11–20 of 113 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.
The general problem with attempting to profit from global warming is that you end up having to short the entire financial system, and it's tough to make money from the idea of "everything stops working".
If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.
Sulam's sibling comment nails it.
The answer to this question is quite simple, and the two choice sentences from the article: "And their time frame is what, five years? How do you reconcile those two things: It’s a 100-year problem and a five-year investment cycle." The answer is simply that the private equity firm does not account for the long term, but that the city of Miami Beach will have to—soon. And that is fundamentally what makes climate chan…
There will be a day of reckoning soon when the next major hurricane hits and all of these new developments are damaged beyond repair. Miami got very lucky with Matthew a few months ago, but the next one is really going to hurt today's buyers.
If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
That being said, even though Chicago had high-rises at the time, buildings were all pretty much held in place by gravity at the time. Raising them was just a matter of having enough jackscrews to support the building and making sure the building was raised evenly so that it didn't crack.
I suspect that the higher level of integration between modern buildings and their foundations probably means that it's going to be cheaper to just tear down the buildings and rebuild them. My best friend is a structural engineer, so it would be interesting to see what he has to say on the topic. If Miami is anything like Chicago, all the buildings are probably built on piles already, and burying them is one of the most time consuming and expensive parts of the construction process. If you could re-use the piles for a new building you might be able to get away with rebuilding buildings on the cheap.
I suspect raising the vast majority of buildings would still be eminently possible though. You see this all of the time in flood-prone areas already. The only difference is that you'd be adding fill up to your new front door.
The answer to this question is quite simple, and the two choice sentences from the article: "And their time frame is what, five years? How do you reconcile those two things: It’s a 100-year problem and a five-year investment cycle." The answer is simply that the private equity firm does not account for the long term, but that the city of Miami Beach will have to—soon. And that is fundamentally what makes climate chan…
On the global level (let's say 50-100 years out), do you think we as a species are headed toward an "Easter Island" effect, where we "whistle past the graveyard" and assume everything is "fine" - until it isn't - and at that point we can't do anything and have to deal with the potentially existential consequences?
If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.
Another thing to note is that it costs money to short -- you are borrowing the shares after all, so you need to pay interest on the loan. This makes a multi-year position shorting select REITs troublesome.
The position I'm taking (roughly) is to hold oceanfront property with excellent sea-level protection. Think cliff-front, not beach-front. A different play? Construction companies specializing in sea level mitigation.
If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
Because they like Miami and want to build something there. They could put an Armani Hotel in Nashville or Indianapolis but those cities are not cool.
If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly... they don't. In hindsight things seem obvious, but at the time it's difficult to know if you are merely flirting with the edge, or you've actually gone over it. Miami real estate (an…
Rising sea levels are an interesting question for barrier islands like Miami Beach and Florida as a whole.
Though its important to also understand some of these articles unfairly paint sea level rise and climate change as responsible for a new phenomenon, the truth is Miami Beach has always flooded (during full moons water can rise right up through the ground). Not to mention Hurricanes, but truthfully Miami Beach has been sparred for the most part considering all the potential direct hits over the years and the fact that Andrew was a relatively dry hurricane. Al things considered, the engineering has always been impressive and continues to improve, just look at pre/post Hurricane Andrew codes.
Does the Miami Beach flood, sure, but no more than say Charleston, South Carolina. Or have you ever drove on a road that wasn't cracked in NOLA because the salt, (its actually below sea level), Miami Beach doesn't have that issue.
I will say this about the article, it doesn't even bother pretending or discussing how Miami Beach/Miami/Florida might position itself to take a leadership position issues of climate change and sea level rise. Moreover, there is almost an acknowledgement and reading between the lines of the money going into development as a scam on foreign investors...personally, I think that is pretty far off, but I can't help but admit such a fraud would be so Miami that it would be poetic.