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Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

nytimes.com

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Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#51

Post by braythwayt »

rebootthesystem wrote: post #18
kylen wrote: post #12

The phone is about consuming/producing content and that's what many popular apps (like FB, Instagram, etc) are all about. No FB app on the watch indicates that the standard FB experience doesnt work on the platform, in the same way it wouldnt work on your kettle. That doesnt mean the kettle is a failure. The watch is all about quick access to small, self-contained nuggets of information and simple actions. Previously…

Really? Are we at an age when taking the phone out of our pocket is an inconvenience? Frankly, I live my life in front of a computer on a desk. My calendar and a million other things are one click away and in a format far more convenient than a phone or a a watch. I think the watch will, in the long term, be a flop. Apple needs to find a real killer app for it or it is toast. I already have a $500 iPhone in my pocket…

> How many of you developed iPhone apps? Us? Over a dozen. How many of you are developing Apple Watch apps. Us? Zero. No interest in working for Apple for free.

I think this is the best point you’ve made. If we throw every other argument out, we’re left with the simple fact that the watch follows the phone, and the market for phone software has already commoditized itself into the toilet.

iOS is a dog’s breakfast. So what’s the lure for writing watch software? That the first players in have the least zeroth chance of becoming the next unicorn, one of the few apps actually turning into a sustainable business?

There will be exceptions, but I feel safe in predicting that most successful watch apps will be free or nearly fee accessories for some other business model, like ride sharing.

“Commoditize your complements.”—Joel Spolsky

Apple is the watch. Your software is the complementary product they will inexorably commoditize.

Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#52

Post by 1stop »

MeNotMe wrote: post #48
1stop wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I run 60km+ per week, I use wearables to track performance and do accurate heart rate training. I compete with my friends for distances, speeds, segments, Nike fuel any other metric we think is fun. I don't lack will power (when my wearables run out of battery I still run). So your comment sounds way off base to me. Just to give you a perspective you may not have seen.

Not sure how your example adds something to "many think".

"Many think" differently to what you said, as I illustrated. Which therefore actually defines wearables in "fitness" as a huge success, which is the exact opposite of the point you were making.

You have a whole industry built on wearables and fitness with millions of miles run/ridden/hiked/whatevered... That's hardly "non-usage".

Did you forget the point you were making?

If you need further convincing, look at the higher end of wearables, with Garmin, Polar, etc making specialised wearable devices, for specific sports and making a killing. Consumer-ising that space is surely a winning ticket. I mean that's essentially GoPros business model isn't it?

Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#53

Post by MeNotMe »

1stop wrote: post #52
MeNotMe wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how your example adds something to "many think".

"Many think" differently to what you said, as I illustrated. Which therefore actually defines wearables in "fitness" as a huge success, which is the exact opposite of the point you were making. You have a whole industry built on wearables and fitness with millions of miles run/ridden/hiked/whatevered... That's hardly "non-usage". Did you forget the point you were making? If you need further convincing, look at the hi…

Not to make this a point, as my initial "many" is weak on facts, but your example makes it "one person think", not many.

Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#55

Post by rebootthesystem »

amirmc wrote: post #19
rebootthesystem wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Are we at an age when taking the phone out of our pocket is an inconvenience? Frankly, I live my life in front of a computer on a desk. My calendar and a million other things are one click away and in a format far more convenient than a phone or a a watch. I think the watch will, in the long term, be a flop. Apple needs to find a real killer app for it or it is toast. I already have a $500 iPhone in my pocket…

> "Frankly, I live my life in front of a computer on a desk. My calendar and a million other things are one click away and in a format far more convenient than a phone ..." This exact argument also applied to smartphones, yet we've seen what can happen if you put a computer in people's pockets and let people figure things out. I'm not suggesting the watch will displace the phone (the way the phone can displace laptop…

The smart phone has a utility that is very different from that of a watch (or wearable). I don't think that comparison can be made.

> Selling bunches of them is enough to indicate that something will happen in this space

I don't disagree. I am saying that THIS Apple Watch feels like a flop in the long run. They could come out with Apple Watch 2 and knock it out of the park. Or, some other company could do it.

Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#56

Post by rebootthesystem »

braythwayt wrote: post #51
rebootthesystem wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Are we at an age when taking the phone out of our pocket is an inconvenience? Frankly, I live my life in front of a computer on a desk. My calendar and a million other things are one click away and in a format far more convenient than a phone or a a watch. I think the watch will, in the long term, be a flop. Apple needs to find a real killer app for it or it is toast. I already have a $500 iPhone in my pocket…

> How many of you developed iPhone apps? Us? Over a dozen. How many of you are developing Apple Watch apps. Us? Zero. No interest in working for Apple for free. I think this is the best point you’ve made. If we throw every other argument out, we’re left with the simple fact that the watch follows the phone, and the market for phone software has already commoditized itself into the toilet. iOS is a dog’s breakfast. So…

> I think this is the best point you’ve made. If we throw every other argument out, we’re left with the simple fact that the watch follows the phone, and the market for phone software has already commoditized itself into the toilet.

Probably so. Many of the developers who will reject what I am saying are not, at the same time, devoting life and treasure to the development of apps for the watch. The iPhone was very different. It was a gold rush. Many made millions selling fart apps. Most --the vast majority-- lost their shirts. And, having learned their lessons they remain cautious or completely uninterested when it comes to the watch.

One of the huge angles is that of the leash to the iPhone. This is the same reason I just bought my son a stand alone GPS for his car. Google and Apple maps and nav require network connectivity. Amazingly enough I've been in places not too far from home where we can't raise WiFi or a cell connection. Your great phone-based navigation software breaks down very quickly when you can't "phone home" for map updates.

Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#57

Post by rebootthesystem »

threeseed wrote: post #27
rebootthesystem wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Are we at an age when taking the phone out of our pocket is an inconvenience? Frankly, I live my life in front of a computer on a desk. My calendar and a million other things are one click away and in a format far more convenient than a phone or a a watch. I think the watch will, in the long term, be a flop. Apple needs to find a real killer app for it or it is toast. I already have a $500 iPhone in my pocket…

There already is a killer app: notifications. Yes pulling your pocket out is an inconvenience if every time you do so it's to find out that an email or text message is spam or unimportant. Likewise seeing what meeting you have next (and where it is) is a second on the watch. About 30 seconds on the phone. Who cares if you are going to make an Apple Watch app or not. Most developers aren't. Nor should they. Not every…

> Yes pulling your pocket out is an inconvenience if every time you do so it's to find out that an email or text message is spam or unimportant. Likewise seeing what meeting you have next (and where it is) is a second on the watch. About 30 seconds on the phone.

First. Do you own one?

Beyond that. Seriously. Please. Think about what you are saying a little bit. Is the technology owning you here?

If you need to take your phone out of your pocket so often that it is a nuisance...leave it on your desk.

If you get too many notifications you are not using them correctly.

Finally, I have thirty years as CEO of multiple tech companies and have conducted business across the US and internationally. I can't remember a single instance of having a schedule so complex that it required being leashed to an electronic device to the point that taking it out of my pocket became a nuisance.

Please, let's not exaggerate reality for the love of technology. I love technology and the Apple Watch is a marvel of what can be accomplished today. That is not being disputed here.

This is about a business case for this particular device, in it's present incarnation. I don't think it exists in the long run. I think they got a lot of sales because of the love for Apple and the idea of what could be. Now that it's been out there for a while people are probably not jumping on it at a rate that will sustain it as a business as it exists today. They might be able to come up with a new design that changes things, but I think the writing is on the wall for this one.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#58

Post by rebootthesystem »

Osmium wrote: post #23
rebootthesystem wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Are we at an age when taking the phone out of our pocket is an inconvenience? Frankly, I live my life in front of a computer on a desk. My calendar and a million other things are one click away and in a format far more convenient than a phone or a a watch. I think the watch will, in the long term, be a flop. Apple needs to find a real killer app for it or it is toast. I already have a $500 iPhone in my pocket…

> I think the watch will, in the long term, be a flop. Apple needs to find a real killer app for it or it is toast. There already are killer apps. Fitness is one. The question isn't if wearables are going to be a success (they already are), but just how smart and connected we need them to be: do you choose the Fitbit or the Apple Watch? etc. It seems that most objections to smart watches are due to price and size/aes…

>> Down-vote away. I know the truth hurts.

> If you get down votes, it'll be for the attitude, not the opinion...

You missed the joke I guess. On HN almost anything negative about Apple gets you a virtual hanging more often than not. I was being sarcastic. There are a lot of people that are invested in the Apple cult to the point of being hurt by the truth. Down-voting is a way to close their eyes to pretend reality isn't there. In that world Apple's shit don't stink, even when there's plenty of it to go around.

Re: Apple Waits as App Developers Study Who’s Buying Its Watch

#59

Post by 1stop »

MeNotMe wrote: post #53
1stop wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Many think" differently to what you said, as I illustrated. Which therefore actually defines wearables in "fitness" as a huge success, which is the exact opposite of the point you were making. You have a whole industry built on wearables and fitness with millions of miles run/ridden/hiked/whatevered... That's hardly "non-usage". Did you forget the point you were making? If you need further convincing, look at the hi…

Not to make this a point, as my initial "many" is weak on facts, but your example makes it "one person think", not many.

No, I sited the fact all these wearable apps have heaps of usage.

But yes, comments on the internet are "one person think". Good luck with the self-rationalisation you got going there.

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