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Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

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Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#11
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Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it ever was a question of tools, but rather who is allowed to use those tools.

I think it actually was. Central planning is a Bad Thing because Soviets did it and it went bad, so nowadays its inferiority is treated as an axiom. But back then optimization theory was just starting to develop and was never actually applied in practice, and we didn't have enough computing power, nor instant communication infrastructure. I think we should revisit the concept of central planning with algorithms doing…

There has been a partial attempt [1] to do central planning with computers.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#12
post #2

Since it's no longer a Free Market, might as well go with a planned economy - now that supercomputers allow for actual real-time planning.

We need to get better at writing software before we do that. The idea of putting software as it's written now in charge of planning a national economy is terrifying.

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#13
post #12
post #2

Since it's no longer a Free Market, might as well go with a planned economy - now that supercomputers allow for actual real-time planning.

We need to get better at writing software before we do that. The idea of putting software as it's written now in charge of planning a national economy is terrifying.

Well - the idea of putting the people who regularly crash economies in charge of writing that software is terrifying.

A good model would be an improvement on what we have now. But you need to talk to heterodox economists to get the good models, and that's unlikely to happen for political reasons.

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#15
post #5
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Earlier quoted context omitted.

There never was a Free Market. I second the idea of revisiting central planning with tools capable of doing proper optimization at scale.

I don't think it ever was a question of tools, but rather who is allowed to use those tools.

What will they actually optimize for is an excellent question. We have plenty of central planning, its just most people don't like it very much. Look at the intentional destruction and elimination of the american middle class or the general population of Greece or how the criminal justice system treats black people in the USA. Statistically, they're unlikely to optimize for you, for most values of you.

Also don't forget the somewhat more intractable philosophical problem of whats actually good for you vs what you superficially want vs what you actually want, and our recent history of spending trillions on PR to intentionally confuse people about those three. I think we can safely assume that it'll be very cheap and easy to keep almost everyone unhappy about "the" central plan, which will be weaponized by factions.

Looking at how the disease of Puritanism has infected most of our culture pretty deeply, you can expect a similar meme infection in a centrally planned economy. So even assuming there is a "True" ideal state, we'll have infections and need an immune system. Merely computing faster or more complicated models is like assuming yeast are diseased and whales are disease free merely because of size and complication differential. What we do know from biology is the more mono-cultural and rigid something is, the more likely it is to get wiped out, and the analogy to central planning would be it'll inevitably get wiped out by meme diseases, so the best long term central plan might ironically be to not centrally plan.

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#16
post #8
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There never was a Free Market. I second the idea of revisiting central planning with tools capable of doing proper optimization at scale.

Large corporations typically implement a form of central planning - that's what applications such as Oracle Hyperion and IBM Cognos are for - managing complex multidimensional models that integrate actual historical values with multiple forecast scenarios.

Another valid analogy with large corporations is if central planning was the optimum strategy, then extreme micromanagement from the top would be the optimum business strategy. Surely it would take top level supercomputers and programmers to run an entire country, but any random MBA with an Excel spreadsheet could run a business more successfully than a business without TPS reports and content-free numbers. So observationally, micromanagement and management by metric number should be a sign of a highly profitable and successful company, yet its usually associated with dying companies or companies only kept alive by what boils down to corruption (monopolies, licensing, regulation, revolving door between .com and .gov, etc).

If there was a solid argument WRT scaling explaining why the result would be different at extreme scale vs business scale then the picture might be brighter for central planning.

There are also growth rate issues where your two examples are unfortunately companies experiencing an implosion of mindshare, people run from those companies as fast as they can, not run toward them. That is probably just an unfortunate coincidence but does look bad for central planning PR. There must be some "cool companies" that centrally plan and are successful? Or maybe there aren't?

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#17
post #2

Since it's no longer a Free Market, might as well go with a planned economy - now that supercomputers allow for actual real-time planning.

This is actually an interesting hypothesis - has computing advanced enough to make central planning possible. I am not sure how you would test it though.

The biggest problems with central planning were never quite as much about the lack of computing power, but more about the incentives that go with that power structure. Politically, the central planner gets to reward all his friends and punish his enemies and deprive them of resources and opportunities. Even aside from the obvious implications on political liberty, getting the opportunity to do business in that environment is a matter of political connection, not merit, leading to stagnation.

I suppose, though, that you could at least use sufficiently advanced algorithms to monitor supply levels and inventories and sales to adjust prices so you can bring back some measure of the price-signaling mechanism that central planning has traditionally lacked... if the guy in charge isn't tempted to fiddle with prices for political reasons. Looking at some extant central-planning huggers like Tom Steyer (who wants to investigate/punish/tax oil firms because California regulations make gas more expensive than elsewhere in the nation) you can color me skeptical of the premise.

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#18

> see Reinhart and Rogoff 2010 Isn't that the famous study which turned out to be [edit: almost] completely wrong because of errors in the excel formulas? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt#Metho...

Entirely wrong? No. But the reported effect was somewhat exaggerated.

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#19
post #6
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it ever was a question of tools, but rather who is allowed to use those tools.

I think it actually was. Central planning is a Bad Thing because Soviets did it and it went bad, so nowadays its inferiority is treated as an axiom. But back then optimization theory was just starting to develop and was never actually applied in practice, and we didn't have enough computing power, nor instant communication infrastructure. I think we should revisit the concept of central planning with algorithms doing…

as a person who lived in yet another centrally planned country, let me tell you this, plain simply - it doesn't work. soviets failed, but so every other nation that went that way. let's call it slow but steady financial rotting that will bring any country down, given enough time. there are plenty of reasons for that, they are always the same, but for me one is most important - they all work with ideal person who wants to help the system, instead of disconnected greedy selfish individuals, that real society consist of.

this is of course valid for humans, who have all kinds of flaws, some more than others. so you propose to give power to software, who by principle always has... flaws. imagine how juicy this thing would be for hackers, who would have billions-big incentives from shady business people to nudge decisions in their favors... silly naive people :)

What I would suggest - let some state of the art simulation run along the humans, and evaluate its decisions after some time passes, to clearly see who made the right one, in long term. after there is some long term perception that computer is clear winner (definitely not below 10-20 year mark of steady performance), we can move that way. and always, always have some sort of semi-neutral commitee to oversee and accept/reject all important stuff (with necessary reasoning, not on whims of current most powerful one). make it as transparent as possible. -- do you think this is real? no way, when looking at how shady today's politics are done, be it US, europe or any other place...

Re: Is growth in the financial sector good for the economy?

#20
post #2

Since it's no longer a Free Market, might as well go with a planned economy - now that supercomputers allow for actual real-time planning.

This is actually an interesting hypothesis - has computing advanced enough to make central planning possible. I am not sure how you would test it though.

The reason central planning fails (in societies or in companies) is because the people doing the work at the "bottom" have a lot more knowledge about how things really work than the people making the decisions at the top. A lot of that knowledge isn't even easy to capture - it's tied up in skills, techniques, oral history and obscure trade secrets.

In other words: the problem isn't likely to be speed/power of the planning computers, but how you get the information that needs to be fed into them.

I think this could also explain why managers who worked their way up from the bottom tend to do well, whereas professional executives who are helicoptered in to companies fail.

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