Live data from Hacker News

Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

marketwatch.com

11–20 of 51 posts

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#11

Apple has enough cash on hand that they'll be able to make 0 profit for the next 50 years and still be around.

Not really. If they decide to screw over the shareholders like that, they won't take it lying down. Cook will be out ASAP.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#12
post #5

I was thinking about how cumbersome it would be to change phone platforms if I got tired of iPhone or Android, and then how much effort I wouldn't want to spend if my Amazon device controlled all the lights, TV, audio, and temperature in my house.

I think more than the individual effort of changing systems, its the network effect that keeps people tied down. A new platform or service could disrupt that easily. What if you didn't need to carry a phone (VR/AR/?), or what if all homes came with those systems built in.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#13

Apple has enough cash on hand that they'll be able to make 0 profit for the next 50 years and still be around.

Only if they stop giving it back to their shareholders. Since they started their buyback program in 2012 Apple has 'returned' over $222 billion to shareholders [0]. Presently they are issuing debt to finance the buybacks & dividends. If they are not careful they may end up like IBM.

[0] https://www.macrumors.com/2017/09/05/apple-5b-bond-sale-fund...

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#14
post #11

Apple has enough cash on hand that they'll be able to make 0 profit for the next 50 years and still be around.

Not really. If they decide to screw over the shareholders like that, they won't take it lying down. Cook will be out ASAP.

Fair enough.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#15

The reason there never will be a "fifth" horseman is because these four giant fishes keep devouring the little ones (startup acquisition/acqui-hire). Just because things happened in past a certain way, that does not necessarily mean those events can always be used as a predictability model for future. Stock market is at all time time. Are we headed towards crash? Maybe not. Maybe this is the time where we are setting…

Who's to say the next horseman won't resist the advances from the big Four? Zuckerberg retained control for a long time, and it's not inconceivable that the Next Big Thing won't get acquihired.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#16
post #15

The reason there never will be a "fifth" horseman is because these four giant fishes keep devouring the little ones (startup acquisition/acqui-hire). Just because things happened in past a certain way, that does not necessarily mean those events can always be used as a predictability model for future. Stock market is at all time time. Are we headed towards crash? Maybe not. Maybe this is the time where we are setting…

Who's to say the next horseman won't resist the advances from the big Four? Zuckerberg retained control for a long time, and it's not inconceivable that the Next Big Thing won't get acquihired.

everything has a price, no? especially a public company with shareholder voting rights...

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#18
post #8

Disagree with the author’s point of view on Netflix. I think it is quite a fragile business, with no monopoly whatsoever. I’m not much of a movie/series consumer though so might be biased about it.

I don't know, they have their own high quality content, and their TV back catalog is good. I would think they have a brighter future than many television companies, especially ones like HBO/Showtime and other special subscription companies. That said, they have less of a safety net than the others, with no cable deals to fall back on (which are steadily eroding from underneath the others anyway). However, they seem t…

i think if they stumbled, google would be the buyer. or maybe microsoft.

amazon already built their version of netflix, the only thing they would need to acquire is the original content, and consumers seem to be so fickle over content anyways a licensing deal with the real buyer would be better business strategy. (probably).

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#20
post #8

Disagree with the author’s point of view on Netflix. I think it is quite a fragile business, with no monopoly whatsoever. I’m not much of a movie/series consumer though so might be biased about it.

I don't know, they have their own high quality content, and their TV back catalog is good. I would think they have a brighter future than many television companies, especially ones like HBO/Showtime and other special subscription companies. That said, they have less of a safety net than the others, with no cable deals to fall back on (which are steadily eroding from underneath the others anyway). However, they seem t…

I’m not sure how long they get to keep their back catalog. Has anything been licensed indefinitely?

Their business is certainly going to only continue to increase in competitiveness for the foreseeable future. My primary concern, from Netflix’s view, would be Amazon being comfortable buying video content at a loss forever.

Post reply on HN