Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
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Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#2Too ambitious? I'm thinking 2020 will look pretty much like 2010 which looks pretty much like 2000 :-(
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#3Kurzweil is a bit optimistic on timing. His predictions will come through probably at:
2010 + (2020-2010)*PI
Not sure if I will be around :), or he for that matter!
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#4Too ambitious? I'm thinking 2020 will look pretty much like 2010 which looks pretty much like 2000 :-(
Indeed. What did Kurzweil predict in 2000 that would happen by 2010? That our phones would be basically the same, MP3 players would achieve more market penetration, that a high end PC bought three years ago would be good enough to run any of today's high-end games or apps? (When was the last time you could say that?) That human genome research would turn out have practically no near-term usefulness? That we'd all be somewhat poorer than we were a decade ago?
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#5Too ambitious? I'm thinking 2020 will look pretty much like 2010 which looks pretty much like 2000 :-(
2000 like 2010? You don’t really believe that, right?
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#6Too ambitious? I'm thinking 2020 will look pretty much like 2010 which looks pretty much like 2000 :-(
Indeed. What did Kurzweil predict in 2000 that would happen by 2010? That our phones would be basically the same, MP3 players would achieve more market penetration, that a high end PC bought three years ago would be good enough to run any of today's high-end games or apps? (When was the last time you could say that ?) That human genome research would turn out have practically no near-term usefulness? That we'd all be…
For what Kurzweil actually predicted around 2000, check out his book The Age of Spiritual Machines. It's wildly wrong about some things and overly optimistic about others, but still a pretty interesting read.
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#7here we go again...
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#8Too ambitious? I'm thinking 2020 will look pretty much like 2010 which looks pretty much like 2000 :-(
2000 like 2010? You don’t really believe that, right?
Well, what's the difference between the average human lifespan in 2000 and the average human lifespan in 2010? The Internet is very different than it was (though more in form than in function), various industries have risen or fallen, and so on, and - probably what the parent post was talking about - that all fits very tidily into the normal pattern of human history. No-one can meaningfully predict what technologies will be popular in 2020, or what the geopolitical situation will be, but it seems a plausible bet that there will not be anything fundamentally different about it.
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#9Too ambitious? I'm thinking 2020 will look pretty much like 2010 which looks pretty much like 2000 :-(
2000 like 2010? You don’t really believe that, right?
And what's significantly different?
We are still stuck with the x86 architecture. All operating systems are just new versions of the same products. Sure, the web got rounded corners, dial-up is completely gone, and the dot-com bubble burst, but computing has not changed a whole lot.
The changes of the last decade have been mostly bug fixes. Not that this is a bad thing.
Re: Ray Kurzweil predicts how technology will change humanity by 2020
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
2000 like 2010? You don’t really believe that, right?
And what's significantly different? We are still stuck with the x86 architecture. All operating systems are just new versions of the same products. Sure, the web got rounded corners, dial-up is completely gone, and the dot-com bubble burst, but computing has not changed a whole lot. The changes of the last decade have been mostly bug fixes. Not that this is a bad thing.
Wikipedia. The best compendium of knowledge in the history of mankind.
Google. From a lab project to revolutionize finding information.
Youtube. It's now possible to share video with everyone around the world lacking information.
iPhone. Real, useful smartphones are finally here.
And that's just what I thought of off the top of my head, in a minute, from the field I work in. There are thousands of examples everywhere you look. They're just hard to see sometimes, because they're "normal" now.