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Advances in Weather Prediction

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Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#11

Post by mannykannot »

mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

I do a number of outdoor activities and I think forecasting has become very reliable, with the caveat that precise precipitation amounts and timing can vary over a short distance. If you are concerned about rain in the next couple of hours, take a look at the radar maps, and see if the situation is shaping up as predicted.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#12

Post by mehrdadn »

jetrink wrote: post #6
mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

I pay close attention to precipitation forecasts due to the nature of my job. In the midwest, National Weather Service forecasts up to seven days out are reliable and useful. If the NWS says there will be a rainstorm in a week, there usually is one and vice versa. The quantitative aspect of the forecasts is less accurate. It is common to see a small storm become a large one or for a scary storm to fizzle. This is the…

Oh interesting! Thanks for sharing that.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#13

Post by mehrdadn »

zdragnar wrote: post #9
mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

Upper midwest here. Hourly predictions are accurate more often than not, and a few days out is chancey. Big storms are often exaggerated, though I suspect that's because the risk of flooding, ice and other hazardous travel conditions are serious enough to be overly cautious. We had predictions for major snowfalls a few times, and every time was completely overblown, and then one hit exactly as predicted. Definitely g…

Ahh yeah, you guys probably get a lot more extremes. :)

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#14

Post by Donald »

mehrdadn wrote: post #10
minimalist wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are in the United States, you may be interested in the scientific forecaster discussions produced by your local NWS office. They provide more insight into forecast confidence and general regional dynamics. Theyre produced several times a day and are often quite fun to read. Its amazing how far we have come in weather prediction. A few decades ago, 5-day forecasts did not exist and now we get 10-day forecasts t…

Interesting... do you see the NWS forecasts being more accurate then Weather.com/Weather Underground? It always felt to me like the former was (basically/effectively) a low-pass-filtered version of the latter, not actually any more accurate, but I have't really compared them that carefully.

The NWS produces expert commentary (aka "forecaster's discussion") that can explain the deviations from forecasted weather. For example, there is a stalled weak cold front over the US right now. Many areas are getting variants of "Though not currently included in our forecast, very minor rain chances could return on Wednesday with models indicating some eastward movement of the ridge and an increase in PWAT values" based on the underlying uncertainty behind where exactly this frontal system will stall out.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#15

Post by mehrdadn »

mannykannot wrote: post #11
mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

I do a number of outdoor activities and I think forecasting has become very reliable, with the caveat that precise precipitation amounts and timing can vary over a short distance. If you are concerned about rain in the next couple of hours, take a look at the radar maps, and see if the situation is shaping up as predicted.

Yeah the amount is secondary. I don't really have a good feel for 0.01 inches vs. 0.1 inches anyway (both seem small and then I constantly get surprised). Trouble is when they literally say no chance of rain and then I get soaked, or when they say it'll rain and there's not a single drop.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#16

Post by maxerickson »

minimalist wrote: post #7
mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

If you are in the United States, you may be interested in the scientific forecaster discussions produced by your local NWS office. They provide more insight into forecast confidence and general regional dynamics. Theyre produced several times a day and are often quite fun to read. Its amazing how far we have come in weather prediction. A few decades ago, 5-day forecasts did not exist and now we get 10-day forecasts t…

Corruption, or so.

There was almost legislation to stop them from distributing data to the public directly, because then companies can make more money doing it.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#17

Post by CarVac »

mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

If you look at the models themselves you can look several days out and get an idea of what could happen.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

Select GFS (Global Forecasting System, the usual model) and NAMER (North America), then Precip P06 (six-hour precipitation accumulation), and then Loop All.

Over time, you learn the behavior of the models; for example the GFS's longer-range predictions tend to overestimate peak rainfall from super heavy storms (it'll predict three inches and we'll get one).

It's not as convenient as Wunderground but it's data straight from the source.

Other occasionally useful models are the NAM (shorter range and limited to North America) and the HRRR (high time resolution but very short range).

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#18

Post by ravedave5 »

mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

Besides microclimites, which are a whole other discussion, predictions vary per service. It looks like AccuWeather has a 2% better rating for San Francisco, it's not much but it's something. https://www.forecastadvisor.com/California/SanFrancisco/9412...

but compared to a smaller city also with microclimates on a large body of water the prediction for San Fran is 15% better - https://www.forecastadvisor.com/Minnesota/Duluth/55811/

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#19

Post by freehunter »

ravedave5 wrote: post #18
mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

Besides microclimites, which are a whole other discussion, predictions vary per service. It looks like AccuWeather has a 2% better rating for San Francisco, it's not much but it's something. https://www.forecastadvisor.com/California/SanFrancisco/9412... but compared to a smaller city also with microclimates on a large body of water the prediction for San Fran is 15% better - https://www.forecastadvisor.com/Minnesota…

That's the first time I've seen that site, and for my city it's kind of frustrating if it's true. The Weather Channel rates the best (by far) compared to my preferred app, but I find The Weather Channel app to be an awful user experience for how I want to see weather presented to me.

Re: Advances in Weather Prediction

#20

Post by feedbeef »

minimalist wrote: post #7
mehrdadn wrote: post #3

How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…

If you are in the United States, you may be interested in the scientific forecaster discussions produced by your local NWS office. They provide more insight into forecast confidence and general regional dynamics. Theyre produced several times a day and are often quite fun to read. Its amazing how far we have come in weather prediction. A few decades ago, 5-day forecasts did not exist and now we get 10-day forecasts t…

Also check out IEMBot for live (immediate) access to raw NWS products [1]. It should be noted that the scientific discussions are exactly that - while quite valuable, it can take some effort to become familiar with the abbreviations and raw weather science.

1. https://weather.im/iembot/

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