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Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)

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Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)

#2
Full quotes:

* The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

* As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.

Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)

#6

Hate to be that guy, but what is the purpose of digging this up? To say "ha ha, the Internet is amazing?"

I'm guessing it's to try and discredit Krugman. I don't think he's liked around here from what I've read in various comment threads.

Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)

#8
He actually wrote a new post today, saying that "Bitcoin is Evil" was supposed to be a joke. Allegedly, nobody in the Bitcoin community understood it and now he complains about the lack of sense of humor that the Bitcoin community demonstrated.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/29/the-humor-test/

Re: Why most economists' predictions are wrong (1998)

#10
Beware of cynics.

Despite this being on hacker news, Krugman's incorrect prediction actually doesn't harm his reputation significantly. Pessimism and pointing out of flaws elevates your status, while optimism can be construed as being naive.

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