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Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

jeffmeyerson.com

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Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#13
Theoretically, is this idea possible?

1) Make a casino with slot machines/etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different)

2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead.

3) Casino can take 3.5% for setting everything up.

What would make this impossible?

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#14
post #13

Theoretically, is this idea possible? 1) Make a casino with slot machines/etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different) 2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead. 3) Casino can ta…

The gamblers will not come out ahead. The 7% return you mention requires buying and holding.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#15
post #13

Theoretically, is this idea possible? 1) Make a casino with slot machines/etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different) 2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead. 3) Casino can ta…

A slot machine based on this principle exists and was presented at ICE last year (forgot the name). However keep in mind that the stock market grows at single digit percentage points per year. Slots machines only run for a couple of seconds, so there's no real profit made in that time frame. (As far as I can recall the rational for this system was of legal nature).

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#16
post #14
post #13

Theoretically, is this idea possible? 1) Make a casino with slot machines/etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different) 2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead. 3) Casino can ta…

The gamblers will not come out ahead. The 7% return you mention requires buying and holding.

You'd have to run it as a sort of recurring scheme where the current players are earning an expected value based on the investments of the previous years' players - start with a negative expected value until the backing fund achieves a decent annuity, then trend it toward positive.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#17
post #13

Theoretically, is this idea possible? 1) Make a casino with slot machines/etc. Connect slot machines to a stock market day trading system that acts at random on each lever pull (I.E. buying and then selling 10 seconds later, when the price is a bit different) 2) Gamblers will gamble as they usually do, but since the stock market grows on average by 7% a year, they should theoretically come out ahead. 3) Casino can ta…

The whole appeal of a slot machine is that you might put in a dollar and get back a thousand. The prospect of a huge payoff is what keep s people pulling the lever.

Since that would essentially never happen on a 10-second buy/sell action on a real stock, I doubt any actual gambler would care to participate.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#19

If one can make this work this would be huge. One could offer casino style games at a house edge of 0% (house edge = the amount that the house wins on average on every bet). This would not only be a super compelling value proposition to gamblers, it would be a huge step towards eliminating problem gambling: A gambling addict that plays at a 0% house edge would not loose money in the long run. I run a small bitcoin ca…

> A gambling addict that plays at a 0% house edge would not loose money in the long run.

This isnt true because the house edge is the average return. the individual players can have a positive or negative edge depending on their skill. this would be like playing poker without a rake.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#20
One potential problem is that instead of assessing problem objectively, since the payout is based on "most popular" answer, people will choose which answer they expect to be most popular, rather than the one they necessarily believe in. This drives down the value of the crowdsourced data - because it's not real "insight", is already tainted by the very gamification you're looking to monetise!
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