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Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

jeffmeyerson.com

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Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#4
I know where the name comes from but still, the word Turk being used as the name of the unit workforce while making automation by using mass manual labor is a bit inconvenient. We already have an ambiguity with the name of our country in the English language, give us a break :)

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#7
I like the general idea — gamblers can do useful work for society — but one area that needs improvement is the kind of things that the participants will be betting on.

"IBM wants to offer the minimum amount that the candidate will accept," however the gamblers are not asked to figure that out, instead the "entire wager pool is awarded to the Turks who had the closest answers [to what IBM actually offered]".

Thus the smart gambler tries to figure out not what the candidate would accept, but what IBM is likely to offer. At this point the prediction market does not predict what the candidate will accept, but what IBM will offer.

One might be able to construct a prediction market where the gamblers incentive is to identify the lowest number the candidate would accept, but this is not it.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#8
> These solutions provide no value to anyone.

They provide entertainment value sometimes, and for winners they provide monetary value. This is like saying watching a movie or playing football has no value. The particularities of the game may create the value. E.g., poker is a well balanced game.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#9
post #7

I like the general idea — gamblers can do useful work for society — but one area that needs improvement is the kind of things that the participants will be betting on. "IBM wants to offer the minimum amount that the candidate will accept," however the gamblers are not asked to figure that out, instead the "entire wager pool is awarded to the Turks who had the closest answers [to what IBM actually offered]". Thus the…

Also if the "third party/asker" decides who wins. The third party could try to colude with one player.

Re: Turkish Casino: Gambling of the Future [pdf]

#10
If one can make this work this would be huge. One could offer casino style games at a house edge of 0% (house edge = the amount that the house wins on average on every bet). This would not only be a super compelling value proposition to gamblers, it would be a huge step towards eliminating problem gambling: A gambling addict that plays at a 0% house edge would not loose money in the long run.

I run a small bitcoin casino called fastbets.io. We should talk to see if there is a potential for a collaboration (feel free to email henry@fastbets.io).

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