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Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

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Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#51

Post by ChuckMcM »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #17
wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

No you can't and that is a "good" thing in that you don't end up with short sellers driving the prices around in addition to the speculators.

Interesting sentiment analysis going on :-) Can someone provide the reasoning for how short selling makes for a better or improved (by some definition) market? I would be interested in your take on that.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#52

Post by shalmanese »

iolothebard wrote: post #44
ryanSrich wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're paying for no lease. You can get a 3-10 person office in a downtown SF with no lease. No other place offers that.

Daly City, SF without all the SF! Plus you can BART into the city and voilà, you can pretend you're in SF the entire time! WIN-WIN-WIN!

You've just been fired by the reddit board.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#53

Post by moron4hire »

wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

You keep your cash, wait for the crash, then buy up the leftovers at fire-sale prices.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#54

Post by moron4hire »

ortuna wrote: post #12
GordonS wrote: post #3

> With coffee bars, free beer and well-used communal spaces Beer, while working? What a good idea... or maybe not. Reminds me of 10-15 years ago when we'd have a pint or 2 at a local pub during lunch on Fridays. Nobody every got anything done on a Friday afternoon after that.

In case of the China Town WeWork in DC. They switched to cold brew coffee. I'm guessing you can't just have an open tap in the kitchens in DC?

IIRC, the problem was that for WeWork to be able to serve beer, they would have had to get a liquor license as a "private club". That aren't as onerous as full liquor licenses, but they do require you keep a membership roster (easy) with photos of each member (eh) and not admit non-members (no-go).

I might be thinking of something else entirely, though. Honestly, I prefer Cove. Free coffee and soda/seltzer, plus a more professional crowd. It's clean and open, but not trendy and overbaked. Plus, it's like half the price.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#55

Post by tetron »

My startup recently moved out of a WeWork location. The biggest problem I had with WeWork is that they treated their tenants a lot like Facebook treats it users: you are their product, not their customer. Some annoyances:

* A new "community manager" every 2 months. Either they move people around on purpose, or they had a lot of turnover, but either way it was confusing. Community managers ranged widely from "stickler for the rules" to "happy hour several times a week" to "invisible".

* Relentlessly flogging the mobile app, despite the fact that it the Android version crashed immediately on most phones.

* Daily spam of "top comments" from their wannabe social networking site, because I what I really want every day is to read about how the printer on the 3rd floor of the New York office is out of paper when I'm located in Boston.

* Hipster artwork that's funny the first time you see it and dull and juvenile the 50th time you walk pass it.

* Hipster furniture that's incredibly uncomfortable (because plush conference room chairs can't possible compete with a mismatched set of "retro" chairs apparently found in a junk shop.)

* Insufficient conference rooms, telephone booths and bathroom stalls

Of course, our location may be especially poorly planned/designed/operated, but the general target market seems to be the 20-something male unattached hipster entrepreneur with a "lifestyle startup"; if you're trying to get real work done you don't need all the petty distractions, so I'm not sure how durable the appeal of WeWork actually is.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#56

Post by shinymark »

ryanSrich wrote: post #33
shinymark wrote: post #23

I recently toured a new WeWork space in San Francisco. While beautiful, the price was absolutely bonkers. I say that in the context of a commercial real estate market that is booming in general.

You're paying for no lease. You can get a 3-10 person office in a downtown SF with no lease. No other place offers that.

For sure, that is an advantage. Lessors are also asking for huge deposits right now so not having to tie up a bunch of deposit cash is nice too.

Although this probably isn't applicable to many software startups, one downside of places like WeWork for my company is how they focus on selling space by the desk. In my business (videogames, including console) most developers have a desktop PC, two monitors, a TV, possibly a Wacom tablet, and multiple console dev kits on their desk. The "12 desk" office we were looking at with WeWork would comfortably fit 4-5 of us with our space needs. That made it a non-starter.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#57

Post by arfliw »

moron4hire wrote: post #5

Does WeWork pay to have these sorts of articles written? Because there are a lot of these sorts of places and they never get mentioned in these articles about WeWork. It makes it sound like WeWork is single-handedly reviving a concept that died with the first dotCom crash, yet it's really just the latest. The only other places they mention are Regus--making it out to be a shambling zombie form of its pre-dotCom bust…

Those places don't have a $10 Billion valuation. That gets articles written, not a novel idea.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#58

Post by guiomie »

eloff wrote: post #35
7Figures2Commas wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of opportunities to bet against many of these markets, some more direct than others. To bet against the Canadian housing market, for instance, you could look at shorting vulnerable financial institutions (Canadian banks and lenders with exposure to the Canadian housing market). You could also look at the Canadian dollar, which could conceivably fall if there's a housing crash. Private startups are ob…

Canadian banks are in good shape though, they weathered the 2008 storm easily. Mortgages are limited to 25 years in Canada and you need some 20% down IIRC. I do think there is a housing bubble, especially in Vancouver, but it's not clear to me how one could bet against it. And there always the chance that the prices are sustainable, they are positively mild compared to Zurich or Tokyo or San Francisco.

I know cases of people having a 10% down, they got a loan from the bank to pay for the CMHC insurance.
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