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Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

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Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#61
post #40
post #6

As a PhD in physics - progress in pure physics is slowing down (or at least progress per scientist). The delay between a discovery in physics and a Nobel prize is getting bigger and bigger [1]. It's true for all fields, but the effect is particularly strong for physics. '''It is safe to say that late 1920s and early 1930s were the “Golden Age” of 20th century physics, when the progress was lightning-fast and new disc…

Do you think there's a limit on how much we can understand in physics/any field? My reasoning on this is that since everyone has a finite lifespan, understanding/work will be lost as the researcher retire, move to a different field, or die, unless this information is transmitted to someone else during their life time. However, as we understand more, we have to teach people more. This brings in two problems that I see…

I agree with your observations.

One of the biggest problem is fragmentation. People used to be "philosophers of the natural science", now they are experts in "implementations of quantum algorithms with cold ions". So its unlikely to get so many good people in one place (as the number of fields is astonishingly high) and to get progress between/outside of fields (many fields are a bit historical/arbitrary) - as many scientist (even eminent) lack of even basis knowledge in other sciences (or even - subfields). So things requiring bigger picture may be already out of scope.

When it comes to switching fields or dying - did you read: http://blog.computationalcomplexity.org/2015/07/will-our-und... ?

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#62

I am surprised no one has mentioned quantum information yet. Quantum information is the subfield of physics whose goal is to understand what new information processing tasks are possible/efficient that are not possible/inefficient in the quantum world. Two such tasks are quantum computing and quantum key distribution. This field was birthed in the early 80s and has seen steady progress since then. Various architectur…

Quantum information is indeed a new field. Yet, I wouldn't compare it with 20s or 70s. In the last 20 years there was hardly any paradigm shift in that matter (don't be fooled by poor science reporting/popularizing or scientist overadvertising their results, in search for fame and grants).

And for example, when I as attending conferences in quantum information (my PhD field), people were constantly lowering their expectations and making predictions more humble; much more "10 years ago we said it would be in 10 years; now we can say the same".

I don't claim that there is no progress. Just that is depressingly slow comparing to the frontier fields of science in engineering. (If it were fast, believe me, I would have stayed in physics.) Of course, future may be different, but who knows...

Compare it with e.g. DNA sequencing, where costs went down quite a few orders of magnitude in the last decade. Or image recognition, where in the last decade things though to be extremely hard (because of problems in 70s) like face recognition, image recognition etc - are now standard techniques.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#63
post #13

As someone who's been in physics for much of the last twenty years, I'd guess that things are going at about the same rate. I don't think that the rate is "crawling", though. If you look on log plots of parametrized experimental progress, progress remains linear, so it's a Moore's law like improvement on many fronts. The emergence of precision cosmology has really transformed astrophysics in the last twenty years. Th…

In terms of progress on fundamental physics (i.e., ignoring things like material science), this is a very slow crawl on any sensible absolute scale, and certainly vastly slower than progress was made up until the 1970s. With respect, I think you're just renormalizing to the glacial pace we've come to expect. The Standard Model (including the yet-to-be discovered Higgs and top quark) was completed in the mid '70s arou…

I agree that there's some renormalizing taking place.

From the particle physics end, the revolution stopped because accelerator technology stalled out. If the laser-wakefield (or similar) accelerators can pan out, there may be a resurgence of the 1950's era of progress.

Just because the Standard Model happens to have panned out doesn't mean that its experimental verification wasn't a triumph. The Standard Model didn't have to be true!

The solar neutrino thing is phenomenal, at least to me, we surely see CKM mixing in the quark sector, but to see leptons change flavor, and do so on such a grand scale is astounding. When the problem first came up, flavor violation wasn't even on the table.

Precision cosmology has really laid out that there's something really, really big about Physics that we're missing. Really big. And it says it with such statistical and systematic vehemence that even the most curmudgeonly skeptic (myself included) is forced to confront it. In combination with the Bullet Cluster, there's almost no escape from the conclusion that there's something really important to be found.

Totally agreed that parameter space, without qualifiers, is a vague term.

Some parameter spaces are more important than others. I'd argue that the absence of new signals at LHC, the absence of bright new lines in Fermi/GLAST data, the absence of new lines in ultra-high energy cosmic rays, the absence of any signal in any EDM experiment, the absence of any equivalence principle violation or anything else in the gravitational sector, the absence of any experimental signal for any dark matter candidate, the continued expected behavior of the Hulse-Taylor pulsar, etc. are all important, especially in light of the problems of CP-violation, the complete incompatibility of the Standard Model with General Relativity, and the extremely good agreement between observed cosmology/BBN with the \LambdaCDM model.

A lot of really good people have pushed really hard experimentally on entirely reasonable theories, and those ideas have been severely constrained. In my own field, precision tests of gravity, theory is forced to contort itself to avoid experimental constraint. LHC is putting the screws to supersymmetry; there's still plenty of room there, but there's a lot less than there was a few years ago.

As experimentalists, we've got little patience for contrived models of parameter space. As each experiment takes 5-10 years, we only get a few in our lifetime, so we try to make our work as meaningfully-impactful as we can.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#64
post #13

As someone who's been in physics for much of the last twenty years, I'd guess that things are going at about the same rate. I don't think that the rate is "crawling", though. If you look on log plots of parametrized experimental progress, progress remains linear, so it's a Moore's law like improvement on many fronts. The emergence of precision cosmology has really transformed astrophysics in the last twenty years. Th…

Given your perspective, what do you make of stuff like Umbral Moonshine http://arxiv.org/abs/1204.2779 and ER=EPR http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.0533 ?

In both cases, I'd be out of my professional depth to make any definitive statements about either paper. My expertise is much closer to experiment.

Maldecena and Susskind are both well regarded and accomplished.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#65
post #47
post #13

As someone who's been in physics for much of the last twenty years, I'd guess that things are going at about the same rate. I don't think that the rate is "crawling", though. If you look on log plots of parametrized experimental progress, progress remains linear, so it's a Moore's law like improvement on many fronts. The emergence of precision cosmology has really transformed astrophysics in the last twenty years. Th…

What are the assumptions behind "log plots of parametrized experimental progress"? What do these mean in the real world? To give an example of why "pouring money into it and getting slower and slower progress" could translate into linear progress on a log plot, imagine you have to pour in x² amount of (money, people, time) to get to level x of progress. In that case "we go slow" means, "we'll gobble up larger and lar…

At roughly constant inflation-adjusted budget, many experiments are getting factors of two in performance improvement today roughly as quickly as they were getting factors of two in the past.

The job market for physics has not changed substantially in the last twenty years.

By 'we go slow because we will go far', I meant only to emphasize that regular incremental improvements generally trump blitzkrieg efforts.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#66
post #62

I am surprised no one has mentioned quantum information yet. Quantum information is the subfield of physics whose goal is to understand what new information processing tasks are possible/efficient that are not possible/inefficient in the quantum world. Two such tasks are quantum computing and quantum key distribution. This field was birthed in the early 80s and has seen steady progress since then. Various architectur…

Quantum information is indeed a new field. Yet, I wouldn't compare it with 20s or 70s. In the last 20 years there was hardly any paradigm shift in that matter (don't be fooled by poor science reporting/popularizing or scientist overadvertising their results, in search for fame and grants). And for example, when I as attending conferences in quantum information (my PhD field), people were constantly lowering their exp…

I myself am getting at PhD in quantum information. I completely agree that the timeline for quantum computing was extremely optimistic 20 years ago. However, I think current estimates are much closer to the truth. We now have a much better understanding of the systems on which we are building QCs. Estimates of fault-tolerance thresholds have become much better. We have 20 years of experimental progress to extrapolate when we expect to hit these thresholds.

I agree that progress in the 20s and 70s was much faster. But they were grabbing onto low-hanging fruit. Building even a 'bad' quantum computer is several orders of magnitude more difficult task than building, say, a 486 processor. The degree of experimental control required is much much more. What I see looking back is steady progress towards greater experimental control in multiple systems and very frequent and steady achievements of milestones.

What you forget when you compare quantum computing with DNA sequencing or image recognitions is that quantum computing is at the bottom of current theoretical paradigm. When you do DNA sequencing the science of your instruments (eg. centrifuges) is not suspect. In QC everything is suspect; your system, your detection mechanisms, your control systems. If you normalize every field by its fundamental difficulty you will find that quantum information is keeping up with other fields.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#67
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add that to the fact there is no global dependency tree of "What we need to discover to make this practical technology possible", how can we be sure that existing/future research funds are focused in the areas needed to make the most valuable technologies available?

Is that why we're doing physics research? Practical technology?

Isn't it?

Understanding things is certainly great, but you can't even claim you understand something new if you can not use that new understanding to achieve something you couldn't before it.

Or, more clearly, pure theory is good for mathematicians, but scientists can not even claim a theory is new if it has no application.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#68
I did a BS in physics in the early 1990s, but I haven't kept up with current research.

Can someone recommend some good reading to catch up on what's been happening since then? I'd love a decent book about qm or cosmology that's not quite a textbook, but also takes more than a simplified approach aimed at people with no background in the field.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that why we're doing physics research? Practical technology?

Isn't it? Understanding things is certainly great, but you can't even claim you understand something new if you can not use that new understanding to achieve something you couldn't before it. Or, more clearly, pure theory is good for mathematicians, but scientists can not even claim a theory is new if it has no application.

Isn't it?

It's certainly not what I'm expecting. Even if it hadn't gone on to be central to our engineering, I would have liked to have known about general relativity or QCD.

Understanding things is certainly great, but you can't even claim you understand something new if you can not use that new understanding to achieve something you couldn't before it.

What do you mean by understand something new? This week we started to understand something new - understand many things new - about Pluto. Are you trying to claim that this isn't true unless we can use it somehow? What is it you're trying to say?

Or, more clearly, pure theory is good for mathematicians, but scientists can not even claim a theory is new if it has no application.

Is astronomy not a science? Or palaeontology? Or archaeology? Those are all observation-oriented sciences that don't conduct experiments but do gather information and develop knowledge.

I have no idea what it is you're trying to say about claim a theory is new - do you want to rephrase that? What would you say about the recent discover of pentaquarks? Pentaquarks are useless, but our knowledge of them is quite new.

Re: Ask HN: Is physics moving forward?

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that why we're doing physics research? Practical technology?

Isn't it? Understanding things is certainly great, but you can't even claim you understand something new if you can not use that new understanding to achieve something you couldn't before it. Or, more clearly, pure theory is good for mathematicians, but scientists can not even claim a theory is new if it has no application.

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