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After the end of the startup era

techcrunch.com

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Re: After the end of the startup era

#11

Post by baxman22 »

I agree with this premise. I knew it was over about 2 years ago when I noticed that about half of new startups were built to sell to other startups, or to serve the existing startup market in someway. That’s a sign of saturation.

Another paradigm shift in media (like recorded sound, recorded video, radio, tv, computing, web, and mobile) is what’s needed to produce another startup boom. It all comes down to media—�—the media is the message.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#13

Post by Alex3917 »

skrebbel wrote: post #4

NYC-based angel investor Jerry Neumann calls this the "deployment age" and has a very nice, and somewhat prescient, write-up about it: http://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html

He's just quoting Carlotta Perez. But he doesn't get it quite right, we're in the installation phase for some technologies and the deployment phase for others.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#15

Post by peter303 »

I remember the beginning of the startup era. When Bill Gate and Steve Jobs started their companies in 1976, rhere were very few venture capital firms and the stepped procedure of investment you see today. A company had to borrow from more conventional banks and/or grow their own capital from revenues. A big help was when President Carter lowered capital gains tax in 1977. That stimulated investment firms.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#16

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

The evidence is likely in the data housed by Y Combinator, 500 Startups, and others in their market. Chart the statistical mean valuation of each cohort by year since graduation and see if that mean is changing. If Evans is correct, the mean should be declining for each successive cohort.

Alternatively, since the number of funded startups seems to be increasing, you may prefer to look at total valuation over time since graduation. Even if the mean is decreasing, the total number of 'successful' startups may be increasing and no 'end' is signaled.

I'm not convinced that 'there are no good startup ideas left in this technology era' because the big winners are all black swans. By definition, they defy conventional wisdom.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#17

Post by Liron »

I'm not sure comparing the YC batches is convincing evidence. Off the top of my head, Coinbase (YC S12) is the 2017 analogue of a company that is "poised to dominate its industry", already valued at $1B+.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#18

Post by dirtyaura »

I think there is a constant shift towards different kind of startups, as one field saturates and big players emerge. Currently the shift has been from "easy" towards "harder". in the early 2010s there was a shift from viral consumer services and apps towards b2b services and Uber-style marketplaces, which both are arguably harder to make than most consumer apps, and now there is a shift towards hard tech startups, which, again are harder to build.

But startups were more about hard tech in 80s, early 90s. It will take a while that new big consumer tech platforms emerge, but when it happens, then again there will be shift towards viral consumer services.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#19

Post by baxtr »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #16

The evidence is likely in the data housed by Y Combinator, 500 Startups, and others in their market. Chart the statistical mean valuation of each cohort by year since graduation and see if that mean is changing. If Evans is correct, the mean should be declining for each successive cohort. Alternatively, since the number of funded startups seems to be increasing, you may prefer to look at total valuation over time sin…

Thank you. For me, the weak spot of the article is the missing data for this story.
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