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Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

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Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#31

Post by x5n1 »

fredkbloggs wrote: post #24
wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

> But who supplies the VC's with money? Ultimately, all "money" these days is supplied by central bankers. There aren't a lot of good ways to short this stuff, at least if you aren't someone like BlackRock. That's especially unfortunate because it means no one is going to make money on the downside, offsetting others' losses. In every transaction there is still a winner or a loser, it's just that in this case the win…

The bank always wins. It's funny we talk about central bankers, but they are like a shadowy supra-government syndicate pretty much always winning at the cost of everyone else. And yet no one asks why.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#32

Post by wjnc »

fredkbloggs wrote: post #24
wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

> But who supplies the VC's with money? Ultimately, all "money" these days is supplied by central bankers. There aren't a lot of good ways to short this stuff, at least if you aren't someone like BlackRock. That's especially unfortunate because it means no one is going to make money on the downside, offsetting others' losses. In every transaction there is still a winner or a loser, it's just that in this case the win…

Can you draw the link from central bankers operations to the inflow of cash to VC's? Because most CB operations are either setting rates (where I understand they at least have to stay in between some bandwidth the market will appreciate, or else face a situation like Switzerland), or transactions buying assets (mainly bonds).

Both do not directly accomplish the inflow of money into VC. VC's don't leverage (no banking license). I guess VC-firms don't borrow money at 1%, because no collateral?

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#33

Post by ryanSrich »

shinymark wrote: post #23

I recently toured a new WeWork space in San Francisco. While beautiful, the price was absolutely bonkers. I say that in the context of a commercial real estate market that is booming in general.

You're paying for no lease. You can get a 3-10 person office in a downtown SF with no lease. No other place offers that.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#34

Post by TheGRS »

eli wrote: post #9
moron4hire wrote: post #5

Does WeWork pay to have these sorts of articles written? Because there are a lot of these sorts of places and they never get mentioned in these articles about WeWork. It makes it sound like WeWork is single-handedly reviving a concept that died with the first dotCom crash, yet it's really just the latest. The only other places they mention are Regus--making it out to be a shambling zombie form of its pre-dotCom bust…

Did we read the same article? I really doubt WeWork is happy about the WSJ pointing out how much they look like a company about to take a spectacular fall. That wasn't quite a hit piece, but it was not a favorable article.

They usually say that any press is good press. I wasn't aware of WeWork's existence until this article.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#35

Post by eloff »

7Figures2Commas wrote: post #25
wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

There are plenty of opportunities to bet against many of these markets, some more direct than others. To bet against the Canadian housing market, for instance, you could look at shorting vulnerable financial institutions (Canadian banks and lenders with exposure to the Canadian housing market). You could also look at the Canadian dollar, which could conceivably fall if there's a housing crash. Private startups are ob…

Canadian banks are in good shape though, they weathered the 2008 storm easily. Mortgages are limited to 25 years in Canada and you need some 20% down IIRC.

I do think there is a housing bubble, especially in Vancouver, but it's not clear to me how one could bet against it. And there always the chance that the prices are sustainable, they are positively mild compared to Zurich or Tokyo or San Francisco.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#37

Post by TheGRS »

angrybits wrote: post #16
GordonS wrote: post #3

> With coffee bars, free beer and well-used communal spaces Beer, while working? What a good idea... or maybe not. Reminds me of 10-15 years ago when we'd have a pint or 2 at a local pub during lunch on Fridays. Nobody every got anything done on a Friday afternoon after that.

We had beer taps at my previous job, and nobody drank during business hours even though they could have. Any work past 5 or so might have been under the influence from time to time, but we really only drank in any quantity after quittin' time.

Pretty much the same at my current place, most people won't use the kegs until its an appropriate time. I've had a beer at lunch or late afternoon a few times though and its never made me feel less productive. Sipping on a beer while coding is a nice experience imo.

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#38

Post by [deleted] »

fredkbloggs wrote: post #24
wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

> But who supplies the VC's with money? Ultimately, all "money" these days is supplied by central bankers. There aren't a lot of good ways to short this stuff, at least if you aren't someone like BlackRock. That's especially unfortunate because it means no one is going to make money on the downside, offsetting others' losses. In every transaction there is still a winner or a loser, it's just that in this case the win…

[deleted]

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#39

Post by notahacker »

7Figures2Commas wrote: post #25
wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

There are plenty of opportunities to bet against many of these markets, some more direct than others. To bet against the Canadian housing market, for instance, you could look at shorting vulnerable financial institutions (Canadian banks and lenders with exposure to the Canadian housing market). You could also look at the Canadian dollar, which could conceivably fall if there's a housing crash. Private startups are ob…

On the second point, the correlations between hyped startups and established software vendors often isn't that strong. It doesn't necessarily need a major crash for markets to decide that Uber actually isn't worth 40% of the current global taxi market.

Indeed in some cases there's the distinct possibility the correlation goes the other was and profitable public incumbent tech providers will benefit from the loss-making VC-funded upstart unicorns in their market crashing and burning

Re: Now Worth $10B, Is WeWork a 2000 Redux?

#40

Post by philfrasty »

wjnc wrote: post #10

(big imho-post) Oh, I wish someone could explain to me how I can practically short many of these bubbles that come around HN daily. China, the many tech-unicorns, the housing market in Canada. Enough chances to short something succesfully. That whole 'private-IPO' thing makes the 'valued at' so much less worth, since you can't short them, information is private, no efficient market hypothesis in play (if any). I only…

There is an interesting answer from Mark Cuban on Quora about how he preserved his money during the Dot-Com crash... http://www.quora.com/How-did-Mark-Cuban-save-his-wealth-from...
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