New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
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Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#2Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#3There's so many questions that this raises.
- Is it more infectious or just bypasses current immunities?
- Will the vaccines basically be voided by this?
- Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing?
- Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october... seems like it's probably everywhere by now
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#4There's so many questions that this raises. - Is it more infectious or just bypasses current immunities? - Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? - Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing? - Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october... seems like it's probably everywhere by now
No answers on most of those Qs, but the messaging on (2) "Will the vaccines basically be voided by this?" is that no, vaccines should still be effective.
I'm not sure how they can no that without restarting extensive trials, but as a sibling commenter points out, viruses mutate constantly so I guess dealing with variants is pretty common when it comes to vaccination.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#5There's so many questions that this raises. - Is it more infectious or just bypasses current immunities? - Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? - Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing? - Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october... seems like it's probably everywhere by now
> Will the vaccines basically be voided by this?
It has been around since September - if vaccines were voided it would have shown up in trials. It seems the human immune system is pretty smart and manufactures many different antibodies against many different sites on the spike protein. So even if some parts of the spike protein mutate, you still have antibodies that will do the job.
- Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing?
It might be - it carries one mutation (a deletion) on a part of the genome that helps it evade the host immune system - but more data is needed. If it was less lethal that is a mechanism that can help it spread - people are asymptomatic for longer, or feel better so are out and about instead of in their bed. But although I have seen rumours on this there's nothing definite and no data.
- Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october...
It has been detected in Denmark as well. The UK - especially obviously London where it is prevalent - is highly globally connected. This variant will be everywhere in the world now in small amounts and if it does spread better it is just a matter of time. The UK does a LOT of genome sequencing compares to most countries so it is well equipped to detect the emergence of new strains and their spread.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#6Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?
Yes variants occur all the time but they don't tend to become dominant. This variant went from 30% of all infections in November to 60% three weeks later. In order for a given variant to supplant all the others and become dominant it must have some characteristics that make it more transmissible. That is why they are particularly worried about this variant.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#7Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?
Also, the UK seems to do way more sequencing of the virus than any other country, so one would expect such cherry picking to actually happen in the UK.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#8There's so many questions that this raises. - Is it more infectious or just bypasses current immunities? - Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? - Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing? - Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october... seems like it's probably everywhere by now
> Will the vaccines basically be voided by this? It has been around since September - if vaccines were voided it would have shown up in trials. It seems the human immune system is pretty smart and manufactures many different antibodies against many different sites on the spike protein. So even if some parts of the spike protein mutate, you still have antibodies that will do the job. - Is it less lethal? Could it crea…
> It has been around since September - if vaccines were voided it would have shown up in trials.
The variant didn't reach a significant proportion of infections until November. Evaluation of the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine was done in July and August. We don't have data to understand how effective the Pfizer vaccine is against this variant yet.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#9Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?
Not really. Thousands of variations have ben sequenced, the notable thing here is the (potentially) faster spread.
Re: New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
#10Wouldn't there be an element of cherry picking to this whole variant story? Like, don't viruses mutate constantly, we just don't analyze them in a disciplined manner most of the time, so if you start doing that you're bound to find something like this, but so would anyone else conducting a similar analysis anywhere else and at any other point in the pandemic?
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