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Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#41

Post by MagnumOpus »

nl wrote: post #19

I wish there was a really good source for analysis on the Greek situation that ignored value judgements of what "should" happen. To me it appears that Varoufakis is the Bobby Fischer of economics at the moment[1]. Of course he had a plan to keep the Greek economy (somewhat) alive if Grexit occurred. It would astonish me if some details of the plan hadn't been leaked to the EU - the Greeks would want them to know abou…

If this summer's negotiations were a deliberate chess move, they are akin to manoeuvring yourself into a Fool's Mate.

Closing all banks for the largest part of a month sinks your economy at a faster pace than any austerity ever could. The country was on the path to recovery since last year but this summer has caused another implosion in economic activity similar to a devaluation - all without getting the eventual side benefits of an actual Grexit.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#42

Post by dvdgsng »

tptacek wrote: post #18

Here's FT's (much better) reporting: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2a0a1d94-3201-11e5-8873-775ba... (The headline is "Syriza’s covert plot during crisis talks to return to drachma" if you want to Google it because of the registration wall).

mirror at archive.is: https://archive.is/UUioO

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#43

Post by felipeerias »

nl wrote: post #33
tptacek wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People should stop downvoting this comment. He's not making this up. Hugo Dixon has been covering this drama, and his summary is much better than Telegram's: http://hugo-dixon.com/2015/07/26/wild-plan-b/ This is so batshit crazy my jaw is hanging open.

The scheme to arrest the Bank of Greece governor & raiding national mint was separate to the Varoufakis' plan, and to try to combine the two is a huge mistake. That plan was just dumb, while the Varoufakis plan was crazy and or subtle. I view Varoufakis's plan as a trump card to play against the Troika. The Troika believe that - in the end - the Greeks would always roll over and give in to their proposals. Varoufakis…

Varoufakis didn't care about his crazy plans destroying the economy, because he only intended to use them as a threat. "Give us what we want or we will crash out of the Euro!"

And then the people on the other side of the table said: "Excellent, go on!"

Not only did the Troika believe that in the end the Greek government would "roll over and give in to their proposals": many EU governments and officials actually preferred the alternative.

The negotiations of the past weeks have shown that not only Greece was bluffing about leaving the Euro, but that other countries would be more than happy to let them leave.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#44

Post by templl »

The people orchestraiting the integration of the eurozone want a greek crisis. They need the greek crisis in order to gain political support for the next phase which is fiscal integration. They will generate fear and disorder and then the people would be willing to agree upon the fiscal integration of europe. Varoufakis knows this very well, to quote from the article: "And he (German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble) said explicitly to me that a Grexit is going to equip him with sufficient terrorising power in order to impose upon the French that which Paris has been resisting: a degree of transfer of budget-making powers from Paris to Brussels." Varoufakis

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#45

Post by mike_hearn »

jacobolus wrote: post #27
tptacek wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again: the issue is not Grexit and return of the drachma. That's a realistic, if incredibly painful, option. The issue is doing it abruptly, by fiat, at the behest of a faction of Syriza. If they had gone ahead with this plan, Syriza would be isolated from everyone --- the Greek people, who would instantly lose the majority of their assets in the euro/drachma haircut, and every lender in the world that might help sof…

What makes you think they’d get any kind of cooperation or assistance from the ECB? They’ve gotten nothing but overt hostility from the ECB for 6 months. Your link simplifies to an extreme, hand-waving away all the difficult parts of implementing the plan (e.g. how to keep the banks open, how to keep the government functioning, what the response would be of the IMF and ECB, how to prevent capital from immediately fle…

If by "overt hostility" you mean "lots of money" then sure ...

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#46

Post by mike_hearn »

tptacek wrote: post #26
jacobolus wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s your alternative suggestion? I haven’t seen any plausible proposal for a way Greece could have gotten off the Euro on short notice without the ECB throwing a tantrum and a complete meltdown as a result. Which is probably why they decided not to do it, and are now stuck in permanent miserable limbo.

Again: the issue is not Grexit and return of the drachma. That's a realistic, if incredibly painful, option. The issue is doing it abruptly, by fiat, at the behest of a faction of Syriza. If they had gone ahead with this plan, Syriza would be isolated from everyone --- the Greek people, who would instantly lose the majority of their assets in the euro/drachma haircut, and every lender in the world that might help sof…

> Here's a Greek expat trying to lay out what an orderly transition from Eurozone membership to a drachma economy would look like

He seems remarkably sanguine about the whole thing. He seems to think Greece only imports iPhones and other luxuries. In reality they import about a third of their food, they import electricity, oil, virtually all medicines. He mentions those are "cheap" but that's because the pharma industry was treating them as a charity case for the last six months.

Where I do agree is that Greece cannot radically increase exports simply by switching to their own currency and printing a lot of it. People aren't going to suddenly double their consumption of cheese if Greece halves their prices.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#47

Post by Tomte »

templl wrote: post #44

The people orchestraiting the integration of the eurozone want a greek crisis. They need the greek crisis in order to gain political support for the next phase which is fiscal integration. They will generate fear and disorder and then the people would be willing to agree upon the fiscal integration of europe. Varoufakis knows this very well, to quote from the article: "And he (German finance minister Wolfgang Schaubl…

If you believe Varoufakis.

It may be Schäuble's game plan, I cannot know about it, but telling all about it to Varoufakis? That's akin to James Bond's opponents always disclosing their secret master plan just before they think they're going to kill Bond. Real world doesn't work like that.

I simply find it implausible. Why should Schäuble admit to all that openly in a discussion with him? What good would it do?

Nothing: if it ever came out (and Varoufakis has constantly been talking to the press), France will be alienated and his alleged goal will be even farther away.

It simply does not add up.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#48

Post by Mithaldu »

Tomte wrote: post #47
templl wrote: post #44

The people orchestraiting the integration of the eurozone want a greek crisis. They need the greek crisis in order to gain political support for the next phase which is fiscal integration. They will generate fear and disorder and then the people would be willing to agree upon the fiscal integration of europe. Varoufakis knows this very well, to quote from the article: "And he (German finance minister Wolfgang Schaubl…

If you believe Varoufakis. It may be Schäuble's game plan, I cannot know about it, but telling all about it to Varoufakis? That's akin to James Bond's opponents always disclosing their secret master plan just before they think they're going to kill Bond. Real world doesn't work like that. I simply find it implausible. Why should Schäuble admit to all that openly in a discussion with him? What good would it do? Nothin…

You're making the assumption that Schäuble is a reasonable man, which he's proven amply not to be.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#49

Post by templl »

Tomte wrote: post #47
templl wrote: post #44

The people orchestraiting the integration of the eurozone want a greek crisis. They need the greek crisis in order to gain political support for the next phase which is fiscal integration. They will generate fear and disorder and then the people would be willing to agree upon the fiscal integration of europe. Varoufakis knows this very well, to quote from the article: "And he (German finance minister Wolfgang Schaubl…

If you believe Varoufakis. It may be Schäuble's game plan, I cannot know about it, but telling all about it to Varoufakis? That's akin to James Bond's opponents always disclosing their secret master plan just before they think they're going to kill Bond. Real world doesn't work like that. I simply find it implausible. Why should Schäuble admit to all that openly in a discussion with him? What good would it do? Nothin…

I agree with you. I guess only time will tell. But just to speculate maybe Schäuble is really arrogant and he knows no one would believe Varoufakis. Maybe he said that in a very diplomatic way and Varoufakis was quoting what he believe the minister said. It is also naive to think that the french would be completly in the dark about german intentions. That's why Hollande is completly against the Grexit. But you are right its implausible, and even if true Varoufakis lost his oportunity. I do believe that there are some forces looking forward to implement a fiscal union and that they are unstoppable. I only wish they do not seek to prostrate europe to achieve their goal.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#50

Post by templl »

Tomte wrote: post #47
templl wrote: post #44

The people orchestraiting the integration of the eurozone want a greek crisis. They need the greek crisis in order to gain political support for the next phase which is fiscal integration. They will generate fear and disorder and then the people would be willing to agree upon the fiscal integration of europe. Varoufakis knows this very well, to quote from the article: "And he (German finance minister Wolfgang Schaubl…

If you believe Varoufakis. It may be Schäuble's game plan, I cannot know about it, but telling all about it to Varoufakis? That's akin to James Bond's opponents always disclosing their secret master plan just before they think they're going to kill Bond. Real world doesn't work like that. I simply find it implausible. Why should Schäuble admit to all that openly in a discussion with him? What good would it do? Nothin…

Further speculation:

I think Varoufakis does not oppose the integration plan. He is just against sacrificing the greeks to achieve that goal. In that context it would be plausible for Schäuble to say that. Schäuble could be trying to convince Varoufakis that it is the only/best way to break the french. Assuming the french already know this it changes nothing if anyone knows he said that. What is weird to me is that Varoufakis seems to be in the know about a lot of things and if Schäuble said that to him it means he respects him. On the other hand he has planns to spear head a revolution against the monetary powers that be. Also i think this plan b is not a surprise at all to anyone, given that Varoufakis was very open about it. People involved knew that a national currency plan b would involve a coup, and in his blog he talked about the cryptocurrency and the whole thing ages ago.

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