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Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#31

Post by Tomte »

nl wrote: post #30
Tomte wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As all central banks in the Eurozone, the Bank of Greece is not government-controlled, but independant.

That simplifies the actual situation. Yes - in common with most central banks it is supposed to be independent. However It ... acts as a treasurer and fiscal agent for the Greek government [1] and is partially owned by the Greek government (35%) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Greece

No, you try to confuse the issue.

The finance Minister of Greece has no authority to order the BoG around re: fiscal policy, nor has he any right to seize its money.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#32

Post by Tomte »

asgard1024 wrote: post #29
tptacek wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that they had a Plan B, but what that plan was. Their Plan B was essentially a coup, instrumented through the financial system.

I am genuinely curious - what would be a correct Plan B? I am not sure how could you have a Grexit without it being a coup. Personally, I am not a big fan of central bank independence, as a concept. There is always some dependence, because institutions are staffed and constructed by humans, and I think proclaiming independence is a bit muddy in democracy. If Tsipras took control over Greek Central Bank, it would stil…

Easy: let parliament vote for Grexit.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#33

Post by nl »

tptacek wrote: post #12
Tomte wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No? Grabbing your central bank's reserves without any involvement of parliament and preparing to arrest its chief without any legal justification sounds fine to you? It would have been the ultimate power grab by Syriza, going against all laws and democracy. Just because Syriza got a majority in the elections doesn't mean the rule of law has been suspended.

People should stop downvoting this comment. He's not making this up. Hugo Dixon has been covering this drama, and his summary is much better than Telegram's: http://hugo-dixon.com/2015/07/26/wild-plan-b/ This is so batshit crazy my jaw is hanging open.

The scheme to arrest the Bank of Greece governor & raiding national mint was separate to the Varoufakis' plan, and to try to combine the two is a huge mistake. That plan was just dumb, while the Varoufakis plan was crazy and or subtle.

I view Varoufakis's plan as a trump card to play against the Troika. The Troika believe that - in the end - the Greeks would always roll over and give in to their proposals.

Varoufakis plan was to be able to say "you didn't count on this crazy plan* and be able to present something that was undoubtedly crazy, but just credible enough to make the Troika think that the Greeks might try it.

Sometimes acting crazy is the best strategy. To quote:

it turns out that the best strategy if you get to play the game only once is to make the most credible attempt possible in pretending to be a Hawk while actually being a Dove. When you are in one of the cars heading for each other, growl, scream, throw bottles out he window, swerve and then come back onto the road again. In short give the impression that you are mad and unpredictable, and definitely capable of doing mad things like not swerving under any circumstances. Do not signal that you may compromise, even though you know you will.

[1] http://karlstrobl.com/2015/05/28/varoufakis-and-game-theory/

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#34

Post by dragonwriter »

Tomte wrote: post #31
nl wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That simplifies the actual situation. Yes - in common with most central banks it is supposed to be independent. However It ... acts as a treasurer and fiscal agent for the Greek government [1] and is partially owned by the Greek government (35%) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Greece

No, you try to confuse the issue. The finance Minister of Greece has no authority to order the BoG around re: fiscal policy, nor has he any right to seize its money.

> The finance Minister of Greece has no authority to order the BoG around re: fiscal policy

AFAIK, this is incorrect. The government orders that bank with regard to fiscal actions (that's what the "fiscal agent" role means.) Monetary policy is another thing.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#35

Post by Tomte »

dragonwriter wrote: post #34
Tomte wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you try to confuse the issue. The finance Minister of Greece has no authority to order the BoG around re: fiscal policy, nor has he any right to seize its money.

> The finance Minister of Greece has no authority to order the BoG around re: fiscal policy AFAIK, this is incorrect. The government orders that bank with regard to fiscal actions (that's what the "fiscal agent" role means.) Monetary policy is another thing.

You're right, I confused those two.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#36

Post by nl »

Tomte wrote: post #31
nl wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That simplifies the actual situation. Yes - in common with most central banks it is supposed to be independent. However It ... acts as a treasurer and fiscal agent for the Greek government [1] and is partially owned by the Greek government (35%) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Greece

No, you try to confuse the issue. The finance Minister of Greece has no authority to order the BoG around re: fiscal policy, nor has he any right to seize its money.

Bank of Greece shareholdings: https://www.nbg.gr/english/the-group/corporate-governance/sh...

That 57% owned by the HFSF? That's the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund[1], the management of which is controlled by the Greek government[2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Financial_Stability_F...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Financial_Stability_F...

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#37

Post by [deleted] »

BenjiBG wrote: post #10
msandford wrote: post #3

I can't see how that's in any way treasonous. Treason is going against your country. Investigating an alternative monetary system -- at the request of the prime minister -- hardly seems like treason. Especially if you're the finance minister. Keeping it a secret doesn't make it treason either. Treason would be to defect from Greece to the IMF or ECB or Germany with information to sink Greece and eliminate any kind of…

Even though he was finance minister he was/wouldn't have beeen not authorized performing some of the actions done (e.g. "A secret cell at the Greek finance ministry hacked into the government computers") or planned. Even the prime minister has not the authority for such decicsions. As in other democracies the parliament has to vote. Calling it treason depends on the point of view. We'll never know wether it would hav…

[deleted]

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#38

Post by fwn »

Tomte wrote: post #32
asgard1024 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am genuinely curious - what would be a correct Plan B? I am not sure how could you have a Grexit without it being a coup. Personally, I am not a big fan of central bank independence, as a concept. There is always some dependence, because institutions are staffed and constructed by humans, and I think proclaiming independence is a bit muddy in democracy. If Tsipras took control over Greek Central Bank, it would stil…

Easy: let parliament vote for Grexit.

That's not practical. The plans would've been leaked and people would've tried to take advantage of it.

The idea that a parliamentary decision would have been better than one from the cabinet because the legitimating chain would've been slightly shorter sounds like a rather esoteric reason to judge their actions on.

But as opponents this is a great opportunity. They'll get crushed, I guess.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#39

Post by rurban »

nl wrote: post #33
tptacek wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People should stop downvoting this comment. He's not making this up. Hugo Dixon has been covering this drama, and his summary is much better than Telegram's: http://hugo-dixon.com/2015/07/26/wild-plan-b/ This is so batshit crazy my jaw is hanging open.

The scheme to arrest the Bank of Greece governor & raiding national mint was separate to the Varoufakis' plan, and to try to combine the two is a huge mistake. That plan was just dumb, while the Varoufakis plan was crazy and or subtle. I view Varoufakis's plan as a trump card to play against the Troika. The Troika believe that - in the end - the Greeks would always roll over and give in to their proposals. Varoufakis…

I don't see that as crazy. The national bank is still led by a member of the old cast, who is hostile to Syriza.

Besides the fact the Troika controlling the data of the finance ministry, the tax files, with no access to the current legal authority, you should also consider the likely possibility of a military coup to get rid of Syriza.

The trumped up language by the germans and their press made it very likely to prepare such a step. This didn't come forward yet. But given the history I call it very likely. Until the referendum backed them up.

And of course the Troika also had their plan B developed in secret, a similar group of 5, getting rid of Greece in the eurozone, despite it was against the EU rules. This was in the news last month. But they never offered Greece assistance to leave the Eurozone. Schaeuble at least talked publicly about it, and was punished for it.

In the grexit scenario raiding their assets is the best thing to do. But the more interesting question is if the military (with support by the Troika) would have taken over. Exciting times.

Re: Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges

#40

Post by MagnumOpus »

Tomte wrote: post #4
msandford wrote: post #3

I can't see how that's in any way treasonous. Treason is going against your country. Investigating an alternative monetary system -- at the request of the prime minister -- hardly seems like treason. Especially if you're the finance minister. Keeping it a secret doesn't make it treason either. Treason would be to defect from Greece to the IMF or ECB or Germany with information to sink Greece and eliminate any kind of…

No? Grabbing your central bank's reserves without any involvement of parliament and preparing to arrest its chief without any legal justification sounds fine to you? It would have been the ultimate power grab by Syriza, going against all laws and democracy. Just because Syriza got a majority in the elections doesn't mean the rule of law has been suspended.

Syriza didn't get a majority, they got just over a third of the votes. Even with the 50 bonus seats for the biggest party, they don't have a parliamentary majority and depend on the support of the radical nationalist party ANEL.
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