Ask HN: Do forced startup ideas work?

Let me begin by clarifying the term 'forced' - in this context I would describe it as any idea that was artificially realized against a criteria, rather than an idea that naturally evolved as a need to solve a problem. For example;

Forced: There is a lot of growth in X market, lets think of something new within that area

Natural: Booking taxis is such a pain, wouldn't it be nice for them to see my GPS coordinates - Uber is conceptualized.

That being said, how many of you have successfully built a startup based on an idea that was retrofitted to a set of criteria's (eg. Paul Graham's startups we'd like to fund essay) rather than as a solution to any of your problems.

Is a natural idea more likely to succeed than an artificial one?

Both are very likely to fail. Execution and luck swamp any factors stemming from missionary versus doggy style conception.

To a first approximation: zero in both cases.

It's not a place for meaningful optimization. See JustinTV.

Very true, I have always had the same perception maybe even treated it as an undisputed cliché in every startup pitch.

But as time goes on, I seem to be getting more cynical to the perception and start believing a lot of the ideas are just more successful because of the 'market analysis' done before hand (with the exception of trend-makers, for example AirBnB)

Look at Blippar for instance, the startup that triggered this realization when I heard about it.

Augmented Reality has existed for quite some time, there have been countless applications, from real estate to navigation, yet many of similar start-ups have faded as time went on, but they on the other hand have remained due to targeting a cash rich market (Advertising) even though it solves no problem.

I know the above statement is quite simplistic, and surely it does not make the Blippar team justice for all the effort, strategies, etc that they employed. However, the idea of (what I perceive to be artificial) and yet has been so successful in such a short period of time is a bit of an eye opener.

I think the data shows forced ideas are less likely to succeed. The reason is you are less likely to understand the problem (you may or may not have lived it). You are also thus less likely to have any domain advantage over anyone else, or knowledge of any secrets. It may also affect your conviction; you may be less likely to believe in your idea when times get tough, because it is not deeply rooted in your experiences.