California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It • Hacker News Board

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#11

Post by Ankaios » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:36 PM UTC

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

The pollution gets shifted to the power plants, but the greenhouse gas emissions from power plants are often better than those from cars. IIRC, in California the fraction from hydro and other renewables is ~ 25 %. Nuclear is another 15 % or so. Natural gas is a big portion of the rest.

People living in an areas that get all of their electrical power from coal need to be more careful about choosing the better option, though. In those cases, something like a high-efficiency hybrid may currently win.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#12

Post by billyhoffman » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:38 PM UTC

spacehome wrote: post #5

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

Generally, it's much easier to make a larger engine more efficient and pollute less than one that has to be small, light, mobile, and safe in an impact.

Exactly. And we are talking about millions of ICEs in cars vs orders of magnitude fewer "engines" at power plants.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#13

Post by nitrogen » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:38 PM UTC

ajmarsh wrote: post #8

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

A quick googling produced: The impact of coal-burning power plants and gasoline can be quantified. The EPA estimates that the average passenger vehicle emits 5.1 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year. Coal-burning power plants, on the other hand, produce more than 4 million metric tons per power plant, per year. The overall carbon dioxide output of coal-fired electric power plants exceeded gasoline by mo…

These numbers need a bit more data and some unit conversion before they can be compared. Tons/powerplant and tons/car are not comparable units. We need something like tons/mile_electric and tons/mile_gasoline.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#14

Post by tdaltonc » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:43 PM UTC

I imagine that the women in that picture is supposed to look like she's taking in a breath of fresh air, but she looks incredibly smug.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#15

Post by kwhitefoot » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:44 PM UTC

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

Yes it externalizes it. But it centralises it too, making it easier to keep it clean. It also removes the pollution from town centres making them much pleasanter places to be. The total efficiency of burning oil in a large power station to power electric cars is generally is slightly better than burning the oil (which must be much more highly refined) in an internal combustion engine even if it is a hybrid.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#16

Post by danmaz74 » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:47 PM UTC

smarterchild wrote: post #6

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

The keyword for the problem you're talking about is the "long tailpipe theory." [1] I was just reading Wait But Why's article [2], which concluded that the overall greenhouse impact will still be lessened by using electric cars over internal combustion. I didn't dig into the sources enough to conclude that it's truly a better option, but those articles are a good place to start. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_…

Do those analyses also account for the energy needed to build the batteries? From the wikipedia link, it looks like they don't.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#17

Post by atlantic » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:48 PM UTC

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

Even if it does, relocating motor vehicle pollution away from major population centres will still have a massive public health impact.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#18

Post by mtgx » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:49 PM UTC

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

Yes, battery electricity is cleaner even if it comes from coal, compared to the energy given by gas in gas-powered cars. I've read an article about this recently but I don't remember which. The point it it's much more "efficient" to create that energy in a power plant than it is to do it within a small car engine.

Now, add to that the fact that in the US, the electricity is not 100% produced by coal and natural gas (I think 70% in total, but that number will also shrink when more companies adopt solar panels and batteries for power generation/storage).

Also, it's much better to keep the pollution away from the cities and people.

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#19

Post by Shivetya » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:50 PM UTC

Well battery tech will be a roadblock for some time but deadlines as far out as these make it look like something is being accomplished but provide enough time to not actually be a deadline. Converting off peak electrical power into hydrogen is getting more and more viable and frankly, I don't mind storing and transporting hydrogen versus stuffing the planet with li-ion batteries replete with their hazards.

GM should be first out of the gate with an affordable 200 mile range EV by late 16 or early 17. It will be interesting if other manufacturers follow quickly or wait too see what the uptake is. Fuel cells will likely be the filler application to directly replace fossil fuel engines.

that twenty year gap should be sufficient to get all used cars off the road as the one issue not addressed by current rebates is that the poor rarely can take advantage of them. Currently they seem to only serve the well off who could buy into new tech without them. California is already taking steps to fix this, income limits and such, but the federal government needs to do similar. Direct it to average consumer priced cars and likely there would be wider acceptance

Re: California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It

#20

Post by jeromeflipo » Mon, Aug 03, 2015, 3:51 PM UTC

rubbingalcohol wrote: post #2

Serious question: unless all the electricity for these vehicles comes from completely renewable and environmentally friendly sources, won't banning fossil fuel emissions from motor vehicles just externalize this pollution onto electric power plants? Is there data to show that the environmental impact will be somehow lessened?

An electric car generates less than 25% of CO2 as an equivalent gasoline car in California [0]. In every US state, an electric car produces less CO2 than an equivalent gas car.

[0] https://youtu.be/mURbzh9t0_0?t=5m40s