If the Panama Canal gets a rival • Hacker News Board

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#11

Post by x5n1 » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 5:53 AM UTC

sitharus wrote: post #6

chadlung wrote: post #5

Looking at the proposed map of the canal how does this work when Lake Nicaragua [1] is freshwater? Even with locks I'm guessing salt water from the sea will slowly contaminate (seep) into the lake causing big changes for the ecosystem and local population. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nicaragua

Not hugely likely, the lake is higher than the sea so the salt won't migrate up. The water level in the lake will likely be affected though. The danger is ballast water held by ships, but like Panama they'll likely forbid all water discharge while in the canal.

I am sure accidents happen. So some contamination will occur regardless.

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#12

Post by pchristensen » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 6:06 AM UTC

prewett wrote: post #9

I'll admit to being skeptical, too, but I seem to recall reading that people thought that the US was not going to be able to finish the original canal and that the whole project was foolhardy. I think the US was just more tenacious than France before it (also people had learned about the role of mosquitoes in disease and sprayed the mosquitoes) China has a very long history of massive building projects, so if Nicarag…

The book The Path Between The Seas is an incredible history of the Panama Canal. http://www.amazon.com/The-Path-Between-Seas-1870-1914-ebook/...

Short version: the French tried to build it as an investment, but the vision they could sell (sea level canal) couldn't be built. USA took over and muscled through because it was strategically important to the govt and it was a huge jobs program and stimulus to American companies selling food, transportation, steel, construction equipment, medicine, etc to the 30k+ workers. Also gave electrical projects to a young GE!

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#13

Post by CPLX » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 6:22 AM UTC

chadlung wrote: post #5

Looking at the proposed map of the canal how does this work when Lake Nicaragua [1] is freshwater? Even with locks I'm guessing salt water from the sea will slowly contaminate (seep) into the lake causing big changes for the ecosystem and local population. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nicaragua

Harbors generally are freshwater, and boundaries between fresh and sea water are innumerable, if you stop and think about it for a few seconds. If this was a real problem it would have contaminated Lake Michigan and the Hudson Valley by the same means.

The reason it hasn't is that water generally doesn't flow uphill.

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#14

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 6:33 AM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #13

chadlung wrote: post #5

Looking at the proposed map of the canal how does this work when Lake Nicaragua [1] is freshwater? Even with locks I'm guessing salt water from the sea will slowly contaminate (seep) into the lake causing big changes for the ecosystem and local population. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nicaragua

Harbors generally are freshwater, and boundaries between fresh and sea water are innumerable, if you stop and think about it for a few seconds. If this was a real problem it would have contaminated Lake Michigan and the Hudson Valley by the same means. The reason it hasn't is that water generally doesn't flow uphill.

[deleted]

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#15

Post by PhasmaFelis » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 7:06 AM UTC

It's weird how they compare China's (hypothetical) desire for a naval military presence in the Atlantic to the USA's presence in the Pacific. Guys, the USA has coasts on the Atlantic and Pacific. No one can say we don't have a legitimate interest in defending our borders at least. I can't think of any reason for China to have carrier groups steaming around the Atlantic other than "lookin' for trouble."

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#16

Post by mschuster91 » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 7:19 AM UTC

> After all, what wouldn’t China pay to see one of its naval fleets one day emerging from the Central American jungle right under America’s nose?

Not that the US Navy couldn't already shoot up entire fleets with missiles, but when a fleet passes through a tiny canal, well, it's a canal and a tiny nuke is enough to blow up the entire fleet with no way to escape...

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#17

Post by pavement » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 7:55 AM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #16

> After all, what wouldn’t China pay to see one of its naval fleets one day emerging from the Central American jungle right under America’s nose? Not that the US Navy couldn't already shoot up entire fleets with missiles, but when a fleet passes through a tiny canal, well, it's a canal and a tiny nuke is enough to blow up the entire fleet with no way to escape...

Totally not going to happen during peacetime, while there is zero pretense for live-fire open warfare.

This sort of posturing is likely to occur, before any actual sabre-rattling or actual shots fired in anger.

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#18

Post by pavement » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 8:07 AM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #13

chadlung wrote: post #5

Looking at the proposed map of the canal how does this work when Lake Nicaragua [1] is freshwater? Even with locks I'm guessing salt water from the sea will slowly contaminate (seep) into the lake causing big changes for the ecosystem and local population. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nicaragua

Harbors generally are freshwater, and boundaries between fresh and sea water are innumerable, if you stop and think about it for a few seconds. If this was a real problem it would have contaminated Lake Michigan and the Hudson Valley by the same means. The reason it hasn't is that water generally doesn't flow uphill.

I guess 32.7 meters above sea level is reasonably uphill.

I'm too lazy to calculate the approximate volume of fresh water that represents, based on the lake's surface area. Pretty safe to say that the rest of the lake's volume, at and below sea level wouldn't be rendered brackish too easily.

Although, given China's penchant for environmental accidents, I wouldn't put it past them, if all that additional lake water above sea level were to get skimmed off the top by an accidental spill into the ocean.

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#19

Post by julianpye » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 8:26 AM UTC

Please note that this is article is part of a special section of the Economist this week called 'What If'. It is highly speculative and more about the potential of scenarios and alternatives rather than a real article. As an example another article is a retrospective on the first 100 days of Hillary Clinton as president, having won against Marco Rubio.

I love the Economist and find the section thought provoking, but hope it is not a trend to soften up the paper.

Re: If the Panama Canal gets a rival

#20

Post by rm445 » Sun, Aug 02, 2015, 8:48 AM UTC

jakozaur wrote: post #4

Back on the envelope calculations suggest that is not profitable investment. Even with optimistic assumptions: http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2015/01/the-nicaragua-cana...

Not a profitable investment on a 15-year timescale. Potentially profitable over 25 years (according to the linked estimates) - and this is for a project with a 50-year concession, with a 50-year extension allowed for.

Perhaps it would be silly for private investors to pile in hoping for a short-term return, but over the life of the canal it could potentially be a great investment for sufficiently long-term entities (such as nation states) to invest in.