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Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

jeffmeyerson.com

21–30 of 33 posts

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#21
post #13

Theoretically, is this idea possible? 1) Make a casino with slot machines/etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different) 2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead. 3) Casino can ta…

The whole appeal of a slot machine is that you might put in a dollar and get back a thousand. The prospect of a huge payoff is what keep s people pulling the lever. Since that would essentially never happen on a 10-second buy/sell action on a real stock, I doubt any actual gambler would care to participate.

You can make payout tables similar to what they are now but instead of having a 1% house edge there's actually a small player edge. The house then covers the player edge and makes money by the stock investment.

The issues would be

1) If you assume a 7% annual return, the return on the 10 second investment would be extremely small. 7 percent / 250 working days per year / 8 market hours per day / 60 minutes per hour / 6 ten second periods per minute = 9.7e-6 percent return every 10 seconds. On a billion dollars play through in a year you'd be looking at a $97 return.

2) I don't know what commissions are like on the volume of small, short trades you'd be doing but I imagine they would be more than $0.0000001 cents per trade which means you're losing money.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#22
post #13

Theoretically, is this idea possible? 1) Make a casino with slot machines/etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different) 2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead. 3) Casino can ta…

The whole appeal of a slot machine is that you might put in a dollar and get back a thousand. The prospect of a huge payoff is what keep s people pulling the lever. Since that would essentially never happen on a 10-second buy/sell action on a real stock, I doubt any actual gambler would care to participate.

You can use some form of leverage to allow the possibility of 1000x jackpots by using leverage - options, leveraged ETFs etc.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#23
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole appeal of a slot machine is that you might put in a dollar and get back a thousand. The prospect of a huge payoff is what keep s people pulling the lever. Since that would essentially never happen on a 10-second buy/sell action on a real stock, I doubt any actual gambler would care to participate.

You can make payout tables similar to what they are now but instead of having a 1% house edge there's actually a small player edge. The house then covers the player edge and makes money by the stock investment. The issues would be 1) If you assume a 7% annual return, the return on the 10 second investment would be extremely small. 7 percent / 250 working days per year / 8 market hours per day / 60 minutes per hour /…

You would have to be your own broker and/or build your own HFT system.

It's been a while since I used it, but API trading for laymen was somewhere between $1-2/trade at the bulk packaging.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#24
post #7

I like the general idea — gamblers can do useful work for society — but one area that needs improvement is the kind of things that the participants will be betting on. "IBM wants to offer the minimum amount that the candidate will accept," however the gamblers are not asked to figure that out, instead the "entire wager pool is awarded to the Turks who had the closest answers [to what IBM actually offered]". Thus the…

The bets are contrived for sure, but that was for the purpose of simplicity.

I believe the LinkedIn profile betting example is something feasible in the future, that we can't imagine very well by today's mores.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#25

One potential problem is that instead of assessing problem objectively, since the payout is based on "most popular" answer, people will choose which answer they expect to be most popular, rather than the one they necessarily believe in. This drives down the value of the crowdsourced data - because it's not real "insight", is already tainted by the very gamification you're looking to monetise!

There is certainly a metagame but there is also metagame between spam and spam filters.

It's a dynamic equilibrium that can be accounted for.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#26
post #8

> These solutions provide no value to anyone. They provide entertainment value sometimes, and for winners they provide monetary value. This is like saying watching a movie or playing football has no value. The particularities of the game may create the value. E.g., poker is a well balanced game.

Entertainment is not mutually exclusive with the utility.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#28
post #4

I know where the name comes from but still, the word Turk being used as the name of the unit workforce while making automation by using mass manual labor is a bit inconvenient. We already have an ambiguity with the name of our country in the English language, give us a break :)

I thought you were just being a stickler referring to Mechanical Turk, but then I saw the PDF, and it didn't actually refer to a casino in Turkey. Wow, this is some next level confusion right there. What were the authors thinking?

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#29
post #4

I know where the name comes from but still, the word Turk being used as the name of the unit workforce while making automation by using mass manual labor is a bit inconvenient. We already have an ambiguity with the name of our country in the English language, give us a break :)

I thought you were just being a stickler referring to Mechanical Turk, but then I saw the PDF, and it didn't actually refer to a casino in Turkey. Wow, this is some next level confusion right there. What were the authors thinking?

I was thinking it is a catchy name.

You are turning a casino into a nexus for mechanical turks. What is complicated about it?

It's also not meant to be offensive, if anything it is a compliment to Turkish people. They are good at solving problems with no definitive solution.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#30
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought you were just being a stickler referring to Mechanical Turk, but then I saw the PDF, and it didn't actually refer to a casino in Turkey. Wow, this is some next level confusion right there. What were the authors thinking?

I was thinking it is a catchy name. You are turning a casino into a nexus for mechanical turks. What is complicated about it? It's also not meant to be offensive, if anything it is a compliment to Turkish people. They are good at solving problems with no definitive solution.

What's complicated is that a "mechanical Turk" isn't a person from Turkey, and a "Turk" isn't an anthropomorphic automaton. "Turkish" means "from Turkey", not "a place where mechanical Turks operate".

It's like calling Wikipedia "wiki". A wiki is already a thing, using the word for the set to refer to an element is confusing, although I guess this is the opposite, and would be a bit like calling MoinMoin a "Wikipedia".

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