Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
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Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
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Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
#2* The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.
* As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.
Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
#3Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
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#5Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
#6Hate to be that guy, but what is the purpose of digging this up? To say "ha ha, the Internet is amazing?"
Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
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#8Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
#9Hate to be that guy, but what is the purpose of digging this up? To say "ha ha, the Internet is amazing?"
Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)
#10Despite this being on hacker news, Krugman's incorrect prediction actually doesn't harm his reputation significantly. Pessimism and pointing out of flaws elevates your status, while optimism can be construed as being naive.