments between the government in the UK (yay Christmas) and scientists (boo Christmas). I really hope that this is not a tactical exaggeration used by the latter to get their way that's got way out of hand ...

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#19
post #3

There's so many questions that this raises. - Is it more infectious or just bypasses current immunities? - Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? - Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing? - Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october... seems like it's probably everywhere by now

Yes, it's in other countries too eg Australia and Netherlands.

Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?

#20
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? It has been around since September - if vaccines were voided it would have shown up in trials. It seems the human immune system is pretty smart and manufactures many different antibodies against many different sites on the spike protein. So even if some parts of the spike protein mutate, you still have antibodies that will do the job. - Is it less lethal? Could it crea…

> It has been around since September - if vaccines were voided it would have shown up in trials. The variant didn't reach a significant proportion of infections until November. Evaluation of the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine was done in July and August. We don't have data to understand how effective the Pfizer vaccine is against this variant yet.

This should be the official position when communicating this information. There simply is not enough data at this point.

I was really shocked to read German Minister statements saying the vacine is still effective for this variant. Sure theoretical the spike is majority unchanged but there is no evidence or data for a government official to make such an absolute statement.

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