Advances in Weather Prediction
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Advances in Weather Prediction
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Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#2It's kinda cool that we can predict in enough time to save lives and equipment. If our brains or metabolism had been slower, then this might not be the case, even after we've developed the mathematical theories that we have now.
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#3How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getting soaked while walking outside, and I checked the current conditions and was informed it is in fact not raining and there is no upcoming rain either. These were despite the facts that the weather stations were < 1 mile away for me and the conditions persisted for a fair bit (i.e. it wasn't just a random 2-minute shower).
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#4How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…
Parts of the Bay Area are pretty famous for having microclimates. I wouldn’t really use traditional weather reports for determining if it’s currently raining right here, but I find them accurate enough for determining if I need to carry my rain jacket or umbrella for the day.
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#5How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…
Similar experience here in South Florida, the two weather apps I am currently using not always agree on the next day weather and often are wrong on the same day weather forecast. It seems to me that there was better accuracy a couple of years ago and somehow they have degraded. I am puzzled :/
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#6How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…
I pay close attention to precipitation forecasts due to the nature of my job. In the midwest, National Weather Service forecasts up to seven days out are reliable and useful. If the NWS says there will be a rainstorm in a week, there usually is one and vice versa. The quantitative aspect of the forecasts is less accurate. It is common to see a small storm become a large one or for a scary storm to fizzle.
This is the page that I check every morning: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#7How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…
If you are in the United States, you may be interested in the scientific forecaster discussions produced by your local NWS office. They provide more insight into forecast confidence and general regional dynamics. Theyre produced several times a day and are often quite fun to read.
Its amazing how far we have come in weather prediction. A few decades ago, 5-day forecasts did not exist and now we get 10-day forecasts that are reliable enough that we take it for granted.
In my experience, nothing beats getting the forecast straight from the horses mouth (NWS that is). Some companies are notorious for producing 30+ day forecasts, which cant have any meaningful levels of skill.
I never understood why NOAA/NWS didnt just create their own mobile app. I use Wx[0], which parses NWS data directly and can be found on f-droid.
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#8How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…
Parts of the Bay Area are pretty famous for having microclimates. I wouldn’t really use traditional weather reports for determining if it’s currently raining right here, but I find them accurate enough for determining if I need to carry my rain jacket or umbrella for the day.
This wasn't a microclimate issue. I'm pretty darn sure the conditions at the station simply could not have been so radically different. And re: forecasts, if I had just looked at the weather to see if I needed an umbrella that evening I would've concluded "yes" if I had looked at 2pm and "no" if I looked at 3pm. Sometimes they do get it right, but other times they're just literally useless.
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#9How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…
Upper midwest here. Hourly predictions are accurate more often than not, and a few days out is chancey.
Big storms are often exaggerated, though I suspect that's because the risk of flooding, ice and other hazardous travel conditions are serious enough to be overly cautious.
We had predictions for major snowfalls a few times, and every time was completely overblown, and then one hit exactly as predicted. Definitely glad I wasn't on the road that evening.
Re: Advances in Weather Prediction
#10How good is weather prediction for other people? Is it actually accurate for you? Are even the current conditions accurate for you? I use Weather Underground, and a few weeks ago in the Bay, here are just a couple of the things I remember observing (out of the many wrong predictions): (1) One afternoon I was told there would be rain in 5-6 hours, then a couple hours I was told there would be none. (2) I started getti…
If you are in the United States, you may be interested in the scientific forecaster discussions produced by your local NWS office. They provide more insight into forecast confidence and general regional dynamics. Theyre produced several times a day and are often quite fun to read. Its amazing how far we have come in weather prediction. A few decades ago, 5-day forecasts did not exist and now we get 10-day forecasts t…
Interesting... do you see the NWS forecasts being more accurate then Weather.com/Weather Underground? It always felt to me like the former was (basically/effectively) a low-pass-filtered version of the latter, not actually any more accurate, but I have't really compared them that carefully.